BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.29.11


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.28.2011)


 

Texas continued to fend off Kansas by winning an obvious trap game in Stillwater.

The Cowboys were extremely emotional on a night designated to honor "The Ten," but that emotion wasn't sufficient enough to propel their team — which looks increasingly NIT-ish with each game it plays — to a win over what clearly is the best defensive team in the conference.

Also coming back to earth were Colorado, which has lost three straight, and Iowa State, which has lost four straight. In fact, the Cyclones' current residency seems to validate the coaches' preseason prediction for them of 12th place.

What this means is that K-State has a golden opportunity — after tonight's scheduled demolition, of course — to make hay in February against a bunch of 2-3 and 2-4 teams that the Wildcats should beat if they continue to improve.

Why play for the NIT if fifth place is still available?

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 16-0 NCAA 12 4 6 W-5 Kansas USC Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 15-1 NCAA 2 3 3 W-1 Arizona Texas Bill Self
Texas A&M 3 11-5 NCAA 18 29 30 W-1 Washington Boston College Mark Turgeon
Missouri 4 10-6 NCAA 26 18 23 W-2 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Baylor 5 9-7 Bubble 98 47 44 L-1 Oklahoma State Iowa State Scott Drew
Colorado 6 7-9 NIT 92 59 59 L-3 Missouri Oklahoma Tad Boyle
Oklahoma State 7 6-10 NIT 48 82 81 L-2 Missouri State Baylor Travis Ford
Kansas State 8 6-10 Bubble 45 46 41 W-1 James Madison Colorado Frank Martin
Nebraska 9 6-10 NIT 103 40 47 L-1 USC Davidson Doc Sadler
Iowa State 10 5-11 NIT 111 57 54 L-3 Baylor Texas Tech Fred Hoiberg
Texas Tech 11 3-13 None 163 139 151 W-2 Nebraska TCU Pat Knight
Oklahoma 12 2-14 None 149 141 141 W-2 Colorado Chaminade Jeff Capel

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Despite losing two wins in the projections, Oklahoma State actually gained a seed due to Iowa State's freefall, while K-State gained two seeds.

Iowa State lost a game it wasn't supposed to and now is projected to lose at home to Missouri, knocking it down from 7-9 to 5-11 in the predictions.

Nebraska also suffered a minor drop. Of course, exchanging seeds this far down is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. I mean, who really cares?

For the time being, I'm upgrading Baylor to bubble status and downgrading Oklahoma State to the NIT.

Both teams are raging dumpster fires, but Baylor annihilated OSU at home, is projected to win in Stillwater and at least has a few Big 12 wins to its name. Oklahoma State has been trending downward ever since the calendar flipped to 2011 and that doesn't appear likely to stop any time soon.

On a side note, K-State really needs to pick up a legitimate win soon. Gonzaga's third consecutive loss left James Madison as our best win, and all five of our "quality" wins are over teams rated 70 or higher in the RPI. Not an NCAA Tournament team in the whole bunch, in other words.

GAMER: Now has Colorado losing at Texas Tech and Missouri winning at Iowa State.

Pomeroy: Now has Baylor winning at Oklahoma State and Missouri winning at Nebraska.

Sagarin: Now has Missouri winning at Iowa State.

 

Self-Evaluation

Who would have thought K-State would be the only home team to win this week?

In a league such as the Big 12, home court advantage usually is king, unless you're facing an elite team such as Kansas or Texas.

So why would anyone in their right mind pick Texas Tech — which still has a losing record — to win any road game, especially against a team that's been as impressive as Iowa State?

Unfortunately, computers can't see the ways in which the Cyclones are wearing down, so none of the predictive systems saw that one coming.

But now that Tech is starting to play up to its preseason expectations more, the Red Raiders probably will garner a little more statistical respect in the near future.

Cumulative pick record: 26-7 (.788)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
01.15
6-0 (1.000)
71 O-State
75 Colorado
57 Baylor
72 I-State
60 Tech
94 K-State
60 Nebraska
63 Kansas
89 Missouri
91 A&M (OT)
46 Oklahoma
66 Texas
01.17-01.19
5-1 (.833)
85 Kansas
65 Baylor
59 K-State
75 Missouri
67 Colorado
79 Nebraska
74 Tech
83 Oklahoma
87 I-State
96 O-State (OT)
60 A&M
81 Texas
01.22
3-3 (.500)
57 O-State
76 Baylor
60 Colorado
67 Oklahoma
56 K-State
64 A&M
74 Texas
63 Kansas
54 I-State
87 Missouri
71 Nebraska
72 Tech
01.24-01.26
3-1 (.750)
61 Baylor
69 K-State
82 Kansas
78 Colorado
92 Tech
83 I-State
61 Texas
46 O-State
01.29
Colorado
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Texas (GPS)
A&M
@ Nebraska (GPS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech (G)
01.31-02.02
Texas (PS)
@ A&M (G)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
I-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.05
K-State
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
Baylor
@ A&M (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.07-02.09
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado (G)
Nebraska
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
02.12
K-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
02.14-02.16
Kansas (GPS)
@ K-State
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
I-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.19
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
A&M (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.21-02.23
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado (PS)
@ Tech (G)
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
02.26
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Missouri (P)
@ K-State (GS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
02.28-03.02
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (PS)
@ Nebraska (G)
Baylor (PS)
@ O-State (G)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
03.05
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ Missouri (G)
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
X
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