BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.27.12


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.26.2012)


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Now that's more like it. The Big 12 has returned to some semblance of normalcy.

KU is back in its familiar position, far ahead of the pack. K-State is in the top four, where it always finishes the season under Frank Martin. Baylor and Missouri are humbled, neé undefeated.

Iowa State remains slightly ahead of the truly mediocre teams, with a chance to punctuate itself as so much more with an upset of KU tomorrow. Texas and Oklahoma State are clawing to remain relevant.

Oklahoma and Texas A&M are proving to be who we thought they were; the Sooners before the season started, the Aggies just before conference play began. And Texas Tech is wishing it had gone to the Pac-12 after all.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 17-1 NCAA 7 2 2 W-10 Baylor Davidson Bill Self
Missouri 2 15-3 NCAA 13 8 8 L-1 Baylor Oklahoma State Frank Haith
Baylor 3 13-5 NCAA 3 9 11 W-1 West Virginia Missouri Scott Drew
Kansas State 4 11-7 NCAA 28 16 19 W-3 Missouri Oklahoma Frank Martin
Texas 5 11-7 Bubble 67 24 24 W-1 Temple Oregon State Rick Barnes
Iowa State 6 8-10 Bubble 58 45 42 L-1 Texas Drake Fred Hoiberg
Oklahoma 7 6-12 NIT 87 83 79 L-2 Kansas State Texas A&M Lon Kruger
Oklahoma State 8 5-13 None 102 99 94 W-1 Missouri Pittsburgh Travis Ford
Texas A&M 9 4-14 None 152 123 122 L-1 Oklahoma Rice Billy Kennedy
Texas Tech 10 0-18 None 212 256 236 L-7 North Texas DePaul Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

Once again, no changes in projected seed order. Just a one-game adjustment in win-loss record to account for the Oklahoma State-over-Missouri upset.

This is starting to feel like one of the most boring BIG 12 OUTLOOK seasons I can remember.

OUTLOOK decided pretty early on who was good, who was terrible and where the teams in between fell, and it has yet to deviate even moderately from that course. It either will be amazingly prescient or incredibly wrong.

A big game looms tomorrow between the second-hottest team in the league (us, at a whopping three wins in a row) and the team on the second-longest losing streak (OU, at just two straight losses). I'd Sooner we win.

GAMER: Now has Baylor winning at Iowa State and Texas losing at Oklahoma State.

Pomeroy: No changes.

Sagarin: No changes.

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Self-Evaluation

Uh, Missouri, what the hell was that? Way to ruin the perfect week I had going, you derp-faces.

That minor, unforeseen deviation aside, OUTLOOK nailed the other four games with a unanimous margin.

It feels as though some things are starting to settle down with the model, as long as teams don't let Le'Bryan Nash light them up from the perimeter. The man, he Haith me.

I would expect 4-1 efforts or better for most of the installments from here on out, with perhaps the rare 3-2 outing when most of the better teams are on the road. That should make for one of my best prediction seasons yet.

I feel pretty safe picking Baylor, K-State and Missouri this week. Texas A&M, a little less so, considering OSU is riding some momentum, but OSU has been bad on the road and the Aggies showed something at KU.

It goes without saying that if aTm is able to slow things down and muddy it up a bit, it will win, but if OSU is allowed to score more than 60, look for the Pokes to win in their last trip to College Station.

The Iowa State-Kansas game is anyone's guess. It's a popular upset pick and Hilton Magic seems about due to strike, but it's hard to bet against Bill Self in any road venue when he's only lost seven road games in five years.

Cumulative pick record: 27-8 (.771)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

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Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04
4-1 (.800)
52 A&M
61 Baylor
49 Oklahoma
87 Missouri
71 Texas
77 I-State
49 K-State
67 Kansas
59 Tech
67 O-State
01.07
3-2 (.600)
59 Missouri
75 K-State
72 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
74 I-State
50 A&M
73 Baylor
60 Tech
49 O-State
58 Texas
01.09-01.11
4-1 (.800)
65 Oklahoma
72 O-State
75 Baylor
73 K-State
76 Missouri
69 I-State
81 Kansas
46 Tech
51 A&M
61 Texas
01.14
4-1 (.800)
65 O-State
106 Baylor
73 I-State
82 Kansas
73 Texas
84 Missouri
73 K-State
82 Oklahoma
54 Tech
67 A&M
01.16-01.18
5-0 (1.000)
74 Baylor
92 Kansas
51 A&M
70 Missouri
55 Tech
64 Oklahoma
68 O-State
71 I-State
80 Texas
84 K-State
01.21
3-2 (.600)
89 Missouri
88 Baylor
66 K-State
58 O-State
75 Oklahoma
81 A&M (OT)
76 I-State
52 Tech
69 Kansas
66 Texas
01.23-01.25
4-1 (.800)
54 A&M
64 Kansas
77 Baylor
65 Oklahoma
55 I-State
62 Texas
72 Missouri
79 O-State
69 K-State
47 Tech
01.28
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ I-State (G)
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
01.30-02.01
Missouri (GPS)
@ Texas
K-State (PS)
@ I-State (G)
O-State (GPS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ A&M
02.04
A&M
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ O-State
I-State (P)
@ Oklahoma (GS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.06-02.08
Missouri (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (PS)
@ A&M (G)
Tech
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Kansas (PS)
@ Baylor (G)
02.11
A&M
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.13-02.15
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
Texas (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech (G)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.18
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Missouri (GPS)
@ A&M
02.20-02.22
Baylor (G)
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
02.25
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (G)
@ Kansas (PS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.27-02.29
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
03.03
Baylor (GPS)
@ I-State
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech
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