BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.26.11


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.25.2011)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#5 Texas Longhorns 12 1 24 4
#3 Kansas Jayhawks 11 2 26 2
#21 Texas A&M Aggies 9 4 22 5
#20 Missouri Tigers 8 5 22 6
Kansas State Wildcats 7 6 19 9
Nebraska Cornhuskers 6 7 18 9
Baylor Bears 6 7 17 10
Colorado Buffaloes 6 7 17 11
Oklahoma State Cowboys 4 9 16 11
Oklahoma Sooners 4 9 12 15
Texas Tech Red Raiders 4 9 12 16
Iowa State Cyclones 1 12 14 14

 

With three games to go, there's precious little time for teams to move up or down the standings significantly.

Kansas and Texas clearly have separated from the pack, with KU still hopeful of another UT stumble and another shared trophy, while Missouri and Texas A&M are closer to teams behind them than national pundits seem to realize.

K-State lies just barely ahead of the Baylor-Colorado-Nebraska pack, and it remains to be seen if one of those three teams still can separate and make any kind of a serious bubble case. I'm doubting it.

And any team that is 4-9 or worse just isn't worth mentioning at this point. Most of 'em are ready for the season to end.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 15-1 NCAA 9 4 4 W-1 Kansas Nebraska Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 14-2 NCAA 1 3 1 W-2 Arizona Kansas State Bill Self
Texas A&M 3 10-6 NCAA 26 41 38 W-5 Kansas State Baylor Mark Turgeon
Kansas State 4 9-7 NCAA 27 35 33 W-3 Kansas Colorado (2) Frank Martin
Missouri 5 9-7 NCAA 31 22 22 W-4 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Baylor 6 7-9 NIT 84 63 57 L-2 Texas A&M Texas Tech Scott Drew
Colorado 7 7-9 NIT 85 61 58 W-1 Kansas State (x2) Oklahoma Tad Boyle
Oklahoma State 8 7-9 NIT 59 85 83 L-4 Kansas State Texas Tech Travis Ford
Nebraska 9 6-10 NIT 77 44 50 L-1 Texas Texas Tech Doc Sadler
Texas Tech 10 5-11 None 151 127 139 L-1 Oklahoma State TCU Pat Knight
Oklahoma 11 4-12 None 130 137 132 L-6 Baylor Chaminade Jeff Capel
Iowa State 12 3-13 None 140 77 72 L-10 Baylor Texas Tech Fred Hoiberg

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Wow, what a difference a week makes.

This time last Saturday, Nebraska was celebrating a huge upset win and dreaming of dancing. But after a home loss to K-State (and a resultant computer drop that also added a projected loss to at home to Missouri), last week's darlings are this week's meteor, falling back to earth ... and down three seeds.

That's enough for me to bump them back to NIT status for now. So, too, is the projected fate of topsy-turvy Baylor.

Oklahoma State picked a win back up against those Bears, good enough to vault them to 7-9 like seemingly every other mediocre team in the league. For what it's worth, KenPom has been pretty consistent in predicting a 3-0 finish for the Cowboys, proving once again how much scheduling can make you look worse than you actually might be.

K-State and Missouri both picked up wins over Nebraska — real and projected, respectively — but the remaining tiebreakers remained unaltered, meaning K-State still holds the projected No. 4 seed. That would be huge, because who wants to play Iowa State twice in a row? There's nothing to gain from that. Plus, the day off and all that jazz.

The change in fortunes between the Wildcats and Tigers, which could be enshrined with a head-to-victory today, is expressed in the RPI flip-flop the two experienced this week. Note how K-State suddenly replaced Mizzou as everyone's signature win. Take that, ESPN Bubble Watch.

That's about it. The 4-9 seeds are still in play, but the three at the top and the three at the bottom are all but locked up.

GAMER: Now has Kansas losing at Missouri.

Pomeroy: Now has Missouri winning at Nebraska.

