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So not to beat a dead horse but...



This is another thread about Cosh. With that being said I took a different approach when looking at his ability as a defensice coordinator. The way I looked at it was with his success as the DC at strictly KSU. Now if memory serves me correctly he first came back at the end of Snyder's first run from 04-05. Now I think we can all agree that while mostly comparable the talent level was better on the defense and more fitted to Cosh's scheme. Now if you think about it in those 2 seasons the offenses were similar to what we see now. So what I looked was the total defense number through Snyder's first run with all the different D-coordinators he had under him, and to me the following numbers tell the story.

Starting in 95 when the cats were number 1 in total defense that year through 2003 they were no lower than 16 (in 96) and after that year regularly bounced between 2-6. I know that we had alot of talent graduate in 03 but still after that kind of showing over 8 years the fact that in 04 and 05 the cats dropped into the mid 40s tells the whole story IMO. Also in some of those years we were in the top 10 nationally in defensive pass efficiency. So I know there's always something but those number right there speak volumes about what we used to and should be and where we are now.

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Google NCAA archived football stats

and click on the second link down I believe. It’s the ncaa.org website you want. That’s where I found these numbers.

"Complacency kills." USMC
"Lynch 'em!" _lmml_

by thepurplemob on Dec 6, 2011 3:23 PM CST reply actions  

One problem that isn't accounted for in the total defense rankings

Is the rise of the pass heavy spread offense that really got going in the Big 12 right around 2004. Which is why I think that measuring defensive performance against an opponents season average is a much better indicator than total yardage, as my post analyzing the past three years of Cosh at KSU did. (also, Cosh was here from 2003-2005)

But back in 2004 offenses were just starting to light EVERYBODY up in the Big 12. Look at this year, for example. The top defense in the Big 12, Texas, is ranked #14 nationally. The second best defense in the Big 12? Missouri, at #61, followed by #62 Oklahoma. I remember this trend really taking off around that time. (though I haven’t done the extensive stat comparison’s for those years, so this is only anecdotal evidence, and therefore highly suspect)

Is this because the Big 12 has a bunch of crappy defenses, or because we have a bunch of the best offenses in the nation? Well, that is pretty hard to determine, given the small amount of cross-conference games that are played.

However, I am working on a post for next week comparing the best Big 12 defenses with others around the country. Hopefully this will be even more informative.

Would you like some Freys with that?

by ChrisP Wildcat on Dec 6, 2011 9:12 PM CST reply actions  

coulda swore Cosh was only a 2004-2005 fixture

at least as the sole coordinator

"Nor yet in Dell?"

by GTcat on Dec 6, 2011 10:35 PM CST up reply actions  

though Bobby Elliot was here in 2003

Bielma maybe…I think he left in 02

"Nor yet in Dell?"

by GTcat on Dec 6, 2011 10:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, yes, I was wrong.

From Cosh’s wikipedia article:

He served as linebackers coach in 2004 and 2005 for the Kansas State Wildcats under head coach Bill Snyder, before returning to Maryland as their defensive coordinator and linebackers coach with head coach Ralph Friedgen.

So, not only was he only here from 04-05, he was only a linebackers coach during that time. I could have sworn I looked this up several days ago (not on wikipedia) and it said he was defensive coordinator, but oh well, I was wrong.

Also, not his first encounter with the questioning of his defensive coaching abilities:

While at Maryland, Cosh was frequently criticized by fans for the inconsistent performance by Maryland’s defense, which was described as “poor to occasionally impressive”. Friedgen praised Cosh’s recruiting but showed public frustration with Cosh’s in-game coaching.

Would you like some Freys with that?

by ChrisP Wildcat on Dec 6, 2011 11:16 PM CST up reply actions  

I understand this was before the spread become so prominent in our conference...

and do whole heartedly agree with you that this has definitely lead to the drop off in high ranked defenses in the Big XII. However I will follow that up by saying that Cosh needs to realize that while better than last years squad this years squad is still not on the athletic level needed to play his scheme…I can’t think of many defenses in the country this year that are at the needed level. If you take a really hard look at the defensive scheme in place it’s not very hard to beat because it’s passive. That statement right there already causes reason for concern. When i played in HS I was a D-End and LB and we were constantly drilled on being aggressive. I mean really that’s what defense is all about being aggressive, physical and bringing the wood. While the physicality of our defense this year has been nice the lack of aggression has not. I understand it’s done to keep from giving up the big play, keeping everything in front of you, and waiting for the offense to make a mistake and then jump on it. The problem with that coaching philosophy is it will never work with any kind of success in our conference due to the level of these offenses and how well coached the players in these systems are.

