BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.23.12


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.22.2012)


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As expected, the conference has separated into two groupings at this point, one-third of the way through the regular season: the haves (.500 or better in Big 12 play) and the have-nots (all 2-4 or worse).

The former will continue to feast on the latter, BIG 12 OUTLOOK predicts, although one interesting case study will come quickly this week: the return game of Iowa State at Texas.

OUTLOOK still is very high on Texas, projecting them now to defeat Baylor at home, tie the Cats in conference record and beat Iowa State out for the fifth seed. That would put the Horns in the Big Dance, perhaps.

But they have to avenge their conference-opening loss to the Cyclones this week. If ISU gets the sweep, OUTLOOK likely will have its first major seed shakeup in weeks.

And I think we all realize what is happening at the top of the standings after Baylor laid its two-part egg, and it's perfectly disgusting to contemplate, so I shan't discuss it further. Curse them both, sayeth I.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 17-1 NCAA 9 2 2 W-9 Baylor Davidson Bill Self
Missouri 2 16-2 NCAA 10 7 7 W-4 Baylor Kansas State Frank Haith
Baylor 3 13-5 NCAA 3 10 13 L-2 West Virginia Missouri Scott Drew
Kansas State 4 11-7 NCAA 28 19 19 W-2 Missouri Oklahoma Frank Martin
Texas 5 11-7 Bubble 68 24 25 L-3 Temple Oregon State Rick Barnes
Iowa State 6 8-10 Bubble 53 44 42 W-2 Texas Drake Fred Hoiberg
Oklahoma 7 6-12 NIT 71 83 73 L-1 Kansas State Texas A&M Lon Kruger
Oklahoma State 8 4-14 None 124 115 107 L-3 Oklahoma Pittsburgh Travis Ford
Texas A&M 9 4-14 None 159 130 130 W-1 Oklahoma Rice Billy Kennedy
Texas Tech 10 0-18 None 217 242 229 L-6 North Texas Texas A&M Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

OUTLOOK now appears prescient for jumping Missouri ahead of Baylor two days ago, doesn't it? The Tigers continue to put ground between them and the Bears in this edition as the latter's numbers tumble.

Meanwhile, all the bottom four teams are continuing to plummet by every measure except Texas A&M, which regained a modicum of self-respect against Oklahoma on Saturday.

Don't be fooled, though. The Aggies burst appears temporary, unless OSU goes into even more of a freefall than it appears the Cowboys already are experiencing.

GAMER: Now has Baylor losing at Iowa State, Missouri winning at Kansas, and Texas winning at Oklahoma State and losing at Texas A&M.

Pomeroy: Now has Baylor losing at Texas and Iowa State winning at Oklahoma.

Sagarin: No changes.

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Self-Evaluation

Well, I had four road teams winning. It just was the wrong combination of four.

I did point out that the Baylor loss was somewhat predictable when you factor in what Baylor historically has been: a massive underachiever. Too bad computers can't make those subjective judgments.

As for Texas A&M over Oklahoma, that was patently obvious. The Aggies are bad, but not near as bad as OUTLOOK has been making them out to be. They'll pick a few more off at home before all is said and done.

So, it wasn't a very good installment (tied for my worst, actually), but at least the margins were close. One game went to overtime and the other was decided by a point.

I feel good about this week, however. For starters, all the picks are unanimous. Second, they all meet the eye test.

Only Iowa State over Texas appears to be a plausible non-predicted outcome, but the Longhorns are playing better during this three-game losing streak and seem due to break through.

Kansas will roll in ugly fashion, while K-State and Missouri appear unlikely to be challenged significantly.

I suppose Baylor could continue derping all over the place and drop one in Norman, but I suspect they're simply too talented to lose that game. Before we all overreact, they did just lose to the two best teams in the conference.

Cumulative pick record: 23-7 (.767)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

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Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04
4-1 (.800)
52 A&M
61 Baylor
49 Oklahoma
87 Missouri
71 Texas
77 I-State
49 K-State
67 Kansas
59 Tech
67 O-State
01.07
3-2 (.600)
59 Missouri
75 K-State
72 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
74 I-State
50 A&M
73 Baylor
60 Tech
49 O-State
58 Texas
01.09-01.11
4-1 (.800)
65 Oklahoma
72 O-State
75 Baylor
73 K-State
76 Missouri
69 I-State
81 Kansas
46 Tech
51 A&M
61 Texas
01.14
4-1 (.800)
65 O-State
106 Baylor
73 I-State
82 Kansas
73 Texas
84 Missouri
73 K-State
82 Oklahoma
54 Tech
67 A&M
01.16-01.18
5-0 (1.000)
74 Baylor
92 Kansas
51 A&M
70 Missouri
55 Tech
64 Oklahoma
68 O-State
71 I-State
80 Texas
84 K-State
01.21
3-2 (.600)
89 Missouri
88 Baylor
66 K-State
58 O-State
75 Oklahoma
81 A&M (OT)
76 I-State
52 Tech
69 Kansas
66 Texas
01.23-01.25
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
01.28
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ I-State (G)
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
01.30-02.01
Missouri (GPS)
@ Texas
K-State (PS)
@ I-State (G)
O-State (GPS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ A&M
02.04
A&M
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ O-State
I-State (P)
@ Oklahoma (GS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.06-02.08
Missouri (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (PS)
@ A&M (G)
Tech
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Kansas (PS)
@ Baylor (G)
02.11
A&M
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.13-02.15
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
Texas (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech (G)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.18
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ O-State
Missouri (GPS)
@ A&M
02.20-02.22
Baylor (G)
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
02.25
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (G)
@ Kansas (PS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.27-02.29
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
03.03
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State (G)
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech
X
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