BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.17.11


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.16.2011)


 

OK, Colorado no longer is a cute little story.

The Buffaloes are serious players in the Big 12 title discussion, perhaps displacing K-State and Missouri for now due to their signature wins over both teams.

Hell, they might even crack the rankings today. Wouldn't that be something?

But a tough road test now awaits the Buffs, who now must adapt to being the hunted and not the hunter. A similar challenge awaits undefeated Texas A&M when it hits the road for a big showdown in Austin.

Meanwhile, Baylor seeks to lick its wounds and right the ship against Kansas, while Oklahoma and Texas Tech will vie to see who truly is the worst team in the Big 12.

Finally, the two nastiest contests will be played in Columbia and Stillwater.

Two pairs of 1-2 teams will face off in what essentially are elimination games, with the losers falling three games behind the league leaders and effectively out of the championship race for the foreseeable future.

Those will be some physical games to watch!

More after the jump...

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-0 NCAA 1 3 3 W-17 Arizona None Bill Self
Texas 2 14-2 NCAA 38 9 12 W-2 North Carolina USC Rick Barnes
Texas A&M 3 12-4 NCAA 17 22 26 W-13 Temple Boston College Mark Turgeon
Baylor 4 8-8 NIT 99 41 49 L-1 Lipscomb Iowa State Scott Drew
Colorado 5 8-8 Bubble 72 60 59 W-7 Missouri San Francisco Tad Boyle
Nebraska 6 8-8 NIT 105 36 48 L-2 Iowa State Davidson Doc Sadler
Missouri 7 8-8 NCAA 40 28 30 L-1 Vanderbilt Colorado Mike Anderson
Iowa State 8 8-8 Bubble 84 32 51 W-1 Baylor Nebraska Fred Hoiberg
Oklahoma State 9 6-10 Bubble 43 64 70 L-2 Missouri State Colorado Travis Ford
Kansas State 10 6-10 Bubble 49 40 40 W-1 Gonzaga Colorado Frank Martin
Texas Tech 11 1-15 None 206 140 169 L-3 Liberty TCU Pat Knight
Oklahoma 12 1-15 None 193 144 156 L-3 Texas Southern Chaminade Jeff Capel

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Very little has changed from Saturday's predictions (presented in an entry which, by the way, has been updated fully since it was posted), with the only seed change being a swap due solely to the Iowa State-Oklahoma State flip I will discuss in more depth a little further down the page.

Due the outcome in Ames, I'm downgrading Baylor back to NIT status (and I plan to keep the Bears there until they net at least one quality win) and upgrading Iowa State to bubble status. Seems reasonable, given what happened.

As you will see below, Oklahoma State's computer popularity is sliding like a rock, but it isn't really reflected in this projected seed order because there just isn't any further for them to fall. As long as they're projected in a tie with us, they have the tiebreaker, and there's no way they can finish as God-awful as Oklahoma and Texas Tech will.

GAMER: Now has Texas losing at Colorado, but winning at Baylor and Nebraska.

Pomeroy: Now has Baylor losing at Oklahoma State, and Iowa State winning at Colorado and Oklahoma State.

Sagarin: Now has Iowa State winning at Oklahoma State.

 

Self-Evaluation

Finally nailed that most rare of achievements: The perfect day. It only happened a few times last year and I'm always pleased when it does. That puts me just a hair shy of 90-percent accuracy after only three rounds of games.

What's really rare is when all the home teams win, though. I know several of the games were gimmes, but Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma State sure did their best to make it interesting, didn't they?

For the most part, OUTLOOK likes the home teams again this week, with two major exceptions. Obviously, the model favors Kansas in every game it plays, even though I think Baylor has a better chance against the Jayhawks than some might expect after the disaster in Ames.

But the more curious flip came today when two of the three models changed their prediction to Iowa State winning in Stillwater. Clearly, that win over Baylor helped sway them, but I still think OSU is damn hard to beat at home and I fully expect that prediction to blemish my record. We shall see.

The crazy thing is that the other four road teams all are capable of winning. It would not shock me to see Texas A&M win in Austin, Colorado easily could be considered the favorite in Lincoln given what the Buffs have done recently and Texas Tech at Oklahoma is a virtual coin flip.

That leaves the Cats in Columbia, a place they haven't won since Bob Huggins was roaming the sidelines in purple.

Although you have to go with Missouri until K-State displays consistency, it certainly wouldn't shock me if Mizzou lost less than 48 hours after a tough, overtime road loss, even as K-State coasted to an easy home win.

Cumulative pick record: 15-2 (.882)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.08
4-1 (.800)
76 Missouri
89 Colorado
62 K-State
76 O-State
62 I-State
63 Nebraska
69 A&M
51 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
59 Tech
01.11-01.12
5-1 (.833)
83 Texas
52 Tech
61 Oklahoma
74 Baylor
84 Kansas
79 I-State
74 Colorado
66 K-State
69 Nebraska
77 Missouri
48 O-State
71 A&M
01.15
6-0 (1.000)
71 O-State
75 Colorado
57 Baylor
72 I-State
60 Tech
94 K-State
60 Nebraska
63 Kansas
89 Missouri
91 A&M (OT)
46 Oklahoma
66 Texas
01.17-01.19
Kansas (GPS)
@ Baylor
K-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
I-State (PS)
@ O-State (G)
A&M
@ Texas (GPS)
01.22
O-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Colorado (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
K-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Texas
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Nebraska (GPS)
@ Tech
01.24-01.26
Baylor
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Colorado
Tech
@ I-State (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ O-State (G)
01.29
Colorado
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ I-State (GPS)
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Texas (GPS)
A&M
@ Nebraska (GPS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech (G)
01.31-02.02
Texas
@ A&M (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
I-State (P)
@ Colorado (GS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Missouri (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.05
K-State
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
Baylor
@ A&M (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
02.07-02.09
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado (G)
Nebraska
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
02.12
K-State
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
02.14-02.16
Kansas (GPS)
@ K-State
Tech
@ Missouri (GPS)
I-State
@ A&M (GPS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.19
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Missouri
@ I-State (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ K-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
A&M (PS)
@ O-State (G)
02.21-02.23
O-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado (GPS)
@ Tech
Baylor
@ Missouri (GPS)
K-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
02.26
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Texas (PS)
@ Colorado (G)
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
02.28-03.02
K-State
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor
@ O-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Kansas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
03.05
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
O-State (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
X
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