The defense being this way affects other aspects of the game as well. One of these being the offensive play calling. Snyder is a great coach and he sees and realizes the ability of our defense within this scheme. That’s why we used such a meticulous ball control offense because Klein, Hubert, Harper, Lockett, Thompson, and the rest showed all year that despite what everyone thinks the big play ability of this offense was there just not taken advantage of. LHCBS is an offensive schemeing mastermind all the different wrinkles he comes up with are amazing. That being said he can only take advantage of so many of those when he has to be conservative and not take chances with the ball. I mean lets be honest when our offense isn’t controlling the clock and our defense spends alot of time on the field it isn’t pretty.

Finally I don’t know who is teaching our defensive back how to run zone coverage but generally when you ran a zone similar to cover 2, which is what our regular pass coverage appears to be at least a derivative of. The LBs are generally used to watch the flats and middle of the field…staying UNDERNEATH the short crossing routes, corners jam off the line and drop about 8-10 yards (depending on the routes) staying OVER the hitch, slant, and out routes and under the deep crossing, post, corner, and go routes. Hopefully they will be reading the quarterbacks eyes to make a play on the ball (Nigel Malone) and finally the safeties drop into the deep halves and stay on top of everything. This coverage is designed that if ran properly is makes the quarterback throw into tight windows with every receiver ideally having a defender underneath and over the top of them.

There are two major concerns I have with our using this as a base defensive scheme.
1) If the defense is unable to generate a good pass rush with the front four you’re going to get burned often. All players and coaches know that these pass heavy spread offenses are very reliant on timing so the faster the ball comes out it will usually hurt the plays timing and inhibits the QB from going through all of his progressions comfortably.
2) How does it make sense to run this when our base defense is 4-3? It doesn’t LBs like Arthur Brown, that are dynamite against the run and have the physical skills required to drop into coverage, don’t just grow on trees. Also we don’t have the speed at safety to run with some of the better offenses ie ARKANSAS that we have to play. It was nice to see them both recognized by the Big XII today because not getting pressure on a QB like Jones or Weeden and giving them time to read and hit their playmakers accurately can make anyone look worse than they really are.

One final thing this is BY NO MEANS AT ALL a dig against any player what-so-ever. This is a criticism of the coaching because it has been obivous, and painfully so how much more succesful our defense has been against pass heavy teams when we brought +1 or 2 on disguised blitzes. It was more succesful from what i saw than when we dropped 7 back in coverage.

Ok I’m off my soap box now sorry.

One final thought…you want to see how to have a balanced defense that can defend the spread and the physical running game. Find videos and write-ups that break down the basics of Gary Patterson’s 4-2-5 that TCU runs, its very impressive.

"Complacency kills." USMC
"Lynch 'em!" _lmml_

by thepurplemob on Dec 7, 2011 4:32 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Wow, very good schematic analysis thepurplemob.

Yeah, I’m kind of a stats geek, so I like to focus on the numbers as a barometer of success, and I am much more in-tune with the offensive side of the ball when talking scheme, so seeing something like this that breaks down the defensive philosophy in an understandable language is refreshing.

My philosophy tends to be, “If what they are doing is working (as shown to me be statistical analysis), then that is good enough for me.” That is mainly because I am just not that good at analyzing defense. Sure, sometimes I see obvious scheming mistakes, but I can never quite tell if that is truly a fault of scheme, or just a player who screwed up (which, to an extent, is still a reflection on the coach). But yeah, this kind of review still definitely needs to be conducted.

It is quite possible that Cosh is over-performing due to some amazing diamonds-in-the-rough that he has found (he was lauded for his recruiting ability) that are succeeding despite his scheme, which obviously wouldn’t show up in a statistical review (though I do try to account for that when doing the analysis, as much as possible).

Of course, if he is bringing in these hidden gems, and developing them to that level, you have to give him some credit for that. The question would be, is his recruiting good enough that his deficiencies in scheme can be forgiven?

I would say that at a certain level of success, yes, they would be. But I’m not so sure that Cosh meets that level. Which brings me back to the stats (sorry, can’t help myself). I can use these to objectively evaluate whether his defenses are performing at a satisfactory level. Then we have to ask ourselves what exactly is a satisfactory level.

So, basically, great post.

Would you like some Freys with that?

by ChrisP Wildcat on Dec 7, 2011 9:10 PM CST up reply actions  

another hypothesis, is perhaps our lack of aggressiveness due to

lack of depth/lack of conditioning? Obviously blitzing a lot, and running more man on man will wear out your personnel? Do they run the scheme that they do to compensate for that in order that they can have their best personnel out on the field for 95% of the game?

