BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.22.11


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.21.2011)


 

Clearly, today's Kansas-Texas game will decide who the front-runner for Big 12 championship is, but the loser isn't exactly going to fall out of the race for good.

Colorado's hopes for being a factor took a strong hit with the Buffaloes' loss in Lincoln, however, while Texas A&M still has a chance to get back into the chase with a revenge win over Texas in College Station later this month.

By beating us, Missouri propelled itself into the hopeful also-ran category at 2-2, deadlocked with three other teams.

Meanwhile, we slid into the basement with such honorable company as Iowa State and Oklahoma, and just one floor north of woeful Texas Tech.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-0 NCAA 1 2 1 W-18 Arizona None Bill Self
Texas 2 15-1 NCAA 25 7 9 W-3 Texas A&M USC Rick Barnes
Texas A&M 3 11-5 NCAA 16 30 32 L-1 Washington Boston College Mark Turgeon
Baylor 4 8-8 NIT 102 48 52 L-2 Lipscomb Iowa State Scott Drew
Colorado 5 8-8 Bubble 77 60 59 L-1 Missouri San Francisco Tad Boyle
Nebraska 6 8-8 NIT 89 33 44 W-1 Colorado Davidson Doc Sadler
Missouri 7 8-8 NCAA 30 24 29 W-1 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Oklahoma State 8 7-9 Bubble 36 61 69 W-1 Missouri State Colorado Travis Ford
Iowa State 9 7-9 Bubble 88 36 38 L-1 Baylor Nebraska Fred Hoiberg
Kansas State 10 6-10 Bubble 53 49 43 L-1 Gonzaga Colorado Frank Martin
Texas Tech 11 1-15 None 211 153 170 L-4 Liberty Oklahoma Pat Knight
Oklahoma 12 1-15 None 189 144 154 W-1 Oral Roberts Chaminade Jeff Capel

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Only minor tweaks this week. Thanks to its overtime victory, Oklahoma State hopped Iowa State for the No. 8 seed.

Meanwhile, Texas picked up another projected win at Texas A&M's expense.

As usual, the computer numbers improved for the teams that won and declined for those who lost. None of the changes were strong enough for me to change any postseason projections, however.

Nebraska and Texas clearly picked up their best wins of the season, albeit at home, while Texas Tech suffered its most embarrassing loss yet.

GAMER: Now has Texas losing at Nebraska, but winning at Colorado.

Pomeroy: Now has Iowa State losing at Colorado, Missouri winning at Kansas State, Nebraska winning at Colorado and Texas winning at Texas A&M.

Sagarin: Now has Texas winning at Texas A&M.

 

Self-Evaluation

How close is the thin line between success and failure? Had I used Sagarin's composite rankings (as I did in the prior two seasons) instead of his pure predictor values, BIG 12 OUTLOOK would have projected an Oklahoma State victory over Iowa State by a 2-1 margin and been 6-0 for the week.

But Sagarin's PPV had Iowa State winning by a fraction of a point, which was enough to swing the pendulum in the Cyclones' direction and cost me a correct pick. That said, Iowa State had a three-score lead with two minutes remaining and really should have won.

Instead, they inexplicably left Keiton Page open twice for two crucial 3-pointers that forced overtime. Iowa State is way too thin a team this season to win an overtime game anywhere, much less in one of the most intimidating arenas in the entire conference. Game, set, match.

Cumulative pick record: 20-3 (.870)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
01.15
6-0 (1.000)
71 O-State
75 Colorado
57 Baylor
72 I-State
60 Tech
94 K-State
60 Nebraska
63 Kansas
89 Missouri
91 A&M (OT)
46 Oklahoma
66 Texas
01.17-01.19
5-1 (.833)
85 Kansas
65 Baylor
59 K-State
75 Missouri
67 Colorado
79 Nebraska
74 Tech
83 Oklahoma
87 I-State
96 O-State (OT)
60 A&M
81 Texas
01.22
O-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Colorado (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
K-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Nebraska (GPS)
@ Tech
01.24-01.26
Baylor
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)
01.29
Colorado
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Texas (GPS)
A&M
@ Nebraska (GPS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech (G)
01.31-02.02
Texas (PS)
@ A&M (G)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
I-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.05
K-State
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
Baylor
@ A&M (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.07-02.09
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado (G)
Nebraska
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
02.12
K-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
02.14-02.16
Kansas (GPS)
@ K-State
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
I-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.19
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Missouri
@ I-State (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ Nebraska (G)
A&M (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.21-02.23
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
02.26
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Missouri (P)
@ K-State (GS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
02.28-03.02
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor
@ O-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
03.05
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
Nebraska (P)
@ Colorado (GS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Bring On The Cats

You must be a member of Bring On The Cats to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bring On The Cats. You should read them.

Join Bring On The Cats

You must be a member of Bring On The Cats to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bring On The Cats. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker