Kicking the Tires: Oklahoma Sooners
by TB on Oct 28, 2011 2:00 PM CDT
in Football
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Players to Watch
K-State
Rushing: John Hubert, 122 carries, 637 yards, 2 TD, 5.2 yards/carry
Passing: Collin Klein, 82-138-3, 934 yards, 8 TD, 6.8 yards/attempt
Receiving: Chris Harper, 26 receptions, 306 yards, 3 TD, 11.8 yards/reception, 43.7 yards/game
Defensive Line: Ray Kibble, 21 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.0 sacks
Linebacker: Arthur Brown, 53 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 1 INT
Secondary: David Garrett, 44 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 2 INT, 1 fumble recovered
Oklahoma
Rushing: Dom Whaley, 113 carries, 627 yards, 9 TD, 5.5 yards/carry
Passing: Landry Jones, 201-308-7, 2,589 yards, 21 TD, 8.4 yards/attempt
Receiving: Ryan Broyles, 67 receptions, 889 yards, 9 TD, 13.4 yards/reception, 128.4 yards/game
Defensive Line: Frank Alexander, 36 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 1 INT, 1 fumble recovered
Linebacker: Travis Lewis, 51 tackles, 2.0 TFL
Secondary: Aaron Colvin, 47 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery
Dear Frank Alexander: Please don't kill any of our players. Dear K-State offensive line: Please block Mr. Alexander.
With Oklahoma being such a national name, its star players don't need much introduction. Landry Jones is carving up defenses again this year, although he's been a little less spectacular in his last two games, completing only 54.5 percent of his passes and throwing a pick in the loss against Texas Tech, and 60.4 percent with a pick against KU. He also fell short of his season average for yards per attempt in both games.
Keep in mind that Oklahoma was missing several key players against Texas Tech. Dom Whaley, who you'll notice above is Oklahoma's leading rusher (and a good story, too), did not play against the Red Raiders, and Oklahoma's rushing game suffered for it, gaining only 124 yards in the game. Bob Stoops said he was sick, so presumably he will be back Saturday. The Sooners were really hurt on defense, missing Casey Walker (DL), Tom Wort (LB), and Jamell Fleming (DB) against Texas Tech. That's two top-10 tacklers on the team. It sounds like Wort will be back, but if Fleming is still out, K-State will have a mark to pick on in the secondary. Backup defensive back Gabe Lynn was abused by Texas Tech. Definitely wouldn't mind seeing Chris Harper or Tyler Lockett get a few chances against Lynn.
Team Statistics (from CFBStats.com)
Rushing Offense
K-State: 19th nationally, 213.86 yards/game
Oklahoma: 52nd, 166.57 yards/game
Passing Offense
K-State: 110th, 140.9 yards/game
Oklahoma: 4th, 379.0 yards/game
Total Offense
K-State: 89th, 354.7 yards/game
Oklahoma: 4th, 545.6 yards/game
Rushing Defense
K-State: 13th, 93.86 yards/game
Oklahoma: 27th, 116.57 yards/game
Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State: 52nd
Oklahoma: 24th
Total Defense
K-State: 30th, 337.1 yards/game
Oklahoma: 41st, 353.6 yards/game
So much to dive into here.
While Oklahoma isn't great at anything defensively, they're plenty solid. With the exception of Kent State, they will be the best in total defense K-State has faced this year. And Kent State's prowess on defense may be due as much to the quality of teams they are facing than anything, Alabama notwithstanding.
An interesting question was posed on the site this week regarding the frustration of K-State's opponents after losses. I think it was Morse said he believes K-State has held each of its opponents below their season average in total yards. In fact, two of K-State's opponents during that stretch have exceeded their season averages. Miami gained 411 yards, against a season average coming into that game of 365, and Texas Tech went for 580 after averaging 524 coming in. But everyone else, including Baylor (594/429), Missouri (517/326), and KU (452/286). Interesting that when K-State has held teams below their season average, it has done so by an average of 174 yards per game.