I don’t like the lack of aggressiveness either, but at 10-2, I guess it worked well enough.

I have mixed emotions on Cosh:

1) it’s hard for me to say I WANT to keep him. The tendencies and history are there to project out to be no better than a fringe top 25 defense (meaning, he MIGHT have a chance to finish the year as a 26th-30th total defense as a ceiling IMO).
2) On the other hand 10-2 is 10-2 no matter which way you slice it. Now definitely there were plenty of games that could have gone either way, and with an inconsistent “well performing clutch” defense there’s no guarantees you can project this out for the future. However his recipe worked this year and he deserves credit. I don’t want to get rid of the guy after a 10-2 season just for the sake of getting rid of him. Now if the right guy shows up and says I would like to be your D-coordinator Bill, you have to make the move. So I think it all boils down to, who out there is definitively better than a trending upward Chris Cosh? Jim Leavitt? Yes, but he probably isn’t looking for the job. But don’t fire Cosh after this year just to give someone else a try. We have a lot of people returning on D next year, and continuity is probably advantageous for us. In all honesty, I said last year you have to set a standard now for improvement, and hold him to it next year, which he didn’t meet (finish with a total defense in the top 51-60 range, he finished 76…sure I guess you can wait for the bowl game). But if the right guy isn’t out there, why fire him? If the guy can’t improve the defense into the 41-50 range next year, yo have to can him.

See where I’m mixed?

"Nor yet in Dell?"

by GTcat on Dec 8, 2011 12:45 PM CST up reply actions  

I think you may ned to adjust your criteria, though.

Because, frankly, in the Big 12, you are probably not going to have a great defense.

I made this point elsewhere, but I’ll make it again.

The best defense in the Big 12 is ranked #14 nationally (Texas).

The 2nd best defense? #61 Missouri. So, theoretically, if Cosh had crafted the second best defense in the Big 12, based on total yardage, he would still have fallen outside your criteria.

FWIW, here are the Big 12 total defense rankings:
14 – Texas
61- Missouri
62 – Oklahoma
66 – aTm
76 – KSU
98 – Iowa State
107 – OSU
114 – Baylor
115 – Texas Tech
120 – KU

Would you like some Freys with that?

by ChrisP Wildcat on Dec 8, 2011 1:03 PM CST up reply actions  

I've seen it before...

But if Texas can have #14, I don’t think clamoring for #41 is unreasonable. Nothing in this world lasts forever. The spread offenses are relatively young (we might be approaching 10 years now). You expect defenses to never catch up? Why do you think we can run so well? Most defensive schemes are designed to react to the spread. Everything in CFB is cyclical. I don’t think shooting for a top 50 defense is unreachable criteria.

Like I said, I tried last year in the off-season to sit back and ask what is reasonable. I know it’s apples and oranges 1995 to 2011, so no I’m not asking for the #1 ranked defense. But what I want to point out is #76 is not acceptable long-term. This goes for anything in life. Everyone should always shoot for becoming better than they were in the previous year at whatever you did.

"Nor yet in Dell?"

by GTcat on Dec 8, 2011 7:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Ture points, all of them.

But, #76 is better than last year.

And my point was, that I think it is only fair to re-evaluate your goals after the season is over.

Sure, last year setting the benchmark for success at 50-60 sounded reasonable, but after the season played out, and only 1 team in the Big 12 managed to meet those criteria, I would think that would warrant a re-evaluation of whether that benchmark was reasonable/attainable.

I kind of agree about things being cyclical, but I would argue it is more like a spiral than a circle. Trends are circling back around and recycling some old tactics, but never in the same way.

I’m not sure that defenses will actually “catch up” with the spread in terms of being the shut-down defenses of yesteryear. I know that is a bit of a gamble to make that prognostication, but I do think that there is a limited amount of tactics a defense can deploy against the spread. They will get better at stopping them, but teams are still going to put up points and yards at what is currently viewed as a high level. I don’t foresee many more 6-3 ballgames in the future. There will be some, for sure, because of weather, or just an off-day, but I think that having both teams score more than 24 points will be the norm.

But that is kind of beside the point. My point wasn’t that you should just accept being ranked #76. My point was that, after a season is over and you conduct a review, you have to do more than just check and see if the benchmarks were met. You have to review whether or not those goals were even reasonable.

Because at the beginning of a season, all your doing is guessing, really, as to the ability/talent of the rest of the conference. Expecting a 50-60 defense at the beginning of the season is perfectly reasonable and may even be a bit of a low goal. However, after all the games have been played and you know just how good all those teams were, it may be that those goals were never realistic with your talent.

Which isn’t to say that you are wrong or that I am right. I just am trying to be objective, and the best way I know how to do that is by turning to numbers.

