BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.23.12
by BracketCat on Jan 23, 2012 12:00 AM CST
in Men's Basketball
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As expected, the conference has separated into two groupings at this point, one-third of the way through the regular season: the haves (.500 or better in Big 12 play) and the have-nots (all 2-4 or worse).
The former will continue to feast on the latter, BIG 12 OUTLOOK predicts, although one interesting case study will come quickly this week: the return game of Iowa State at Texas.
OUTLOOK still is very high on Texas, projecting them now to defeat Baylor at home, tie the Cats in conference record and beat Iowa State out for the fifth seed. That would put the Horns in the Big Dance, perhaps.
But they have to avenge their conference-opening loss to the Cyclones this week. If ISU gets the sweep, OUTLOOK likely will have its first major seed shakeup in weeks.
And I think we all realize what is happening at the top of the standings after Baylor laid its two-part egg, and it's perfectly disgusting to contemplate, so I shan't discuss it further. Curse them both, sayeth I.
| Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
| Kansas | 1 | 17-1 | NCAA | 9 | 2 | 2 | W-9 | Baylor | Davidson | Bill Self |
| Missouri | 2 | 16-2 | NCAA | 10 | 7 | 7 | W-4 | Baylor | Kansas State | Frank Haith |
| Baylor | 3 | 13-5 | NCAA | 3 | 10 | 13 | L-2 | West Virginia | Missouri | Scott Drew |
| Kansas State | 4 | 11-7 | NCAA | 28 | 19 | 19 | W-2 | Missouri | Oklahoma | Frank Martin |
| Texas | 5 | 11-7 | Bubble | 68 | 24 | 25 | L-3 | Temple | Oregon State | Rick Barnes |
| Iowa State | 6 | 8-10 | Bubble | 53 | 44 | 42 | W-2 | Texas | Drake | Fred Hoiberg |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 6-12 | NIT | 71 | 83 | 73 | L-1 | Kansas State | Texas A&M | Lon Kruger |
| Oklahoma State | 8 | 4-14 | None | 124 | 115 | 107 | L-3 | Oklahoma | Pittsburgh | Travis Ford |
| Texas A&M | 9 | 4-14 | None | 159 | 130 | 130 | W-1 | Oklahoma | Rice | Billy Kennedy |
| Texas Tech | 10 | 0-18 | None | 217 | 242 | 229 | L-6 | North Texas | Texas A&M | Billy Gillispie |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
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Discussion
OUTLOOK now appears prescient for jumping Missouri ahead of Baylor two days ago, doesn't it? The Tigers continue to put ground between them and the Bears in this edition as the latter's numbers tumble.
Meanwhile, all the bottom four teams are continuing to plummet by every measure except Texas A&M, which regained a modicum of self-respect against Oklahoma on Saturday.
Don't be fooled, though. The Aggies burst appears temporary, unless OSU goes into even more of a freefall than it appears the Cowboys already are experiencing.
GAMER: Now has Baylor losing at Iowa State, Missouri winning at Kansas, and Texas winning at Oklahoma State and losing at Texas A&M.
Pomeroy: Now has Baylor losing at Texas and Iowa State winning at Oklahoma.
Sagarin: No changes.
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Self-Evaluation
Well, I had four road teams winning. It just was the wrong combination of four.
I did point out that the Baylor loss was somewhat predictable when you factor in what Baylor historically has been: a massive underachiever. Too bad computers can't make those subjective judgments.
As for Texas A&M over Oklahoma, that was patently obvious. The Aggies are bad, but not near as bad as OUTLOOK has been making them out to be. They'll pick a few more off at home before all is said and done.
So, it wasn't a very good installment (tied for my worst, actually), but at least the margins were close. One game went to overtime and the other was decided by a point.
I feel good about this week, however. For starters, all the picks are unanimous. Second, they all meet the eye test.
Only Iowa State over Texas appears to be a plausible non-predicted outcome, but the Longhorns are playing better during this three-game losing streak and seem due to break through.
Kansas will roll in ugly fashion, while K-State and Missouri appear unlikely to be challenged significantly.
I suppose Baylor could continue derping all over the place and drop one in Norman, but I suspect they're simply too talented to lose that game. Before we all overreact, they did just lose to the two best teams in the conference.
