BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.14.12


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.8.2012)


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I know it is galling to see the Cats slumming it at the bottom of the standings with the likes of Oklahoma and Texas Tech, but be patient and abide, fellow fans. Our time shall come.

And everyone else still has to play the top teams (Baylor, Kansas, Missouri) at least once, if not twice, while we fatten up on the weak and indigent for the next nine games.

Meanwhile, the Bears and Jayhawks will seek to avoid flat performances today in anticipation of their looming showdown Monday night in the Phog (which we all know KU is going to win, of course).

Texas at Missouri is a semi-intriguing game, but the intrigue probably will be stripped away quickly after the first TV timeout. And Aggies vs. Red Raiders will just be sad, almost like a cripple fight.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 17-1 NCAA 25 2 2 W-6 Ohio State Davidson Bill Self
Missouri 2 15-3 NCAA 19 8 8 W-1 Illinois Kansas State Frank Haith
Baylor 3 14-4 NCAA 4 11 12 W-16 West Virginia None Scott Drew
Kansas State 4 12-6 NCAA 27 15 19 L-1 Alabama Kansas Frank Martin
Texas 5 11-7 Bubble 63 25 24 W-2 Temple Oregon State Rick Barnes
Iowa State 6 7-11 Bubble 53 51 51 L-1 Texas Drake Fred Hoiberg
Oklahoma 7 6-12 NIT 79 80 72 L-3 Oral Roberts Cincinnati Lon Kruger
Oklahoma State 8 5-13 None 100 90 88 W-1 Missouri State Pittsburgh Travis Ford
Texas A&M 9 3-15 None 206 131 138 L-3 St. John's Rice Billy Kennedy
Texas Tech 10 0-18 None 178 221 217 L-3 Troy DePaul Billy Gillispie

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

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Discussion

Really not too much discuss here. There were exceedingly few changes to the overall prediction matrix.

Funny how that happens when you use the right numbers, huh?

GAMER: Now has Kansas State losing at Oklahoma State.

Pomeroy: No changes.

Sagarin: Now has Texas A&M winning at Texas Tech.

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Self-Evaluation

As usual, BIG 12 OUTLOOK has no idea what to do with the Cats early in the conference season.

Does it predict the Cats will lose at home to Missouri? Expect a win. Think that will translate into an upset of Baylor? Sorry, try again.

Luckily, the model has the Cats pegged for a pretty solid run during the next four weeks or so, with at least one system predicting an undefeated stretch.

Even if the Cats drop a game or two, that still would be a stretch to rival the end of last season.

Fun fact: The spreadsheet I use to calculate the Sagarin outcomes continues to recalculate games that already have been played, based on the most current information. 14 of those 15 predictions match the actual outcomes.

The one that doesn't? Baylor at K-State, of course, which Sagarin still has us winning by slightly more than two points, despite what actually happened Tuesday night. Dammit.

Cumulative pick record: 11-4 (.733)

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Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

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Predicted Outcomes

01.02-01.04
4-1 (.800)
52 A&M
61 Baylor
49 Oklahoma
87 Missouri
71 Texas
77 I-State
49 K-State
67 Kansas
59 Tech
67 O-State
01.07
3-2 (.600)
59 Missouri
75 K-State
72 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
74 I-State
50 A&M
73 Baylor
60 Tech
49 O-State
58 Texas
01.09-01.11
4-1 (.800)
65 Oklahoma
72 O-State
75 Baylor
73 K-State
76 Missouri
69 I-State
81 Kansas
46 Tech
51 A&M
61 Texas
01.14
O-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
01.16-01.18
Baylor
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
O-State
@ I-State (GPS)
Texas
@ K-State (GPS)
01.21
Missouri
@ Baylor (GPS)
K-State (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ A&M (G)
I-State (GPS)
@ Tech
Kansas (PS)
@ Texas (G)
01.23-01.25
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
01.28
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ I-State (G)
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State (S)
@ A&M (GP)
01.30-02.01
Missouri (GPS)
@ Texas
K-State (PS)
@ I-State (G)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech (G)
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ A&M
02.04
A&M
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ O-State
I-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.06-02.08
Missouri (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (PS)
@ A&M (G)
Tech
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State
@ O-State (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ Baylor (G)
02.11
A&M
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma (GP)
@ Tech (S)
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.13-02.15
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
Texas (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech (G)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.18
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Missouri (GPS)
@ A&M
02.20-02.22
Baylor (G)
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
02.25
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (G)
@ Kansas (PS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.27-02.29
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (PS)
@ A&M (G)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
03.03
Baylor (GPS)
@ I-State
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Tech
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