OK, time to take a look at the hidden-yardage stats, to see if Oklahoma will be able to take away what K-State uses to equalize the playing field against more-talented but less-disciplined teams.
Turnover Margin
K-State: 10th, +8
Oklahoma: 45th, +2
Penalties
K-State: 35th, 45.3 yards/game
Oklahoma: 21st, 41.1 yards/game
Third-Down Conversions
K-State: 24th, 48.11 percent
Oklahoma: 49th, 43.69 percent
Red-Zone Conversions
K-State: 37th, 86.84 percent
Oklahoma: 24th, 89.84 percent
Time of Possession
K-State: 1st, 34:50
Oklahoma: 77th, 28:56
Overall, OU holds its own, but K-State holds the upper hand in most of these categories. Oklahoma has turned the ball over 13 times this season, or almost twice per game. If the Sooners do that again Saturday, they will play their part of the script.
Of course, that assumes that the script holds. I almost hesitate to bring this up, but whether I mention it or not has no bearing on how the players play on the field. K-State has fumbled the ball 14 times this season, but have only lost four of them. If you assume that an oddly shaped ball will bounce randomly and that the odds of recovering a fumble are approximately 50/50, then the Wildcats are a few ahead of the game. There's never a good time for turnovers, but Saturday would be a particularly bad time to regress to the mean. On top of that, Klein has made a few poor throws this season that could have been interceptions. You all jumped on me when I called that pass to Harper a dead duck, but when I rewatched the game, that ball was wobbling like a college student on his way home from Aggieville. Fortunately, we had KU's crappy defense out there and we got a pass interference penalty. Oklahoma may very well turn that type of throw into an interception.
So, where does all that put us? I expect to see a tough game that is up for grabs to the very end. Over the course of this season, we've bemoaned the poor starts and occasional poor series by the offense, while noting that when it catches fire this offense is capable of lighting up the scoreboard. Expect to see a few more of those against a defense as good as Oklahoma's. It will be very, very important for K-State to avoid turnovers and three-and-outs. Given the season stats in turnover margin and third-down conversions, you have to feel like they'll be able to do that. On defense, getting in Landry Jones' face early and often is a must. If we can knock him off rhythm and prevent his receivers from having even the chance to make plays, good things will follow.
Alas, pessimistic TB has returned. While I think this game will be close all the way through, I can't shake the feeling that Sooner Magic will rear its ugly head and steal this one from us in Manhattan. The Sooners get a late field goal to win, 34-31.
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NOT IT
I may have said something like that about rushing yards, though.
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Mixed feelings
Kind like it’s been all season, just not sure what to expect. Though, that’s more to do with OU than K-State. Unless the Cats play completely out of character (TOs, penalties) I figure we know what they will try to do. It’s OU. Do we get the OU of the past two weeks? Or the OU that garnered a No. 1 ranking?
I think we can safely say that...
OU should not have been number 1…as LSU and Alabama are clearly better. Number 3 seems to be about right. Definitely top 10.
The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather in a lack of will. - Vince Lombardi
Tough but winnable game
There’s alot of talk that OU was missing key players, but last week Tech was missing it’s leading rusher, it’s center (which caused about 20 botched snaps during the game and pressure on the QB), and several defensive starters. It’s fair to say that Tech was more banged up than OU was.
I think KSU can win this with or without OU being banged up. Have to put the ball in the air though.
I really wish you hadn't mentioned anything about those fumbles
I cringe just thinking about those catching up with us on Saturday. I’m just glad that we’re less than 24 hours away from kickoff…let’s get this thing going!
KSU 31 - 28 OU
Once again, I have mixed feelings. On the one hand I like that Oklahoma lost because that means they are, in fact, beatable. On the other hand I might have preferred them to not know that yet and come into Manhattan arrogant and KSU sneaks up on them to give them their first loss.
Also, while KSU certainly has the potential to beat OU, I just don’t know if the magic ride can continue. Oklahoma will be angry and hungry, and I just think they will probably step up in this one to take the streak away from us.
