Kicking the Tires: Miami Hurricanes
by TB on Sep 23, 2011 10:05 AM CDT
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It's back! Up until a year ago, I was always usually good for a completely unscientific (hence, "kicking the tires") preview of each weekend's action. Presumably, most of you are here because you are interested in K-State sports, and thus are interested in game previews, although I wouldn't rule out the possibility that you may just be big fans of Pan's dick-and-fart jokes Adventures of the Big 12.
Anyway, K-State faces what was supposed to be its first big challenge of the season, but will actually be its second after the mighty Eastern Kentucky Colonels jumped up and nearly stole a win in Manhattan three weeks ago. Miami came into the season reeling from the most outstanding scandal we've ever seen alleged in college football. With eight players suspended, the Hurricanes took Maryland to the wire in College Park, losing 32-24 to the garishly clad Terrapins.
After a week to regroup and get some of its suspended players back, including starting quarterback Jacory Harris, Miami blitzed an Ohio State University at Sun Life Stadium for a 24-6 victory. The Hurricane defense was fierce in this one, limiting the Buckeyes to four completed passes for 35 yards on the game. With that kind of film available to Bill Snyder, Collin Klein may not attempt four passes on Saturday.
Hit the jump for a statistical look at both teams.
Players to Watch
K-State
Passing: (7) Collin Klein, 22-39, 202 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 101.0 yards/game
Rushing: (33) John Hubert, 26 carries, 120 yards, 0 TD, 60.0 yards/game
Receiving: (3) Chris Harper, 8 catches, 99 yards, 1 TD, 49.5 yards/game
Defense:
-- (4) Arthur Brown (LB): 19 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 0.5 sacks
-- (12) Ty Zimmerman (DB): 13 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 1 pass defended
-- (95) Ray Kibble (DL): 7 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1.0 sacks
Miami
Passing: (12) Jacory Harris, 16-23, 123 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 123.0 yards per game
Rushing: (6) Lamar Miller, 44 carries, 303 yards, 1 TD, 151.5 yards/game
Receiving: (1) Allen Hurns, 10 catches, 123 yards, 2 TDs, 61.5 yards/game
Defense:
-- (45) Ramon Buchanan (LB): 13 tackles, 2.0 TFL
-- (7) Vaughn Telemaque (DB): 11 tackles, 1 INT
-- (98) Darius Smith (DL): 5 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 1.0 sacks
As a note, I'm listing the top tackler at each level of both teams' defenses. Miami's top two tacklers are linebackers, which is a good sign for the Hurricanes. The bad sign? Their top tackler among defensive linemen ranks 13th on the team in tackles, and the Hurricanes only have two sacks on the (admittedly young) season. The Hurricanes don't seem to be getting much pressure on the quarterback and aren't throwing opponents for losses at a remarkable rate. Remember, though, Miami hasn't played EKU and Kent State. The Hurricanes have played an ACC road game against Maryland and been the host to Ohio State.
On offense, Jacory Harris is what he's always been, which is a potentially electrifying player who seems all too happy to give the ball to the other team once or twice (or more) per game. David Garrett, Tysyn Hartman and Ty Zimmerman need to be ready to make some players, because Harris will force throws.
Also, on the K-State stats, obviously Klein is, by far, our leading rusher, but I like to list the running backs in the rushing category.
Team Statistics (stats from NCAAFootball.com)
Rushing Offense
K-State: 35th, 197.0 yards/game
Miami: 34th, 206.0 yards/game
Passing Offense
K-State: 115th, 122.0 yards/game
Miami: 102nd, 159.0 yards/game
Total Offense
K-State:97th, 319.0 yards/game
Miami: 80th, 365.0 yards/game
Rushing Defense
K-State: 8th, 64.0 yards/game
Miami: 81st, 162.5 yards/game
Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State: 1st, 58.76 rating, 200 yards
Miami: 30th, 107.26 rating, 383 yards
Total Defense
K-State: 1st, 164.0 yards/game
Miami: 57th, 354.0 yards/game
Keep in mind when viewing these stats the disparity in schedule difficulty the teams have faced. K-State has seen an FCS team and a well-below-average Kent State team. Meanwhile, Miami has played a conference road game -- granted, it was against a Maryland squad chosen to finish last in the Atlantic Division of the ACC -- and newly minted enigma Ohio State. The Buckeyes shutout Akron, 42-0, in its opener before struggling against Toledo, narrowly pulling out a victory over the Mud Hens Rockets. For its part, Maryland is now 0-2 after a narrow loss to Big East favorite West Virginia.
In any event, K-State's offensive "strengths," to the extent it has any, match up nicely with Miami's strengths and weaknesses. As expected, Snyder and Dana Dimel have relied heavily on the running game, and even more heavily on Klein in that running game. Miami's defensive weakness is clearly stopping the run. If nothing else, you can bet on K-State keeping the ball on the ground at least 60 percent of the time on Saturday. I wouldn't be shocked to see one of the running backs take a few snaps in the Wildcat formation.
