BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.02.12

Only a couple of things I’ll definitely disagree on:

1) Don’t see Texas making it to 12-6
2) Definitely don’t see ku going 16-2. That’s a hilarious idea, actually.

I suppose I’m slightly more bullish on KSU, moderately more bearish on Texas, and I really don’t see ku as ahead of the pack in any way.

Nothing was expected from Kansas State this year. Jacob Pullen and his somewhat renowned beard are long gone, and in the preseason the Wildcats were picked to finish sixth in a new-look 10-team Big 12.

That prediction now needs revisiting. Frank Martin’s team is 11-1, and if not for an incredible performance by West Virginia’s Kevin Jones in the Mountaineers’ double-OT win in Wichita on Dec. 8, Kansas State would be 12-0 right now. So how did we not see the Wildcats in the preseason? And can Martin’s team continue its surprising run in a very strong Big 12? Let’s take a look at those questions ….

K-State’s better than expected because the defense is.
There’s been talk around Manhattan this season of better ball movement and of the Wildcats vexing opposing defenses with a new multi-pronged attack, but the truth is that this offense is no better or worse than it was last year. (Note, for example, that there’s no “true” point guard this season. The best candidate for that label, 5-foot-11 freshman Angel Rodriguez, comes off the bench and is still getting a handle on his turnovers.) Instead, if you’re looking for the source of Kansas State’s success this season, you should listen to Jamar Samuels.

Apparently Samuels has a future as an analyst if this whole playing thing doesn’t work out, because the 6-7 senior has been quoted as saying that the Wildcats’ defense is as good as it’s ever been. He’s right. K-State’s defense is much improved over last year. This season, quality opponents (those from the nation’s top 14 conferences), have made just 44 percent of their 2s and 24 percent of their 3s against this defense. What’s most impressive is how K-State has been able to pressure opposing perimeter players as if the Wildcats had an entire wall of shot-blockers lying in wait down in the paint. In truth, 7-foot junior Jordan Henriquez is indeed an outstanding shot-blocker, but he’s on the floor less than 20 minutes a game. Nevertheless, the Cats defend and harass on the perimeter as if Anthony Davis has their backs on every possession. If Martin’s players didn’t foul as often as they do, opponents might never score.

Thomas Gipson is Kansas State in a nutshell.
On paper Gipson is merely K-State’s No. 4 scorer, but in truth he’s as likely to shoot during a given possession as any other Wildcat. His points are limited only by his minutes (23 a game). Gipson’s an absolute monster on the offensive glass and he draws seven fouls for every 40 minutes he plays, but he shoots just 51 percent at the line. In all of the above — the offensive boards, the ability to draw fouls, and the shaky free throw shooting — Gipson is a useful one-player representation of Kansas State. And while it’d be easy to fault the strangely inaccurate 2-point shooting (47 percent) of a 6-7 player who virtually inhales offensive rebounds, we should probably see this glass as half-full. Gipson was an unheralded recruit coming out of high school, yet here he is more or less the focal point of a Top 25 team’s offense. If Martin keeps transforming unheralded recruits into key performers, he’ll attain Bo Ryan-level credibility in this department.

The Wildcats excel at drawing fouls.
In effect, Martin plays a rotation that goes eight deep, and no fewer than five of those players draw at least four fouls per 40 minutes. Samuels and Gipson each draw more than seven. Even an unprepossessing physical specimen like 6-2 sophomore Will Spradling, nominally the Wildcats’ 3-point specialist, draws four fouls per 40 minutes. (Note to Division I: The offensive impact of a good 3-point shooter who can also draw fouls is pretty scary. Encourage that “pure” shooter to hurl himself into the nearest defender on occasion.) Basically, if you can’t draw fouls, you don’t play in Manhattan. It’s true that the effectiveness of this approach has been limited by K-State shooting just 67 percent at the line as a team. Still, the Cats are commonly facing opposing defenses that are in some degree of foul trouble. As a result, those defenses often play cautiously and hesitantly — exactly what a blue-collar offense like Martin’s wants and needs.

Frank Martin: system coach.
Martin’s tenure at Kansas State has been undeniably successful, but I can’t help thinking that the factors behind that success have been somewhat misunderstood. For one thing, he started his head-coaching career as “Bob Huggins’ former assistant,” and he happened to have a certain player named Michael Beasley on his first roster. Then came Pullen and his beard, and it seemed like the do-it-all guard from Chicago was forever winning games in the most dramatic fashion imaginable. It was easy for observers to think that Martin was merely as good as his players. But I think Martin is actually what people admiringly term a “system coach.”

The Frank Martin system is one that makes perfect sense for any team that’s working at a talent deficit relative to its opponents (as the Wildcats will be this season when they play the top teams in the Big 12). K-State is hardly the last word in accuracy from the field, but the Wildcats make opponents shoot even worse and they get to the line even more often than the other team. Play defense, draw fouls, crash the offensive glass: That’s how the Wildcats win games.

Martin says the “challenge with this team has been immaturity” and that they’re “good against the good teams and not so good against the average teams.” So I suppose it’s a good thing in Martin’s eyes that K-State’s performance against “average” teams is now entirely irrelevant. The Wildcats’ next three games line up like this:

at Kansas
vs. Missouri
vs. Baylor

No worries about “immaturity” occurring as a result of that schedule.

When Martin said “The greatest empires of all time have always been defeated from within, not from the outside,” he was talking about his team and the importance of focusing on the task at hand. But he might as well have been talking about his team’s conference. At the time of the Big 12’s greatest apparent peril as a conference — already down to 10 teams; about to say goodbye to Texas A&M and Missouri, and hello to West Virginia and TCU — the league might just have its most exciting title chase in years.

The Jayhawks, Tigers, and Bears are all ranked in the top 20 nationally, and Texas is, as always, loaded with young talent. Meanwhile, Kansas State is turning heads in its own right. Keep an eye on the Big 12 and especially on Kansas State the rest of the season. Both the league and the team are exceeding expectations.

Big 12 play starts at 6 p.m. today on ESPNU with Texas A&M at No. 5 Baylor.

I expect the Aggies to be thrashed thoroughly. Should be enjoyable.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=ycn-10779807

What a silly comment regarding K-State non-conference schedule.

Still not sold.