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Sorry this is so late, but work was hell on Sunday and Monday, and I simply didn't have time to finish composing it until today. The results of the games on Monday and Tuesday do not factor into this edition, however.
I don't really have too much to say about the state of the league. It's pretty apparent who the top teams are, who the worst team is, and who the pack of mediocrity piled up in the middle is comprised of.
Follow the jump for an increasingly gloomy forecast.
Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
Kansas | 1 | 16-2 | NCAA | 8 | 4 | 3 | L-1 | Baylor | Davidson | Bill Self |
Missouri | 2 | 15-3 | NCAA | 12 | 7 | 8 | W-1 | Baylor | Oklahoma State | Frank Haith |
Baylor | 3 | 13-5 | NCAA | 3 | 9 | 11 | W-2 | West Virginia | Missouri | Scott Drew |
Texas | 4 | 11-7 | Bubble | 63 | 20 | 20 | L-1 | Temple | Oregon State | Rick Barnes |
Iowa State | 5 | 10-8 | Bubble | 50 | 36 | 41 | W-1 | Kansas | Drake | Fred Hoiberg |
Kansas State | 6 | 9-9 | Bubble | 41 | 25 | 23 | L-1 | Missouri | Oklahoma (2) | Frank Martin |
Oklahoma | 7 | 7-11 | NIT | 70 | 77 | 72 | W-1 | Kansas State (2) | Texas A&M | Lon Kruger |
Oklahoma State | 8 | 5-13 | None | 116 | 112 | 100 | L-1 | Missouri | Texas A&M | Travis Ford |
Texas A&M | 9 | 4-14 | None | 142 | 113 | 116 | W-1 | Oklahoma | Rice | Billy Kennedy |
Texas Tech | 10 | 0-18 | None | 196 | 242 | 222 | L-8 | North Texas | DePaul | Billy Gillispie |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
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Discussion
Yeah, you read that right. For the first time all season, OUTLOOK no longer thinks the Cats will do better than they were picked in the preseason coaches poll. Being swept by Oklahoma tends to have that effect.
KU's numbers took an obvious hit, but nothing significant. Tech's numbers are on the upswing, but not its prospects for a win. Iowa State is the big mover, while the Cats are staring at the bubble, barring a turnaround.
The combined effect of two games OUTLOOK failed to predict accurately (KU @ ISU, OU @ KSU) is that the model has flipped on the next game in Ames, now predicting an Iowa State win (presciently, as it turned out).
That's the only major change from the previous set of predictions, however.
GAMER: Now has Baylor losing at Iowa State, Kansas State losing at Texas A&M and Texas winning at Oklahoma State.
Pomeroy: Now has Kansas State losing at Iowa State.
Sagarin: Now has Kansas State losing at Iowa State.
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Self-Evaluation
As I mentioned above, OUTLOOK failed to predict Iowa State's win (even though I mentioned in the previous writeup that it was an obvious trap game), but that's the kind of miss I can enjoy.
However, it also failed to predict Oklahoma's improbable and inexplicable sweep of K-State, nor Lon Kruger's annexation and ownership of all things Frank Martin. That I didn't see coming, nor did I enjoy it whatsoever.
Slightly less than halfway through the season, I'm sitting right at 75 percent for a pick rate, which is a little below where I'd like to be. Time to pick it up, computers.
They're unanimously on road teams Baylor, Missouri and Oklahoma State this week. That's always a bit of a warning flag to me, so given that two of those already are in the books, look out, Bears.
That leaves Iowa State and Kansas as prohibitive home favorites, and after what we've seen the past few weeks, neither outcome should differ from those predictions.
Cumulative pick record: 30-10 (.750)
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Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- S — Sagarin pure points predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)
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Predicted Outcomes
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