It is interesting to note that, despite the stellar pass-defense performance Miami displayed against Ohio State, the Hurricanes gave up more than 300 yards passing to Maryland. Keep in mind that Ohio State is as conservative as Rush Limbaugh offensively, and are breaking in a new quarterback, too. So while I'm not expecting a ton of tosses from Klein, and I'm even less confident in the chances of those passes connecting with regularity, it's still too early to anoint Miami as the greatest pass defense ever, gaudy numbers against Ohio State notwithstanding.
Prediction
Neither team has lit up the scoreboard this season, with K-State averaging only 23.5 points/game, while Miami has scored 24 in both contests thus far. My guess is that this will be a fairly low-scoring affair. As a result, we'll probably think K-State is closer to pulling off the victory than it actually is most of the game as the Cats trail by a field goal or touchdown most of the game before losing by nine, 30-21.
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Isn't that the guy who coached Temple?
I like coaches who go old school with the tie and etc. on the sideline. Need more of that.
Shit happens when you win championships
I dont know
HCBS is pretty old-school and I don’t think I’ve ever seen him in a tie on the sideline during an actual game. I think he likes to be comfy in his with his wind-jacket always tucked into his khakis…
It seems to me that when he first came to KSU, he was in a tie with a windbreaker or just a shirt and tie every game.
If I'd known I was going to live this long, I'd have taken better care of myself.
I miss the old Lombardi, Tom Landry, etc looks.
Guys rocking a suit, some type of hat with it, etc. Sharp look.
Belicheck is just embarrassing on the side line. Yes he is a great coach, but he dresses like my Dad does on Saturdays when it is time to do yardwork.
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Sep 23, 2011 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
he learned it from Paterno
when he coached there. I would prefer Snyder to go with a suit and tie. But i’m sure he’ll stick with the slacks and polo with his belted tucked under his nipples.
by WillieWannabe on Sep 23, 2011 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I swear with all the realignment talk etc. I totally forgot about the inevitable sanctions
that should be handed down to this team by the time we see them next fall.
So...
I guess we have to win this for rankings and bowls and such, but there’s like a 80% chance this season will be stricken from the record books for Miami, so in the long run we’ll win either way right?
/sarcasmbutton
When life hands you lemons, make grape juice. Let them wonder how the F*ck you did it.
I wish
Unless I am totally wrong on this, a vacated season only affects the team vacating the season, IE, if we lose to Miami and then they vacate the season after the fact, we still have a loss on the record books (they won the game played on the field, they just don’t get credit for it).
by Jeremy Sharp on Sep 23, 2011 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Damn it.
I pushed the sarcasm button!!
Yes you are right. Our record doesn’t change. I don’t think.
When life hands you lemons, make grape juice. Let them wonder how the F*ck you did it.
If we win,
and they vacate, it it sill a win. :-)
/hindsight is 20-20
'Fact. Bears eat beets. Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.' --Jim Halpert
If we're goin' old school...
lets put Klein under center, wilson and brown in the backfield, smith and harper wide, then throw the ‘bone at ’em. See how their “speedy” lb’s and db’s handle a half-ton of humanity for an afternoon.
by LC on Sep 23, 2011 11:16 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I've been thinking this ^^
for a long time. we have the big bodies, why not use them. I would even keep McDonald in as TE, and only run one wide-out, so there are more big guys on the field.
I think the Cats will lose 21-13.
I know they could win, but I just don’t think they will be able to move the ball and score without several gifts from Harris.
"If you don't want to work, become a reporter. That awful power, the public opinion of the nation, was created by a horde of self-complacent simpletons who failed at ditch digging and shoemaking and fetched up journalism on their way to the poorhouse." - Mark Twain
I'm in Vegas
And I’m taking KSU with the points. They are like 14 point underdogs and I don’t see it, not with Jacory Harris at QB. That guy alone is worth at least three turnovers, and one could go back for six.
Hoping you guys will make me a little skrilla at the sports book tomorrow.
Shit happens when you win championships
by Andrew Clark on Sep 23, 2011 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Shoulda gone money line
but you’re welcome. ;-)
'Fact. Bears eat beets. Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.' --Jim Halpert
I'm pissed at taking the points
and it was on a 4 game parlay. I hit all of them, btw. The money line would have been…well, money!
by Jeremy Sharp on Sep 24, 2011 11:19 PM CDT up reply actions
GAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!! :-o
You have some steely cajones, my friend. Am I reading you right – you bet on a Kansas State football game? Your Kansas State Wildcats? Whew, I did that once… and never again. But, for you, having the knowledge now that you were right (and we won even) is consoling. But, if you are at all interested in my opinion, I am strongly opposed to placing sportsbook bets on your own team(s). I’ll cut the mini-rant off there…
'Fact. Bears eat beets. Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.' --Jim Halpert
I know, I don't do it often.
