BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.31.11


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.30.2011)


 

Texas continues to emasculate every conference team it plays on the defensive end of the court, while K-State provided the perfect tackling dummy for KU to release all of its pent-up aggression and sadness.

Meanwhile, it turns out that Iowa State is who we thought they were, after all.

The team picked 12th by the Big 12 coaches validated that selection with a perfectly awful week — twin losses at home in what should have been its easiest conference wins of the season.

Instead, the Cyclones helped to resuscitate the Red Raiders and Sooners.

K-State and Oklahoma State join the boys in Ames as this week's basement-dwellers, while the muddied middle grew even more so after an upset loss by Texas A&M (and/or best win of the season for Nebraska) and a crazy comeback by Baylor (and/or epic choke job by Colorado, which blew a 17-point lead to lose its fourth straight).

Just another wacky weekend in the Big 12...

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 16-0 NCAA 11 4 5 W-6 Kansas USC Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 15-1 NCAA 1 2 2 W-2 Arizona Texas Bill Self
Texas A&M 3 10-6 NCAA 17 33 30 L-1 Washington Nebraska Mark Turgeon
Missouri 4 9-7 NCAA 27 22 23 L-1 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Baylor 5 8-8 Bubble 86 53 49 W-1 Oklahoma State Iowa State Scott Drew
Colorado 6 8-8 NIT 94 58 58 L-4 Missouri Oklahoma Tad Boyle
Nebraska 7 7-9 Bubble 79 40 44 W-1 Texas A&M Davidson Doc Sadler
Oklahoma State 8 6-10 NIT 56 86 81 L-3 Missouri State Texas Tech Travis Ford
Kansas State 9 6-10 Bubble 42 54 45 L-1 James Madison Colorado Frank Martin
Texas Tech 10 4-12 CBI 149 138 145 W-3 Oklahoma State TCU Pat Knight
Iowa State 11 4-12 NIT 127 72 63 L-4 Baylor Texas Tech Fred Hoiberg
Oklahoma 12 3-13 None 120 132 131 W-3 Colorado Chaminade Jeff Capel

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Nebraska and Texas Tech both posted unexpected wins of different varieties. Although BIG 12 OUTLOOK had the Huskers winning (and so did Vegas), none of the so-called "experts" saw it coming. Meanwhile, OUTLOOK barely whiffed on the Tech game, considering it was a one-point overtime victory that one of the three systems predicted.

The wins launched Nebraska to the No. 7 seed and Tech to the No. 10 spot, which was good enough for me to now project Nebraska as a potential bubble team (its RPI dropped by more than 30 points in one day) and Tech as at least a CBI candidate.

But for every action, there is an equal but opposite reaction.

That would be Colorado, losers of four straight; Iowa State, also falling for the fourth time in a row; K-State, which has dropped five of seven; and Oklahoma State, currently riding a three-game skid. All but Colorado suffered in the new seed projections, and the Buffs cemented their NIT status.

GAMER: Now has Texas winning at Texas A&M.

Pomeroy: Now has Baylor losing at Oklahoma State, Missouri losing at Nebraska and Nebraska winning at Iowa State.

Sagarin: Now has Baylor losing at Oklahoma State, Missouri losing at Nebraska and Texas A&M losing at Colorado.

 

Self-Evaluation

As mentioned above, OUTLOOK came very close the other day to predicting a Texas Tech victory, but couldn't quite pull the trigger. I wonder if I will be picking Oklahoma State very much going forward, though. The Cowboys are reeling.

The other miss was the Oklahoma game, but considering it went to overtime, the Sooners snapped a 17-game road losing streak and one would think that ISU would be most likely to win that home game above all others, I really don't consider that much of a miss at all.

OUTLOOK likes a whopping four road teams this week, which is a sure sign that I'm about to get blasted in the prediction percentage. Someone's going to be upset, but who will it be?

Texas at Texas A&M? Maybe, but if Nebraska can hold the Aggies to 48 points, surely the Longhorns can, too.

Kansas at Texas Tech? Sorry, Tech, but Alan Voskuil's out of eligibility.

Baylor at Oklahoma? Baylor's pretty bad, but surely its athleticism should be sufficient to overcome even a red-hot Sooners team on a three-game winning streak.

Missouri at Oklahoma State? Considering it's Road Mizzou in a tough place to win against a team that desperately needs a win, that would be my pick. An Upset Watch is in effect for Stillwater...

Cumulative pick record: 30-9 (.769)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
01.15
6-0 (1.000)
71 O-State
75 Colorado
57 Baylor
72 I-State
60 Tech
94 K-State
60 Nebraska
63 Kansas
89 Missouri
91 A&M (OT)
46 Oklahoma
66 Texas
01.17-01.19
5-1 (.833)
85 Kansas
65 Baylor
59 K-State
75 Missouri
67 Colorado
79 Nebraska
74 Tech
83 Oklahoma
87 I-State
96 O-State (OT)
60 A&M
81 Texas
01.22
3-3 (.500)
57 O-State
76 Baylor
60 Colorado
67 Oklahoma
56 K-State
64 A&M
74 Texas
63 Kansas
54 I-State
87 Missouri
71 Nebraska
72 Tech
01.24-01.26
3-1 (.750)
61 Baylor
69 K-State
82 Kansas
78 Colorado
92 Tech
83 I-State
61 Texas
46 O-State
01.29
4-2 (.667)
66 Colorado
70 Baylor
82 Oklahoma
76 I-State (OT)
66 K-State
90 Kansas
58 Missouri
71 Texas
48 A&M
57 Nebraska
74 O-State
75 Tech (OT)
01.31-02.02
Texas (GPS)
@ A&M
Kansas (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
I-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.05
K-State
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
Baylor
@ A&M (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.07-02.09
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M (P)
@ Colorado (GS)
Nebraska
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
02.12
K-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
02.14-02.16
Kansas (GPS)
@ K-State
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
I-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.19
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
A&M (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.21-02.23
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado (PS)
@ Tech (G)
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
02.26
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Nebraska (P)
@ I-State (GS)
Missouri (P)
@ K-State (GS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
02.28-03.02
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor
@ O-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
03.05
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ Missouri (G)
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
X
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