BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.21.11


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.20.2011)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#3 Texas Longhorns 11 1 23 4
#1 Kansas Jayhawks 10 2 25 2
#21 Texas A&M Aggies 8 4 21 5
#20 Missouri Tigers 7 5 21 6
Nebraska Cornhuskers 6 6 18 8
Kansas State Wildcats 6 6 18 9
Baylor Bears 6 6 17 9
Colorado Buffaloes 5 7 16 11
Oklahoma State Cowboys 4 8 16 10
Oklahoma Sooners 4 8 12 14
Texas Tech Red Raiders 4 8 12 15
Iowa State Cyclones 1 11 14 13

 

Who will be the fifth team from the Big 12 to achieve "lock" status for the NCAA Tournament?

The smart money is on the Cats, but someone's going to have to rise out of that 6-6 deadlock before anyone can say definitively.

The five teams below that are done, though, having each attained double-digit losses before March. But Colorado and Oklahoma State still have a decent shot at the NIT if they can snag a few more wins.

The top four seeds in the Big 12 Tournament appear to be set, if you only look at the standings. But the battle for No. 4 might not be as settled as you think, as you will see after the jump.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 15-1 NCAA 7 4 4 L-1 Kansas USC Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 14-2 NCAA 1 3 2 W-1 Arizona Kansas State Bill Self
Texas A&M 3 10-6 NCAA 27 44 38 W-4 Missouri Baylor Mark Turgeon
Kansas State 4 8-8 NCAA 31 37 34 W-2 Kansas Colorado (2) Frank Martin
Missouri 5 8-8 NCAA 28 24 23 W-3 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Nebraska 6 8-8 Bubble 63 43 47 W-3 Texas Davidson Doc Sadler
Baylor 7 7-9 Bubble 78 58 54 L-1 Texas A&M Iowa State Scott Drew
Colorado 8 7-9 NIT 93 62 58 L-1 Missouri Oklahoma Tad Boyle
Oklahoma State 9 7-9 NIT 59 81 80 L-3 Missouri Texas Tech Travis Ford
Texas Tech 10 5-11 None 139 123 137 W-1 Oklahoma State TCU Pat Knight
Oklahoma 11 4-12 None 132 135 129 L-5 Baylor Chaminade Jeff Capel
Iowa State 12 3-13 None 147 78 70 L-9 Baylor Texas Tech Fred Hoiberg

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Baylor's loss was the projected gain of three North teams angling for 8-8 records, barring any surprises. It also let Texas Tech leapfrog Oklahoma for the first time in weeks and gave Oklahoma State another projected win.

Clearly, Nebraska was the big mover of the week, for obvious reasons. The Huskers won their third straight, moved up two spots in the seed order, saw an across-the-board boost to their computer numbers, interjected themselves into the Big 12 bubble discussion and set up an absolutely huge showdown Wednesday in Lincoln.

Meanwhile, Baylor fell right back onto the bubble not one day after I elevated it to NCAA status, and frankly, it's the wrong side of the bubble. The loss to Texas Tech completed a rare trifecta, along with losses at Iowa State and Oklahoma, and given that it came at home, it has to be considered the worst of the bunch. Baylor looks NIT-bound.

GAMER: No changes.

Pomeroy: Now has Baylor losing at Oklahoma State and Nebraska winning at Iowa State.

Sagarin: Now has Baylor losing at Oklahoma State.

 

Self-Evaluation

I did warn of the upset potential Saturday in Lincoln, but nobody saw Texas Tech's win at Baylor coming.

Considering all that, 4-2 is a pretty good performance. And I'd be pretty happy with that outcome again this week.

Despite all three predictive systems' confidence in Colorado, my eyes tell me Texas Tech is a hot team (even though the Red Raiders lost to Texas and Missouri, they played markedly better in the second halves of those games) and Colorado is a sliding team. I easily can see Tech winning that one.

And as far as I am concerned, the K-State/Nebraska game is a total toss-up. It will be a difficult game for the Cats to win, to be sure, but not an impossible one now that they are playing their best ball of the season.

KU, Missouri and the two Texas schools should roll at home.

Cumulative pick record: 55-17 (.764)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
01.15
6-0 (1.000)
71 O-State
75 Colorado
57 Baylor
72 I-State
60 Tech
94 K-State
60 Nebraska
63 Kansas
89 Missouri
91 A&M (OT)
46 Oklahoma
66 Texas
01.17-01.19
5-1 (.833)
85 Kansas
65 Baylor
59 K-State
75 Missouri
67 Colorado
79 Nebraska
74 Tech
83 Oklahoma
87 I-State
96 O-State (OT)
60 A&M
81 Texas
01.22
3-3 (.500)
57 O-State
76 Baylor
60 Colorado
67 Oklahoma
56 K-State
64 A&M
74 Texas
63 Kansas
54 I-State
87 Missouri
71 Nebraska
72 Tech
01.24-01.26
3-1 (.750)
61 Baylor
69 K-State
82 Kansas
78 Colorado
92 Tech
83 I-State
61 Texas
46 O-State
01.29
4-2 (.667)
66 Colorado
70 Baylor
82 Oklahoma
76 I-State (OT)
66 K-State
90 Kansas
58 Missouri
71 Texas
48 A&M
57 Nebraska
74 O-State
75 Tech (OT)
01.31-02.02
4-2 (.667)
69 Texas
49 A&M
88 Kansas
66 Tech
66 Baylor
73 Oklahoma
69 I-State
95 Colorado
53 Nebraska
69 K-State
70 Missouri
76 O-State
02.05
4-2 (.667)
86 K-State
85 I-State
73 Colorado
89 Missouri
86 Kansas
66 Nebraska
75 Oklahoma
81 O-State
76 Baylor
74 A&M (OT)
60 Tech
76 Texas
02.07-02.09
3-1 (.750)
86 Missouri
103 Kansas
73 A&M
70 Colorado (OT)
70 Nebraska
74 Baylor
68 Texas
52 Oklahoma
02.12
6-0 (1.000)
56 K-State
58 Colorado
66 I-State
89 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
84 Missouri
54 O-State
65 Nebraska
70 A&M
67 Tech
60 Baylor
69 Texas
02.14-02.16
4-1 (0.800)
68 Kansas
84 K-State
84 Tech
92 Missouri
66 I-State
71 A&M
59 Nebraska
58 Oklahoma
55 O-State
73 Texas
02.19
4-2 (0.667)
78 Tech
69 Baylor
76 Missouri
70 I-State
62 Oklahoma
77 K-State
63 Colorado
89 Kansas
67 Texas
70 Nebraska
67 A&M
66 O-State
02.21-02.23
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
02.26
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Nebraska (P)
@ I-State (GS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
02.28-03.02
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (S)
@ Nebraska (GP)
Baylor
@ O-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
03.05
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
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