BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.31.12


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.30.2012)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#8 Kansas Jayhawks 7 1 17 4
#6 Baylor Bears 6 2 19 2
#4 Missouri Tigers 6 2 19 2
Iowa State Cyclones 5 3 15 6
Kansas State Wildcats 4 4 15 5
Oklahoma Sooners 3 5 13 7
Texas Longhorns 3 5 13 8
Texas A&M Aggies 3 5 12 8
Oklahoma State Cowboys 3 5 10 11
Texas Tech Red Raiders 0 8 7 13

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Sorry this is so late, but work was hell on Sunday and Monday, and I simply didn't have time to finish composing it until today. The results of the games on Monday and Tuesday do not factor into this edition, however.

I don't really have too much to say about the state of the league. It's pretty apparent who the top teams are, who the worst team is, and who the pack of mediocrity piled up in the middle is comprised of.

Follow the jump for an increasingly gloomy forecast.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-2 NCAA 8 4 3 L-1 Baylor Davidson Bill Self
Missouri 2 15-3 NCAA 12 7 8 W-1 Baylor Oklahoma State Frank Haith
Baylor 3 13-5 NCAA 3 9 11 W-2 West Virginia Missouri Scott Drew
Texas 4 11-7 Bubble 63 20 20 L-1 Temple Oregon State Rick Barnes
Iowa State 5 10-8 Bubble 50 36 41 W-1 Kansas Drake Fred Hoiberg
Kansas State 6 9-9 Bubble 41 25 23 L-1 Missouri Oklahoma (2) Frank Martin
Oklahoma 7 7-11 NIT 70 77 72 W-1 Kansas State (2) Texas A&M Lon Kruger
Oklahoma State 8 5-13 None 116 112 100 L-1 Missouri Texas A&M Travis Ford
Texas A&M 9 4-14 None 142 113 116 W-1 Oklahoma Rice Billy Kennedy
Texas Tech 10 0-18 None 196 242 222 L-8 North Texas DePaul Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

Yeah, you read that right. For the first time all season, OUTLOOK no longer thinks the Cats will do better than they were picked in the preseason coaches poll. Being swept by Oklahoma tends to have that effect.

KU's numbers took an obvious hit, but nothing significant. Tech's numbers are on the upswing, but not its prospects for a win. Iowa State is the big mover, while the Cats are staring at the bubble, barring a turnaround.

The combined effect of two games OUTLOOK failed to predict accurately (KU @ ISU, OU @ KSU) is that the model has flipped on the next game in Ames, now predicting an Iowa State win (presciently, as it turned out).

That's the only major change from the previous set of predictions, however.

GAMER: Now has Baylor losing at Iowa State, Kansas State losing at Texas A&M and Texas winning at Oklahoma State.

Pomeroy: Now has Kansas State losing at Iowa State.

Sagarin: Now has Kansas State losing at Iowa State.

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Self-Evaluation

As I mentioned above, OUTLOOK failed to predict Iowa State's win (even though I mentioned in the previous writeup that it was an obvious trap game), but that's the kind of miss I can enjoy.

However, it also failed to predict Oklahoma's improbable and inexplicable sweep of K-State, nor Lon Kruger's annexation and ownership of all things Frank Martin. That I didn't see coming, nor did I enjoy it whatsoever.

Slightly less than halfway through the season, I'm sitting right at 75 percent for a pick rate, which is a little below where I'd like to be. Time to pick it up, computers.

They're unanimously on road teams Baylor, Missouri and Oklahoma State this week. That's always a bit of a warning flag to me, so given that two of those already are in the books, look out, Bears.

That leaves Iowa State and Kansas as prohibitive home favorites, and after what we've seen the past few weeks, neither outcome should differ from those predictions.

Cumulative pick record: 30-10 (.750)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

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Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04
4-1 (.800)
52 A&M
61 Baylor
49 Oklahoma
87 Missouri
71 Texas
77 I-State
49 K-State
67 Kansas
59 Tech
67 O-State
01.07
3-2 (.600)
59 Missouri
75 K-State
72 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
74 I-State
50 A&M
73 Baylor
60 Tech
49 O-State
58 Texas
01.09-01.11
4-1 (.800)
65 Oklahoma
72 O-State
75 Baylor
73 K-State
76 Missouri
69 I-State
81 Kansas
46 Tech
51 A&M
61 Texas
01.14
4-1 (.800)
65 O-State
106 Baylor
73 I-State
82 Kansas
73 Texas
84 Missouri
73 K-State
82 Oklahoma
54 Tech
67 A&M
01.16-01.18
5-0 (1.000)
74 Baylor
92 Kansas
51 A&M
70 Missouri
55 Tech
64 Oklahoma
68 O-State
71 I-State
80 Texas
84 K-State
01.21
3-2 (.600)
89 Missouri
88 Baylor
66 K-State
58 O-State
75 Oklahoma
81 A&M (OT)
76 I-State
52 Tech
69 Kansas
66 Texas
01.23-01.25
4-1 (.800)
54 A&M
64 Kansas
77 Baylor
65 Oklahoma
55 I-State
62 Texas
72 Missouri
79 O-State
69 K-State
47 Tech
01.28
3-2 (.600)
71 Texas
76 Baylor
64 Kansas
72 I-State
63 Oklahoma
60 K-State
50 Tech
63 Missouri
61 O-State
76 A&M
01.30-02.01
Missouri (GPS)
@ Texas
K-State
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State (GPS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ A&M
02.04
A&M
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ O-State
I-State (P)
@ Oklahoma (GS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.06-02.08
Missouri (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (PS)
@ A&M (G)
Tech
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Kansas (PS)
@ Baylor (G)
02.11
A&M
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.13-02.15
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
Texas (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech (G)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.18
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ O-State
Missouri (GPS)
@ A&M
02.20-02.22
Baylor (G)
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
02.25
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (G)
@ Kansas (PS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.27-02.29
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (PS)
@ A&M (G)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
03.03
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State (G)
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech
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