Now that you have finished my novel, go to the bookstore and get the sequel!

Would you like some Freys with that?

by ChrisP Wildcat on Dec 8, 2011 8:49 PM CST up reply actions  

I see what you're saying, and now I think that IS fair...

to re-evaluate oneself. It just gets hard, now that we have 6 years of statistical evidence to be trying to slice mediocrity into a positive. Though I will agree this defense is MUCH MUCH better, and I’ll definitely take it and accept it this year, but I think you continue to have to set expectations a little higher and higher each year. Since we’re not losing a drastic amount of talent this year (though we lose some key spots), I don’t think it’s asking much for a 10 spot increase between this year and next, because long term #76D probably is only associated with a 10 win season 3 out of 10 times.

"Nor yet in Dell?"

by GTcat on Dec 9, 2011 6:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Not at all.

In fact, based on returning talent at K-State and the leaving talent around the Big 12, I think we should probably expect a top-40 defense next year.

Would you like some Freys with that?

by ChrisP Wildcat on Dec 9, 2011 6:17 PM CST up reply actions  

I think what I can tell, is this is one of those times where

I’m really on the same page as you in a lot of areas…

So sweet! I will now stop talking about 2012 KSU football, and begin to hone back in on what nice of a thing we have going for us in 2011!

I’m interested to start getting the articles that roll out in the Bowl prep period. Namely, who the Scout team standouts are. Last year I remember the Mercury having a good article from the linemen talking about how going up against AB in practice was harder than any LB they faced in the Big 12…I also remember the Mercury having good tidbits about BJ Finney. They hit on both last year. Getting excited for those to roll out soon this year, and see who makes the list.

"Nor yet in Dell?"

by GTcat on Dec 9, 2011 6:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Indeed.

From what I’ve heard, Klein’s little brother is going to be really good. That’s really the only interesting thing I’ve heard about the non-playing guys, though. I am thirsting for more.

Would you like some Freys with that?

by ChrisP Wildcat on Dec 9, 2011 6:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Seau is legit.

Which makes some crazy DEs. Young as they may be.

When life hands you lemons, make grape juice. Let them wonder how the F*ck you did it.
Fight till Hell freezes over and then fight them on the ice.

by BlackCats on Dec 10, 2011 1:30 AM CST up reply actions  

I think clamoring for #41 IS unreasonable

At least this year, with these players. You’re talking about the 2nd best defense in the conference, by a wide margin. We just aren’t that talented, bottom line.

Now, long term, I’d certainly like to see that happen. Bring in some more playmakers, and that should be a goal. I just don’t see how you can blame Cosh for not getting there this year. Unless you’re blaming his inability to recruit better.

by smitty3268 on Dec 9, 2011 3:00 AM CST up reply actions  

For clarity, I was referencing to 41-50 in 2012

my expectations last year going into this year of what type of performance would be “a heck of a job” that would hands down clearly make a case for KEEPING Cosh around again would be 51-60. Now finishing 76 is not in a clear cut area. IMO, it’s still up for debate. It definitely makes a case for improvement or strides, but to me it’s not clear cut “oh yea this guy’s a true winner” type of performance.

I’m not trying to discredit anything he did or the rest of the players, because there were definitely 2 or 3 games that the defense won for us (Miami, Baylor and Iowa State) and plenty more where they set the offense up to win games. I just wanted to perform an exercise last year to make it more fair to have something to hold him to this year, instead of this year trying to come up with some sort of measuring stick after the fact.

And maybe unachievable is a better word. It might not exactly be reasonable. I just think that using the “we’re a spread offensive conference” line is getting to be a bit overused. After all, it’s probably a 50/50 split of spread vs non-spread teams these days anyway, and it’s not like there aren’t other conferences out there like that as well. It would be interesting to see what the PAC-12’s overall defensive numbers look like.

"Nor yet in Dell?"

by GTcat on Dec 9, 2011 6:14 PM CST up reply actions  

and by "debate"

I mean, I’m not convinced one way or another he’s great or horrible.

"Nor yet in Dell?"

by GTcat on Dec 9, 2011 6:15 PM CST up reply actions  

The offenses in our conference are far superior to the PAC12

But I think we mostly agree. I agree we should have much better numbers next year when you look at who we return and who other teams are losing.

by smitty3268 on Dec 10, 2011 12:57 AM CST up reply actions  

oh yea I think I'm with you there

but I think Oregon, USC, perhaps ASU (and soon to be Wazzu) could almost tit for tat cancel out 4 teams in the big 12.

"Nor yet in Dell?"

by GTcat on Dec 10, 2011 11:34 PM CST up reply actions  

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