Cumulative pick record: 23-7 (.767)
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Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8-percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- S — Sagarin pure points predictor rankings (home-court advantage is taken into account)
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Predicted Outcomes
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Comments
So Baylor ends up what, 14-4? Maybe 13-5 given that they'll completely derp one game. Helluva record, but yeah, that is underwhelming.
How did the Cats loose to them again? Grrrr.
"If you don't want to work, become a reporter. That awful power, the public opinion of the nation, was created by a horde of self-complacent simpletons who failed at ditch digging and shoemaking and fetched up journalism on their way to the poorhouse." - Mark Twain
BOYCOTT ESPN!
They didn't play lazy against the cats.
They played an unbelievably lazy game against MU.
by Itchy n Scratchy on Jan 23, 2012 9:17 AM CST up reply actions
I guess so if you only look at the rebounds
under the theory that a smaller team should NEVER outrebound a larger team. But on the offensive end, Baylor actually played pretty sharp. They took good shots, (shot over 50% from the field, 44% from 3-pt range) and when they had empty possessions, it was often because Mizzou made a play to steal the ball (11 of BU’s 19 turnovers were MU steals).
It easy to look at the talent and simply assume that if Baylor lost at home to a smaller team, it must be because they were lazy. But I think Baylor played a good game; it just was not good enough to beat the absurd play of Ratliffe and Pressey, especially in the second half.
Outrebounded 37-28 ...
And outshot at the FT line 31-11. Read that stat again. At home.
I watched the game. It was a lazy performance. I give MU credit for taking full advantage, because even a lazy 2011-12 Baylor is a very good team.
We’ll agree to disagree.
by Itchy n Scratchy on Jan 23, 2012 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
I will add ...
MU now has 2 of the 3 most important wins of the Big12 season.
@Baylor and @ISU. That’s getting some serious work done.
The other one is Baylor winning @KSU.
In terms of the conference race, MU is a step and a half in front of ku, imo.
by Itchy n Scratchy on Jan 23, 2012 10:53 AM CST up reply actions
KU smoking Baylor at home was huge.
"If you don't want to work, become a reporter. That awful power, the public opinion of the nation, was created by a horde of self-complacent simpletons who failed at ditch digging and shoemaking and fetched up journalism on their way to the poorhouse." - Mark Twain
BOYCOTT ESPN!
To me, it was holding serve.
by Itchy n Scratchy on Jan 23, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
Winning on the road is how you win conference championships.
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
by mystman995 on Jan 23, 2012 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
did any of us really expect any team other than the beakers
to be at the top of the standings? I hate KU with every fiber in my body but Bill Self is amazing
At this point? No, because Barnes can't coach his way out of a wet paper sack, and KU hasn't been on the road at the toughest environments in the league.
No one is winning in Lawrence, we all know that, so the only chance is teams winning at home. But because KU’s getting better all the time, and they seem to be finding some depth, it looks like they’re going to win another league title going away, even if they lose two or even 3 road games. Missouri is going to lose at least 4 conference games, and Baylor probably 2 or 3 more, and the Cats are already out of it.
"If you don't want to work, become a reporter. That awful power, the public opinion of the nation, was created by a horde of self-complacent simpletons who failed at ditch digging and shoemaking and fetched up journalism on their way to the poorhouse." - Mark Twain
BOYCOTT ESPN!
Just curious...
Which games do you see Mizzou losing? @ku, @Texas, and ???? Missouri has been very good at home, and as of now should be favored to win all the other games on their schedule.
Don’t get me wrong, Missouri certainly could lose four more games in the conference. Conference play is like that. But since they have already played three of their five toughest road games (@KSU, @ISU, @ Baylor) I’m not sure how you can expect them to lose at least that many now — unless you think they are going to lose at home.
Also, do not forget the absurdly front-loaded beaker schedule. The second half of their league schedule is brutal.
Mizzou could derp the game at Stillwater in a heartbeat.
They have been fortunate on the road this year and have come close to getting beat by inferior teams. OSU has been known many times to pull something out of their collective rears at home when they’ve been on streaks like this. It wouldn’t surprise me a great deal although there is no way it should happen.
If I'd known I was going to live this long, I'd have taken better care of myself.
Home versus KU, and one of either KSU or Baylor
Plus, @KU, @UT, and maybe even @OSU.
by Collin's Bloody Elbow on Jan 23, 2012 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
I don't think ku is winning @MU ...
But once again, they are freaking nails at winning the “should win” games. Any other team in the league would have crumbled in Austin on Saturday after turning a 15-pt lead to a 4-pt deficit with under 3 minutes left.
