BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.05.11


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 3.4.2011)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#2 Kansas Jayhawks 13 2 28 2
#7 Texas Longhorns 12 3 24 6
#24 Texas A&M Aggies 9 6 22 7
Kansas State Wildcats 9 6 21 9
#22 Missouri Tigers 8 7 22 8
Nebraska Cornhuskers 7 8 19 10
Baylor Bears 7 8 18 11
Colorado Buffaloes 7 8 18 12
Oklahoma State Cowboys 6 9 18 11
Texas Tech Red Raiders 5 10 13 17
Oklahoma Sooners 4 11 12 17
Iowa State Cyclones 3 12 16 14

 

Entering the final weekend of play in the Big 12 as we know it, many things still are up for grabs.

The most obvious is whether Kansas while have to share its seventh consecutive conference championship with Texas, the team that beat the Jayhawks on the own floor. Stay tuned to what happens today in Columbia and Waco.

Also crucial are home games for Kansas State and Texas A&M, which each face cellar-dwellers at home in possible trap games on Senior Day. Whichever team can avoid blinking first will be the No. 3 seed in Kansas City.

Then there's a jumble to sort out in the middle. Missouri will seek to stay above .500, although it will be a tough task.

And Baylor, Colorado and Nebraska all are fighting just to stay on the bubble.

For each team, winning today and getting to 8-8 is crucial if it is to have any chance of hearing its name called next week. Of course, for the departing Buffs and Huskers, such a result is mutually exclusive.

One-game striation has taken place among the bottom four teams in the conference, but don't be fooled by the three-game difference between ninth place and 12th.

On a neutral court, I think Iowa State absolutely is capable of beating Oklahoma State — or, for that matter, whoever ends up as the fifth seed.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 14-2 NCAA 1 3 2 W-4 Arizona Kansas State Bill Self
Texas 2 13-3 NCAA 14 5 5 L-2 Kansas USC Rick Barnes
Texas A&M 3 10-6 NCAA 30 46 42 L-2 Kansas State Baylor (2) Mark Turgeon
Kansas State 4 10-6 NCAA 19 29 30 W-5 Kansas Colorado (2) Frank Martin
Colorado 5 8-8 Bubble 80 63 57 L-1 Texas Oklahoma Tad Boyle
Missouri 6 8-8 NCAA 31 28 24 L-2 Kansas State Colorado Mike Anderson
Baylor 7 7-9 NIT 77 65 58 L-1 Texas A&M (2) Texas Tech Scott Drew
Nebraska 8 7-9 NIT 73 40 46 W-1 Texas Texas Tech Doc Sadler
Oklahoma State 9 7-9 NIT 54 80 78 W-2 Kansas State Texas Tech Travis Ford
Texas Tech 10 5-11 None 159 112 125 W-1 Oklahoma State TCU Pat Knight
Oklahoma 11 4-12 None 139 147 142 L-8 Baylor Chaminade Jeff Capel
Iowa State 12 3-13 None 129 75 72 W-2 Nebraska Texas Tech Fred Hoiberg

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Everything's green these days for the Wildcats, who continue to be the hottest team in the league. With a win today, they would be one waved-off Rodney McGruder 3-pointer away from tying last season's Big 12 record.

But close on their heels are the Kansas Jayhawks, who seek an undisputed and unshared championship this morning at Missouri.

Meanwhile, Texas and Texas A&M saw their profiles slip a bit with respective two-game losing streaks. Both need to win against in-state rivals today to avoid losing seed power in the NCAA Tournament.

Missouri still looks OK for a Big Dance bid, thanks to its non-conference performance, but it would behoove the Tigers not to lose to the No. 11  or No. 12 seed next Wednesday.

Of all the other teams, Colorado appears to be in the best shape for an at-large bid. Yes, the Iowa State loss was an ugly blemish to add to a pre-existing defeat at Oklahoma, but few bubble teams command the kind of signature wins the Buffaloes can boast. But it remains to be seen whether that can overcome a weak non-conference slate.

Baylor, even with a win over Texas, continues to be dragged down by the Iowa State-Oklahoma-Texas Tech trifecta of losses on its resume, and the only signature wins are over a flagging and not-so-impressive Texas A&M team.

The Bears, along with Nebraska and Oklahoma State, look solid for an NIT bid, however, as does Colorado if its bubble bursts. That would give the conference a whopping nine teams in the two significant postseason tourneys.

Iowa State still is a long shot for a bid in either the CBI or the CIT, but I wouldn't bet any money on it. Texas Tech could have been in the same position if it just had won some non-conference games against crap teams.

Oklahoma continues to be an out-of-control, five-alarm dumpster fire. It would not surprise me at all to see Joe Castiglione chase Jeff Capel up the tunnel and fire him Tim Weiser-style after a loss next week to either Colorado or Missouri. A man only can take so many shots of Billy Gillispie grinning on ESPN before he snaps.