The other time I did: 2003 @ Nebraska.
I just liked us +14.
Like I said, hindsight I should have taken the money line not points.
by Jeremy Sharp on Sep 25, 2011 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm going to put my foot down
KSU will get 17 points from the defense. In other words, 3 turnovers that either the D scores of puts us in position for an easy score (2TDs, 1FG). The Offense will score on their own twice…so we’re looking at anywhere from 23 to 31 points. I think we can hold them to 24 to 27 points.
Worst case TheU 27-23
Best case KSU 31-24
/noncommittalexpert
When life hands you lemons, make grape juice. Let them wonder how the F*ck you did it.
by BlackCats on Sep 23, 2011 12:10 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I have seen us winning this game for awhile now.
Just a hunch.
Bring on the Cats
Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect. -- Mark Twain
by Panjandrum on Sep 23, 2011 12:55 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Pan, I've read your stuff ever since you had that other blog
so I, too, am going to go with your hunch.
If ever there was a time for Bryce Brown to unleash the power we all know he has, Saturday is that time.
/senselesshomerism
Proud Kansas State 2009 Graduate, KMAN City Commission and County Commission Reporter.
EMAW 4 LIFE
Also I just came up with an idea
The slogan for faith in Bryce Brown.
“I BBelieve.”
Proud Kansas State 2009 Graduate, KMAN City Commission and County Commission Reporter.
EMAW 4 LIFE
by Joesus on Sep 23, 2011 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I've tapered off that feeling I had for a long time
Mostly predicated on the HCBS > most coaches in their first year of a coaching transition
I’m thinking the defense will have to hold them to 13-19 pts to have a chance of winning. Of course they can hold them to less too if they want.
Not sure either the d holding them to that point range or the offense scoring 1 more pt than that are within the realm of possibilities.
"Nor yet in Dell?"
I think after the Cats win, they deserve a Miami Special Hooker Yacht Cruise.
Winning has its privileges.
Transformers 2: Greatest movie or greatest movie ever? --Mizzou2396
tTSTC Don't Tread On Me. Roll Tire.
by Spider_Monkey on Sep 23, 2011 4:28 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Does the big pony show up on this hooker cruise?
I don’t want our Cats associating with someone with a background of bumping off hookers.
If I'd known I was going to live this long, I'd have taken better care of myself.
So I was totally gonna write a post just like this tonight.
Guess you snooze, you lose, huh?
My major thought is that both teams are frighteningly similar in almost every statistical category, but one should take that with a grain of salt due to the disparity of competition and the relatively small sample size, of course. Which TB already ably pointed out.
But the stat I’m proudest of is K-State’s No. 1 ranking in pass efficiency defense. I’m of the persuasion that PED is the single-most important defensive statistic in today’s day and age.
And unlike our dominance in rushing defense and several other stats, which can be attributed to our physical superiority to the teams we’ve played, PED don’t lie. Even horrendously overmatched teams can throw the ball all over you if you let them — the passing game is the great equalizer of football.
Witness the Missouri State game last year if you don’t believe me. That PED ranking + our ball-hawking DBs and much-improved pass rush = Jacory better not every throw the ball when under pressure.
regardless of who we played
I think you can actually see the improvement in this PED…even last game when passes were completed, our guys seemed in position to immediately make a tackle which was a good sign.
"Nor yet in Dell?"
Does anyone know if you can get the game online?
I don’t get ESPNU..thanks
Bitchslapping Texas since 1997
ESPN
recently re-worked the ESPN3 thing – now the mothership is watchESPN and ESPN3 is one of those channels – since that morph I have yet to see an ESPNU game live on ESPN3…
'Fact. Bears eat beets. Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.' --Jim Halpert
I wish I was more confident about this game
I do think our secondary will hold up well and make some good plays. But I’m not sold on our rush defense. They’re clearly improved over last year, but I could see us giving up a lot of yards on the ground this year against teams that like to just pound it between the tackles.
And I have grave doubts about our offense. Several of the good running plays Klein had against Kent St. were just him outrunning a DE that had decent contain on him. That’s something he might be able to continue getting away with in the B12, but no way it happens against a team as fast as Miami. And while I think Klein has the arm to be a good passer, he hasn’t shown much of that in the first two games. He seems to get locked in on 1 receiver, underthrows easy passes, and has overthrown several long passes downfield. I won’t even bother talking about our OL or RBs, because i think everyone is aware of that.
Klein could step up and have a good passing game, and that’s what it’s going to take to stay in this one. Otherwise, I don’t see us staying within 14.
Totally understandable.
But I’m not sold on our rush defense.
Lamar Miller is a killer. Cold-blooded.
IT'S GAME DAY, B!)#*!!!!!
I have an unreasonable optimistic feeling going right now.
Yesterday, when I was more realistic, I demanded 14 points (not 13) for KSU.
screw this, I should be sleeping anyway.
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