Sagarin: No changes.

 

Self-Evaluation

Like I said right after beating KU, the best kind of 5-1 week is one in which the "1" ends up being yet another huge Wildcat victory. Let's hope the same holds true for Monday, eh?

Today, OUTLOOK likes all the home teams, except for those having to face Kansas and Texas. Clever strategy, that.

Texas at Colorado is the obvious upset pick, but I think the Buffaloes are about done for, and the Longhorns, who rediscovered their mojo in the second half of Tuesday's game, should be all too happy to oblige them.

I think the likelier "upset" is Texas A&M over Baylor, and I'm somewhat worried about the Missouri game, as well.

And you can't rule out a Nebraska team that's fighting for its postseason life, although I tend to side with OUTLOOK on this one — the Cyclones are due to pop somebody any day now. Might as well be the Huskers.

OU might as well forfeit. Nobody cares about OSU or Tech.

Cumulative pick record: 60-18 (.769)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
01.15
6-0 (1.000)
71 O-State
75 Colorado
57 Baylor
72 I-State
60 Tech
94 K-State
60 Nebraska
63 Kansas
89 Missouri
91 A&M (OT)
46 Oklahoma
66 Texas
01.17-01.19
5-1 (.833)
85 Kansas
65 Baylor
59 K-State
75 Missouri
67 Colorado
79 Nebraska
74 Tech
83 Oklahoma
87 I-State
96 O-State (OT)
60 A&M
81 Texas
01.22
3-3 (.500)
57 O-State
76 Baylor
60 Colorado
67 Oklahoma
56 K-State
64 A&M
74 Texas
63 Kansas
54 I-State
87 Missouri
71 Nebraska
72 Tech
01.24-01.26
3-1 (.750)
61 Baylor
69 K-State
82 Kansas
78 Colorado
92 Tech
83 I-State
61 Texas
46 O-State
01.29
4-2 (.667)
66 Colorado
70 Baylor
82 Oklahoma
76 I-State (OT)
66 K-State
90 Kansas
58 Missouri
71 Texas
48 A&M
57 Nebraska
74 O-State
75 Tech (OT)
01.31-02.02
4-2 (.667)
69 Texas
49 A&M
88 Kansas
66 Tech
66 Baylor
73 Oklahoma
69 I-State
95 Colorado
53 Nebraska
69 K-State
70 Missouri
76 O-State
02.05
4-2 (.667)
86 K-State
85 I-State
73 Colorado
89 Missouri
86 Kansas
66 Nebraska
75 Oklahoma
81 O-State
76 Baylor
74 A&M (OT)
60 Tech
76 Texas
02.07-02.09
3-1 (.750)
86 Missouri
103 Kansas
73 A&M
70 Colorado (OT)
70 Nebraska
74 Baylor
68 Texas
52 Oklahoma
02.12
6-0 (1.000)
56 K-State
58 Colorado
66 I-State
89 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
84 Missouri
54 O-State
65 Nebraska
70 A&M
67 Tech
60 Baylor
69 Texas
02.14-02.16
4-1 (0.800)
68 Kansas
84 K-State
84 Tech
92 Missouri
66 I-State
71 A&M
59 Nebraska
58 Oklahoma
55 O-State
73 Texas
02.19
4-2 (0.667)
78 Tech
69 Baylor
76 Missouri
70 I-State
62 Oklahoma
77 K-State
63 Colorado
89 Kansas
67 Texas
70 Nebraska
67 A&M
66 O-State
02.21-02.23
5-1 (0.833)
65 O-State
92 Kansas
53 I-State
76 Texas
71 Colorado
68 Tech
59 Baylor
77 Missouri
61 K-State
57 Nebraska
47 Oklahoma
61 A&M
02.26
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Nebraska (P)
@ I-State (GS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
02.28-03.02
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (PS)
@ Nebraska (G)
Baylor
@ O-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
03.05
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ Missouri (G)
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)

 

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