BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.28.11


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.27.2011)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#3 Kansas Jayhawks 12 2 27 2
#5 Texas Longhorns 12 2 24 5
#21 Texas A&M Aggies 9 5 22 6
#20 Missouri Tigers 8 6 22 7
Kansas State Wildcats 8 6 20 9
Baylor Bears 7 7 18 10
Colorado Buffaloes 7 7 18 11
Nebraska Cornhuskers 6 8 18 10
Oklahoma State Cowboys 5 9 17 11
Oklahoma Sooners 4 10 12 16
Texas Tech Red Raiders 4 10 12 17
Iowa State Cyclones 2 12 15 14

 

Well, that made things interesting.

Colorado's upset win over Texas threw all kinds of monkey wrenches into BIG 12 OUTLOOK heading into the final week of conference play.

With the win, the Buffaloes gave hope to the Jayhawks, muddied up the race for the final bye, reignited their bubble hopes and probably raised the inhalation ratio per capita in Boulder to a five-year high. (Yes, pun intended.)

Meanwhile, Baylor's sweep of Texas A&M portends possible trouble ahead for the offensively challenged Aggies and Nebraska's fading NCAA hopes appear to have died on the vine cornstalk.

Follow the jump for the latest aftershocks from Saturday's action.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 14-2 NCAA 9 4 4 L-1 Kansas Nebraska Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 14-2 NCAA 2 3 2 W-3 Arizona Kansas State Bill Self
Texas A&M 3 10-6 NCAA 29 43 39 L-1 Kansas State Baylor (2) Mark Turgeon
Kansas State 4 9-7 NCAA 25 35 34 W-4 Kansas Colorado (2) Frank Martin
Colorado 5 8-8 Bubble 77 59 58 W-2 Texas Oklahoma Tad Boyle
Missouri 6 8-8 NCAA 28 24 24 L-1 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Baylor 7 7-9 NIT 74 61 56 W-1 Texas A&M (2) Texas Tech Scott Drew
Nebraska 8 7-9 NIT 80 45 52 L-2 Texas Texas Tech Doc Sadler
Oklahoma State 9 6-10 NIT 60 86 84 W-1 Kansas State Texas Tech Travis Ford
Oklahoma 10 5-11 None 132 134 129 L-7 Baylor Chaminade Jeff Capel
Texas Tech 11 5-11 None 158 123 135 L-2 Oklahoma State TCU Pat Knight
Iowa State 12 3-13 None 136 76 72 W-1 Baylor Texas Tech Fred Hoiberg

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Yahoo!

 

Discussion

This might be the perfect scenario.

The projections above are attractive to me for a multitude of reasons. K-State would be opposite of Kansas in the bracket, setting up a possible rematch of last year's exciting championship game. We also would avoid a third game against Missouri (or even worse, a second consecutive game against Iowa State), which is no fun.

Instead, we would get one more shot at the Buffaloes, a chance to avenge that blasted sweep. With a win there, we could advance to avenge a projected loss to Texas (or perhaps administer a sweep of our own — who's to say?)

And perhaps the best part of this outcome, other than Kansas still having to claim just a share of the championship, would be Missouri plummeting all the way to sixth. For a team of over-the-back artists that can't win a road game against a team with a winning record, that would be all too fitting.

Also worth noting: The falling numbers and multiple losses to an underachieving Baylor team hint that Texas A&M is an overrated, vulnerable squad — stay tuned. And Colorado's win was enough for me to elevate them back to bubble status, but now they have to back it up by winning in Ames, something Nebraska couldn't do.

GAMER: No changes.

Pomeroy: Now has Missouri losing at Nebraska and Oklahoma State losing at Oklahoma.

Sagarin: No changes.

 

Self-Evaluation

5-1 is becoming a stellar mark of success lately in this upset-prone league. By picking all home teams this week, OUTLOOK is almost certain to continue that 16.7-percent failure rate. My money's on either Colorado or K-State or to screw things up this week, but Baylor and Missouri certainly are possibilities, as well.

Cumulative pick record: 65-19 (.774)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
01.15
6-0 (1.000)
71 O-State
75 Colorado
57 Baylor
72 I-State
60 Tech
94 K-State
60 Nebraska
63 Kansas
89 Missouri
91 A&M (OT)
46 Oklahoma
66 Texas
01.17-01.19
5-1 (.833)
85 Kansas
65 Baylor
59 K-State
75 Missouri
67 Colorado
79 Nebraska
74 Tech
83 Oklahoma
87 I-State
96 O-State (OT)
60 A&M
81 Texas
01.22
3-3 (.500)
57 O-State
76 Baylor
60 Colorado
67 Oklahoma
56 K-State
64 A&M
74 Texas
63 Kansas
54 I-State
87 Missouri
71 Nebraska
72 Tech
01.24-01.26
3-1 (.750)
61 Baylor
69 K-State
82 Kansas
78 Colorado
92 Tech
83 I-State
61 Texas
46 O-State
01.29
4-2 (.667)
66 Colorado
70 Baylor
82 Oklahoma
76 I-State (OT)
66 K-State
90 Kansas
58 Missouri
71 Texas
48 A&M
57 Nebraska
74 O-State
75 Tech (OT)
01.31-02.02
4-2 (.667)
69 Texas
49 A&M
88 Kansas
66 Tech
66 Baylor
73 Oklahoma
69 I-State
95 Colorado
53 Nebraska
69 K-State
70 Missouri
76 O-State
02.05
4-2 (.667)
86 K-State
85 I-State
73 Colorado
89 Missouri
86 Kansas
66 Nebraska
75 Oklahoma
81 O-State
76 Baylor
74 A&M (OT)
60 Tech
76 Texas
02.07-02.09
3-1 (.750)
86 Missouri
103 Kansas
73 A&M
70 Colorado (OT)
70 Nebraska
74 Baylor
68 Texas
52 Oklahoma
02.12
6-0 (1.000)
56 K-State
58 Colorado
66 I-State
89 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
84 Missouri
54 O-State
65 Nebraska
70 A&M
67 Tech
60 Baylor
69 Texas
02.14-02.16
4-1 (0.800)
68 Kansas
84 K-State
84 Tech
92 Missouri
66 I-State
71 A&M
59 Nebraska
58 Oklahoma
55 O-State
73 Texas
02.19
4-2 (0.667)
78 Tech
69 Baylor
76 Missouri
70 I-State
62 Oklahoma
77 K-State
63 Colorado
89 Kansas
67 Texas
70 Nebraska
67 A&M
66 O-State
02.21-02.23
5-1 (0.833)
65 O-State
92 Kansas
53 I-State
76 Texas
71 Colorado
68 Tech
59 Baylor
77 Missouri
61 K-State
57 Nebraska
47 Oklahoma
61 A&M
02.26
5-1 (0.833)
51 A&M
58 Baylor
89 Texas
91 Colorado
82 Nebraska
83 I-State (OT)
70 Missouri
80 K-State
82 Kansas
70 Oklahoma
68 Tech
70 O-State
02.28-03.02
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (S)
@ Nebraska (GP)
Baylor
@ O-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
03.05
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ Missouri (G)
O-State (S)
@ Oklahoma (GP)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)

 

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