The challenge for the other teams, as always, is keeping up with ku in winning the “should win” games.
This ku team is easily the worst since their 9-seed team (or was it an 8-seed?) back about a decade. But nobody yet has been successful at getting into their unbelievably bad bench and making them pay for the lack of depth. A lot of it is schedule driven, because ku still has @ISU, @KSU, @MU, and @Baylor left. But they’ve already side-stepped the two other most likely road losses … @OU and @Texas.
by Itchy n Scratchy on Jan 23, 2012 10:59 AM CST up reply actions
Yes, I agree with this
My only point is that ku’s body of work does not justify an assumption that it will be winning @MU, @ Baylor or @KSU. And they hardly looked solid against ISU in Allen….
Having watched what happened to Mizzou in Bramlage,
I think Robinson (with a side of Withey) will murder Mizzou inside in both the games.
by Collin's Bloody Elbow on Jan 23, 2012 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
Robinson is very good
But KU’s guard play is very spotty, and Missouri’s wins against Baylor and Illinois suggest that having talent down low is not an automatic ticket to victory against the Tigers (although Robinson is the best big in the country).
I give KSU a lot of credit for the way they jumped on Mizzou out of the gate. But I wouldn’t diminish that effort by assuming any team with a great center or power forward will beat Missouri.
I am curious, though, if you think ku will sweep Missouri, what you see as their final conference record? I don’t think any team makes it out of the conference with fewer than three losses.
I would be suprised if the Cats managed to win in Columbia, but it wouldn't be a total shock
They’re the only team this year to beat MU, and they won decisively. Yeah, I don’t like the team right now to repeat the performance in Columbia, but give them a month to get their heads on straight, and I think it will happen.
Mainly, I don’t trust Haith as a coach. I think the players, and MU has some of the best starters in the country, are carrying a mediocre coach. Self’s better than anyone in the league by miles, and if anyone can get a win in Columbia, it’s him and Robinson, with Taylor playing smart.
I somehow forgot MU vs Baylor was AT Baylor, I thought it was in Columbia, so make that possibly 3 losses in conference.
Everyone in league (except for @*#$* KU) derps their way into one no-way-that-should-have-happened loss, so that’s already in my totals above.
At this point, as much as it pains me to say it, I’ll take KU at 16-2, and MU at 15-3. Damned.
"If you don't want to work, become a reporter. That awful power, the public opinion of the nation, was created by a horde of self-complacent simpletons who failed at ditch digging and shoemaking and fetched up journalism on their way to the poorhouse." - Mark Twain
BOYCOTT ESPN!
To say that most Mizzou fans were skeptical of Haith as a coach
is an understatement.
But he is doing a lot more with the exact same players Mike Anderson had last year (minus Lawrence Bowers). He has won close games and blowouts while managing the thinnest bench in the Top 25. The team deploys very good set offensive looks, mixed defenses, and opportune timeouts. Ratliffe and English look like two entirely different players, and the impact of coaching on their improvement is obvious.
We have good talent, but I do not see any way Haith could have coached this team any better in his first 19 games. Set aside the first ten minutes in Manhattan, and the team has performed flawlessly. It is almost impossible to imagine it can be sustained at this high a level, but even Haith skeptics have conceded that this is the best coached team Missouri has had since Norm Stewart stalked the sidelines.
(As a side note, we heard (and I shared) these exact same concerns about Frank Martin when he was hired. He has worked out very well for KSU!)
Haith, as an in-season and in-game coach ...
has been (to me) one of the most surprising developments possible. He’s been A++. No reason to really think that’s ever going to change.
Only thing left to see is what kind of players he brings in for himself and how good he is at evaluating players for what he wants to do. This year is a freak team that nobody would actually attempt to put together, but he’s doing a masterful job. Will be interesting to see what kind of rosters he attempts to build in the future and how talented they will be. He didn’t exactly set the world on fire at Miami and he was coaching during a pretty darn good time to be in the ACC, so we’ll see.
by Itchy n Scratchy on Jan 23, 2012 11:33 AM CST up reply actions
Haith's assitants are all new
Did not bring anybody from Miami. He did add Isaac Chew and Tim Fuller (Pitino’s former top recruiter). So far, the recruiting has gone well, especially with the Yahoo investigation hanging out there,although it is heavily transfers.
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