GAMER: Now has Kansas winning at Missouri.

Pomeroy: Now has Oklahoma State winning at Oklahoma.

Sagarin: No changes.

 

Self-Evaluation

As I predicted Monday, OUTLOOK landed another 5-1 week, with the "1" once again being a perfect-storm upset for the Cats. I can do this all year, baby.

That leaves the model having picked 70 of 90 games correctly thus far, which lags behind last year's performance a bit. But it's been a crazier year, so I'm not too worked up about it.

OULOOK's been consistent in picking Kansas and Texas as road winners today, while vacillating back and forth between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in Bedlam. Currently, we're in OSU mode. Otherwise, bet home teams.

If all this holds true, here's what we're looking at next week. It's a bit of a catch-22, really. If Missouri beats Kansas, KU would have to share the title with Texas and K-State wouldn't have to play the Jayhawks until the championship.

But I'd rather play Colorado a third time and get some much-needed revenge than play Mizzou a third time on, at best, a 50-50 court. And we're going to have to face either KU or Texas again in the semis, barring an upset, so we might as well grit our teeth and deal with it.

I suppose if we do end up with the projected bracket, we could root for Colorado over Iowa State, Oklahoma State over Nebraska and Kansas, and Texas A&M over all challengers on the south side of the bracket. That would give K-State a chance to avenge four unchallenged losses en route to a championship for Pullen and Co. Dream on...

Cumulative pick record: 70-20 (.778)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
01.15
6-0 (1.000)
71 O-State
75 Colorado
57 Baylor
72 I-State
60 Tech
94 K-State
60 Nebraska
63 Kansas
89 Missouri
91 A&M (OT)
46 Oklahoma
66 Texas
01.17-01.19
5-1 (.833)
85 Kansas
65 Baylor
59 K-State
75 Missouri
67 Colorado
79 Nebraska
74 Tech
83 Oklahoma
87 I-State
96 O-State (OT)
60 A&M
81 Texas
01.22
3-3 (.500)
57 O-State
76 Baylor
60 Colorado
67 Oklahoma
56 K-State
64 A&M
74 Texas
63 Kansas
54 I-State
87 Missouri
71 Nebraska
72 Tech
01.24-01.26
3-1 (.750)
61 Baylor
69 K-State
82 Kansas
78 Colorado
92 Tech
83 I-State
61 Texas
46 O-State
01.29
4-2 (.667)
66 Colorado
70 Baylor
82 Oklahoma
76 I-State (OT)
66 K-State
90 Kansas
58 Missouri
71 Texas
48 A&M
57 Nebraska
74 O-State
75 Tech (OT)
01.31-02.02
4-2 (.667)
69 Texas
49 A&M
88 Kansas
66 Tech
66 Baylor
73 Oklahoma
69 I-State
95 Colorado
53 Nebraska
69 K-State
70 Missouri
76 O-State
02.05
4-2 (.667)
86 K-State
85 I-State
73 Colorado
89 Missouri
86 Kansas
66 Nebraska
75 Oklahoma
81 O-State
76 Baylor
74 A&M (OT)
60 Tech
76 Texas
02.07-02.09
3-1 (.750)
86 Missouri
103 Kansas
73 A&M
70 Colorado (OT)
70 Nebraska
74 Baylor
68 Texas
52 Oklahoma
02.12
6-0 (1.000)
56 K-State
58 Colorado
66 I-State
89 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
84 Missouri
54 O-State
65 Nebraska
70 A&M
67 Tech
60 Baylor
69 Texas
02.14-02.16
4-1 (0.800)
68 Kansas
84 K-State
84 Tech
92 Missouri
66 I-State
71 A&M
59 Nebraska
58 Oklahoma
55 O-State
73 Texas
02.19
4-2 (0.667)
78 Tech
69 Baylor
76 Missouri
70 I-State
62 Oklahoma
77 K-State
63 Colorado
89 Kansas
67 Texas
70 Nebraska
67 A&M
66 O-State
02.21-02.23
5-1 (0.833)
65 O-State
92 Kansas
53 I-State
76 Texas
71 Colorado
68 Tech
59 Baylor
77 Missouri
61 K-State
57 Nebraska
47 Oklahoma
61 A&M
02.26
5-1 (0.833)
51 A&M
58 Baylor
89 Texas
91 Colorado
82 Nebraska
83 I-State (OT)
70 Missouri
80 K-State
82 Kansas
70 Oklahoma
68 Tech
70 O-State
02.28-03.02
5-1 (0.833)
75 K-State
70 Texas
58 Missouri
69 Nebraska
60 Baylor
71 O-State
90 Colorado
95 I-State
51 A&M
64 Kansas
58 Oklahoma
84 Tech
03.05
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
X
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