BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.19.11

Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.18.2011)


Texas now holds a commanding lead over the rest of the conference, while the two Oklahoma schools appear to be settling toward the bottom of the barrel.

The new Fab Five consist of 6-5 and 5-6 teams Baylor, Colorado, Kansas State, Missouri and Nebraska. But only one of those has beat Kansas or Texas. Expect a little more separation after today's games.

And Iowa State and Texas Tech have to be the most deceptive 1-10 and 3-8 teams in the country.

The Cyclones now have lost seven conference games in the final minute, while the Red Raiders have pushed Missouri and Texas to the limit in recent games — both on the road.

But hey, you play to win the game, not give a good effort. Losers lose.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 16-0 NCAA 8 4 4 W-11 Kansas USC Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 14-2 NCAA 1 3 2 L-1 Arizona Kansas State Bill Self
Texas A&M 3 10-6 NCAA 29 44 38 W-3 Missouri Nebraska Mark Turgeon
Baylor 4 9-7 NCAA 64 50 48 W-1 Texas A&M Iowa State Scott Drew
Kansas State 5 8-8 NCAA 31 37 34 W-1 Kansas Colorado (2) Frank Martin
Missouri 6 8-8 NCAA 30 22 24 W-2 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Colorado 7 7-9 NIT 90 56 56 W-1 Missouri Oklahoma Tad Boyle
Nebraska 8 7-9 NIT 74 47 51 W-2 Texas A&M Davidson Doc Sadler
Oklahoma State 9 6-10 NIT 52 83 79 L-2 Missouri Texas Tech Travis Ford
Oklahoma 10 4-12 None 126 128 128 L-4 Baylor Chaminade Jeff Capel
Texas Tech 11 4-12 None 152 135 139 L-4 Oklahoma State TCU Pat Knight
Iowa State 12 3-13 CBI 142 74 67 L-8 Baylor Texas Tech Fred Hoiberg

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

**According to RealTimeRPI



Wow, look at all that green. In three years of doing this, I don't think I've ever seen one game have that much impact.

The long-expected shuffle finally happened. On the heels of a BIG 12 OUTLOOK in which virtually nothing changed, the developments of this week have thrown everything into flux.

K-State sees its first significant upward movement in weeks with the unexpected win over Kansas. The Cats' computer profile has improved significantly enough — and they've added a signature win — for me to pencil them in as an NCAA team for now.

Likewise, as long as Baylor keeps taking care of business, it looks as if the Bears will make it to 9-7, which I think is the magic number for tourney inclusion this season. Drop the game in Stillwater, though, and that might change. As of right now, I think Baylor falls on the right side of the bubble.

The antecedents to the green and the purple are the black and gold/orange, however.

Missouri is losing steam in the computers and desperately needs to log its first conference road win today. Colorado is a lost cause if the Buffaloes can't win in Lawrence. And Oklahoma State just needs to beat anybody — or even better, virtually everybody.

GAMER: No changes.

Pomeroy: Now has Baylor winning at Oklahoma State, and Missouri losing at Kansas State and Nebraska.

Sagarin: Now has Baylor winning at Oklahoma State.



Never before has a 4-1 week felt so good.

it just goes to show you the power of home-court advantage. But for a freak ending in Norman, home teams would have been 5-0 in conference play this week (and 6-0 if you count Baylor's mail-it-in win over Wayland Baptist, but I hate to count that and encourage Scott Drew to schedule a team that bad again in the future).

OUTLOOK has been feeling pretty good for a while about the chances of Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M on the road today, but an upset in any of those three games would surprise precisely no one.

Missouri has to win a road game eventually, right? But the Tigers better defend the perimeter, because Iowa State can shoot the 3 well and is even more due for a victory of any kind. Oklahoma State's back is against the wall if the Cowboys have any hope of going to the Big Dance, and beating the Aggies is a must.

And if Texas is going to drop a game, today might be it. Nebraska plays a similar style of game — slow it down, play tenacious defense and get just enough scoring to win. If the Huskers can weather the first five minutes of the game, when most Texas opponents fall behind by double digits, they have a decent chance to be in it at the end.

Cumulative pick record: 51-15 (.773)



Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
6-0 (1.000)
71 O-State
75 Colorado
57 Baylor
72 I-State
60 Tech
94 K-State
60 Nebraska
63 Kansas
89 Missouri
91 A&M (OT)
46 Oklahoma
66 Texas
5-1 (.833)
85 Kansas
65 Baylor
59 K-State
75 Missouri
67 Colorado
79 Nebraska
74 Tech
83 Oklahoma
87 I-State
96 O-State (OT)
60 A&M
81 Texas
3-3 (.500)
57 O-State
76 Baylor
60 Colorado
67 Oklahoma
56 K-State
64 A&M
74 Texas
63 Kansas
54 I-State
87 Missouri
71 Nebraska
72 Tech
3-1 (.750)
61 Baylor
69 K-State
82 Kansas
78 Colorado
92 Tech
83 I-State
61 Texas
46 O-State
4-2 (.667)
66 Colorado
70 Baylor
82 Oklahoma
76 I-State (OT)
66 K-State
90 Kansas
58 Missouri
71 Texas
48 A&M
57 Nebraska
74 O-State
75 Tech (OT)
4-2 (.667)
69 Texas
49 A&M
88 Kansas
66 Tech
66 Baylor
73 Oklahoma
69 I-State
95 Colorado
53 Nebraska
69 K-State
70 Missouri
76 O-State
4-2 (.667)
86 K-State
85 I-State
73 Colorado
89 Missouri
86 Kansas
66 Nebraska
75 Oklahoma
81 O-State
76 Baylor
74 A&M (OT)
60 Tech
76 Texas
3-1 (.750)
86 Missouri
103 Kansas
73 A&M
70 Colorado (OT)
70 Nebraska
74 Baylor
68 Texas
52 Oklahoma
6-0 (1.000)
56 K-State
58 Colorado
66 I-State
89 Kansas
61 Oklahoma
84 Missouri
54 O-State
65 Nebraska
70 A&M
67 Tech
60 Baylor
69 Texas
4-1 (0.800)
68 Kansas
84 K-State
84 Tech
92 Missouri
66 I-State
71 A&M
59 Nebraska
58 Oklahoma
55 O-State
73 Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
A&M (PS)
@ O-State (G)
@ Kansas (GPS)
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado (GPS)
@ Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
@ Nebraska (GPS)
@ A&M (GPS)
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (S)
@ Nebraska (GP)
Baylor (PS)
@ O-State (G)
@ I-State (GPS)
@ Kansas (GPS)
@ Tech (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
@ Colorado (GPS)
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
@ A&M (GPS)
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