BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.12.11


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.11.2011)


 

A fairly unsurprising week in which four of the 12 teams had byes led to few changes in the standings, be they current or predicted.

In the battle royale in Boulder, it was Texas A&M escaping the Six-Pack with a hard-fought win (and an assist from Colorado). But it might be only a temporary reprieve.

It would not be inconceivable for Texas A&M to lose at Texas Tech. (Remember what Mike Singletary did to the Aggies two years ago in the Big 12 Tournament?)

If that happens, and Baylor loses at Texas as expected and K-State steals one at Colorado, we could have five teams tied at five losses entering next week. Which means I'll have to think of a new nickname...

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 16-0 NCAA 8 3 4 W-9 Kansas USC Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 15-1 NCAA 1 2 2 W-5 Arizona Texas Bill Self
Texas A&M 3 10-6 NCAA 30 38 36 W-1 Missouri Nebraska Mark Turgeon
Missouri 4 9-7 NCAA 29 21 23 L-1 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Baylor 5 8-8 Bubble 70 51 49 W-2 Texas A&M Iowa State Scott Drew
Colorado 6 7-9 NIT 99 58 57 L-2 Missouri San Francisco Tad Boyle
Oklahoma State 7 7-9 Bubble 44 81 80 W-2 Missouri Texas Tech Travis Ford
Kansas State 8 7-9 Bubble 34 42 38 W-2 Virginia Tech Colorado Frank Martin
Nebraska 9 6-10 NIT 95 47 51 L-3 Texas A&M Davidson Doc Sadler
Oklahoma 10 4-12 None 121 124 125 L-2 Baylor Chaminade Jeff Capel
Texas Tech 11 4-12 None 144 143 146 L-2 Oklahoma State TCU Pat Knight
Iowa State 12 3-13 CBI 146 78 66 L-6 Baylor Texas Tech Fred Hoiberg

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

The only change in the projected seed order came because one of the computers flipped its Bedlam result, not because of anything that happened during this week. Thus, this is a pretty boring update.

I find it interesting to note that the three viable bubble teams (Baylor, K-State and Oklahoma State) all are riding winning streaks, while the six teams on losing streaks are not really in the tournament picture. This certainly is the time for bubble teams to be finding their stride.

Meanwhile, I knocked Iowa State down to CBI status for the first time all year. It pained me to do so because I respect what Fred Hoiberg is doing, but the Cyclones are predicted to finish with a losing overall record after dropping a winnable game last Saturday. That's not NIT material, especially with all the blown late leads.

GAMER: No changes.

Pomeroy: Now has Oklahoma State winning at Oklahoma.

Sagarin: No changes.

 

Self-Evaluation

I'm batting around .750 for the year and I maintained that average this week by going 3-1.

As usual, the one whiff was tantalizingly close to a success. Colorado held a three-point lead with four seconds remaining, but somehow let the Aggies take it to overtime and subsequently collapsed. No computer can account for that.

OUTLOOK likes all the home teams this week except Texas Tech. But I'll definitely chalk the latter game up as a potential upset alert, nonetheless. If Texas A&M is shaky enough to almost lose at Colorado and drop four in a row, it's perfectly capable of losing in Lubbock and losing four of five.

Cumulative pick record: 41-14 (.745)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
01.15
6-0 (1.000)
71 O-State
75 Colorado
57 Baylor
72 I-State
60 Tech
94 K-State
60 Nebraska
63 Kansas
89 Missouri
91 A&M (OT)
46 Oklahoma
66 Texas
01.17-01.19
5-1 (.833)
85 Kansas
65 Baylor
59 K-State
75 Missouri
67 Colorado
79 Nebraska
74 Tech
83 Oklahoma
87 I-State
96 O-State (OT)
60 A&M
81 Texas
01.22
3-3 (.500)
57 O-State
76 Baylor
60 Colorado
67 Oklahoma
56 K-State
64 A&M
74 Texas
63 Kansas
54 I-State
87 Missouri
71 Nebraska
72 Tech
01.24-01.26
3-1 (.750)
61 Baylor
69 K-State
82 Kansas
78 Colorado
92 Tech
83 I-State
61 Texas
46 O-State
01.29
4-2 (.667)
66 Colorado
70 Baylor
82 Oklahoma
76 I-State (OT)
66 K-State
90 Kansas
58 Missouri
71 Texas
48 A&M
57 Nebraska
74 O-State
75 Tech (OT)
01.31-02.02
4-2 (.667)
69 Texas
49 A&M
88 Kansas
66 Tech
66 Baylor
73 Oklahoma
69 I-State
95 Colorado
53 Nebraska
69 K-State
70 Missouri
76 O-State
02.05
4-2 (.667)
86 K-State
85 I-State
73 Colorado
89 Missouri
86 Kansas
66 Nebraska
75 Oklahoma
81 O-State
76 Baylor
74 A&M (OT)
60 Tech
76 Texas
02.07-02.09
3-1 (.750)
86 Missouri
103 Kansas
73 A&M
70 Colorado (OT)
70 Nebraska
74 Baylor
68 Texas
52 Oklahoma
02.12
K-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
02.14-02.16
Kansas (GPS)
@ K-State
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
I-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.19
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
A&M (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.21-02.23
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado (PS)
@ Tech (G)
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
02.26
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
02.28-03.02
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (PS)
@ Nebraska (G)
Baylor
@ O-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
03.05
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
X
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