I hope I am wrong.
Would you like some Freys with that?
I figure...
KSU is roughly equal or a bit better overall than Tech this year. (Tech is young and makes mistakes, which ended up being the difference against KSU).
If KSU can play it’s best game against OU, it will win. And this one isn’t in Norman.
My only hesitation with KSU is that the passing game isn’t the core strength. Tech surely exposed OU’s cornerbacks, but they were able to do that by keeping OU honest with a decent rushing game (despite not having it’s best rusher).
KSU has a much more potent rushing game than Tech, so putting a few more passes in the air against OU than normal will probably enable the rushing game to run it down their throats.
KSU WIN - LOSE OU
I’m skeptical of this OU team… Are they too hyped? Is the attention getting to them? Have they played quality teams that merit such a ranking? Is the poor play getting to them? Are they doubting themselves? How’s the collective team spirit? Anyway,way too many marks of confusion over OU.
I sense that our guys are motivated… extremely motivated. What you get when people are extremely motivated is passion and a determination to find a way to make it happen. With an OU team that is probably asking themselves the questions I tossed above, a thundering fan base rocking, a committed coaching staff — OU is walking away with their heads hanging.
http://igotitgames.com
Yeah that was me with the average yards
And I was asking, cause I wasn’t going to look it up.
I have KSU 34-28 if their running back if full strength. 34-31 if not.
I can’t quantify it in any way, but I just have a feeling that The D/special teams will have either score or set one up, we’ll have two rushing TDs and a passing TD. Tack on two field goals and we’re at 34. I think we hold them to FGs in the red zone and their Russian roulette kicking game derps a few and makes one, they have one big play, two solid drives and a score when we go to prevent D in the fourth.
When life hands you lemons, make grape juice. Let them wonder how the F*ck you did it.
Switch those scores around.
When life hands you lemons, make grape juice. Let them wonder how the F*ck you did it.
Not big on score predictions, but...
if KSU does end up losing, it’s by less than 13 pts. I expect to be in it the majority of the game.
"Nor yet in Dell?"
Oh come on, go for it. It feels good.
When life hands you lemons, make grape juice. Let them wonder how the F*ck you did it.
how about this one?
I predict one pitch to Hubert/Pease turned pass play. Introducing Scheme Dr.
"Nor yet in Dell?"
This game will be a true measure...
of how far we (hopefully) have come. The numbers are not necessarily in our favor, but numbers aren’t everything. I see 3 things that give me hope for this Saturday:
1. Our guys believe. In the last 2 games, I’ve seen a team that has fully “bought in”. They will fight until the last whistle blows.
2.Snyder vs Stoops. “I may have taught you every thing you know, but I didn’t teach you every thing I know…”
3. We have the Honey Badger. I think Meshak can knock Landry Jones down and make him cry. Frank Alexander might be able to knock HBCK down, but he can’t make him cry, he can only make him angry.
I see KSU 31 – Land Thieves 24.
This game is the first one in a while (other than ku, of course) that i feel pretty good about
Which makes me really nervous.
I predict
the team with the most points will win. This IS the case 9 out of every 10 times, you know…
Gonna be a good game. I don’t know that it will be too high scoring like both teams did against Tech. Should be interesting, but I will not hazard a guess.
Heart says KSU 31 OU 24
but head says OU 42 KSU 28.
Either way, I still despise you Bob Stoops.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
I've been going back and forth on this all week
I want this game worse than any other game on the schedule. But I just don’t think the Cats can keep the magic going against a team with so much talent, particularly at WR and D-line. OU 38 – KSU 21.
"If you don't want to work, become a reporter. That awful power, the public opinion of the nation, was created by a horde of self-complacent simpletons who failed at ditch digging and shoemaking and fetched up journalism on their way to the poorhouse." - Mark Twain
If only you had been right
I would take that score over the actual one in a heartbeat.
Would you like some Freys with that?
by ChrisP Wildcat on Oct 30, 2011 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions
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