BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.06.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 3.5.2010)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#2 Kansas Jayhawks 14 1 28 2
#5 Kansas State Wildcats 11 4 24 5
#21 Baylor Bears 10 5 23 6
Missouri Tigers 10 5 22 8
#23 Texas A&M Aggies 10 5 21 8
Texas Longhorns 9 6 23 7
Oklahoma State Cowboys 8 7 20 9
Colorado Buffaloes 5 10 14 15
Texas Tech Red Raiders 4 11 16 13
Oklahoma Sooners 4 11 13 16
Iowa State Cyclones 3 12 14 16
Nebraska Cornhuskers 2 13 14 16

 

Well, the finality of it all is on full display above: This year, there is a wide gulf between first and second, as well as between seventh and eighth.

The following seeds are locked: No. 1 Kansas, No. 7 Oklahoma State, No. 11 Iowa State and No. 12 Nebraska.

Everything else still is in play today, which should make for an absolutely stellar finish to the Big 12 regular season.

Games on.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 15-1 NCAA 1 2 1 W-1 Kansas State (x2) Oklahoma State Bill Self
Kansas State 2 12-4 NCAA 5 10 5 L-1 Baylor Ole Miss Frank Martin
Baylor 3 11-5 NCAA 10 14 11 W-3 Texas A&M Colorado Scott Drew
Texas A&M 4 11-5 NCAA 11 22 19 W-2 Baylor Washington Mark Turgeon
Missouri 5 10-6 NCAA 32 12 15 W-1 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas 6 9-7 NCAA 25 13 10 W-1 Pittsburgh Oklahoma Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 7 9-7 NCAA 27 45 34 L-1 Kansas Oklahoma Travis Ford
Colorado 8 6-10 None 111 86 95 W-2 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Texas Tech 9 4-12 NIT 64 88 71 L-6 Oklahoma State Nebraska Pat Knight
Oklahoma 10 4-12 None 104 90 96 L-7 Texas San Diego Jeff Capel
Iowa State 11 3-13 None 140 80 84 L-2 Saint Louis Colorado Greg McDermott
Nebraska 12 2-14 None 157 97 101 L-1 Texas Tech Iowa State (x2) Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Damn, KenPom sort of overreacted to our loss Wednesday, didn't he?

Baylor is on a tear of late. If you just look at the computer numbers, the Bears look like they could be climbing into NCAA 3-seed territory. But one must judge the whole resume, and bad losses to Alabama and Colorado probably will keep Baylor down on the 4-line.

Similarly, Texas A&M just keeps improving its stock. The Aggies are a 6 seed right now, but with a win or two in Kansas City, I easily could see them being a 5.

Oklahoma State didn't do itself any favors, however. Their letdown in College Station means the Cowboys better beat Nebraska and likely Oklahoma in order to stay on the right side of the bubble.

Mad props to Colorado. I've been pumping the Buffaloes on here for at least a week, but even I didn't see them snapping their ugly road losing streak this season. With a home game today against Texas Tech, which has lost six in a row, Colorado looks good for a 6-10 finish and a three-game winning streak heading to Sprint Center.

Wow. Pretty impressive, considering the Buffs' last winning streak of any kind came in late December against Cal State Northridge and Yale.

This goes without saying, but I once again must emphasize that Oklahoma, Iowa State and Nebraska are disasters.

The Sooners now have lost seven in a row, and despite a game effort in the first half against Texas on Big Monday, you never really felt like they were going to win. Seven likely will become nine, and Jeff Capel then will have some serious housecleaning to do this off-season.

Meanwhile, Iowa State's RPI has sunk to a truly awful 140. How the hell is a team with two pros this bad? I don't care about the German who quit — on paper, the Cyclones should be where Colorado is.

And then there's Nebraska. Where do I even start? The sub-150 RPI? The worst-in-the-Big 12 Sagarin rating (a dubious honor inherited from Colorado for the first time all season)? Getting swept by Colorado and Iowa State?

Having lost in Lincoln ought to keep Capel and Pat Knight awake at night in a cold sweat for months to come.

GAMER: No change.

Pomeroy: No change.

Sagarin: No change.

 

Self-Evaluation

Next year, I'm going to have to try and turn some of these 5-1 weeks into 6-0 ones. This week was my seventh.

But who in their right mind would have predicted Colorado winning on the road, even against the worst team in the Big 12? Certainly not these three computer systems.

Otherwise, everything went as expected. But today could prove more interesting.

I like Kansas and Texas A&M to win on the road, but I suppose either home team could pull the upset, too.

Meanwhile, Baylor and Colorado should win at home, but I also could see Texas or Texas Tech stealing one on the road.

Kansas State and Oklahoma State ought to roll, though. A loss in either Bramlage or Gallagher-Iba on Senior Night to the worst two Big 12 teams would be very surprising.

Cumulative pick record: 73-17 (.811)

 

A Quick Note on Big 12 Seeding

OK, I know there supposedly is some Big 12 release that came today with all the seeding possibilities, but those dumb gwats must have screwed something up, because it apparently said K-State is assured a bye, and that's not actually true.

So here's the definitive list of possibilities. How do I know it's definitive? Because I calculated every single one of the 64 possibilities myself.

I'm not going to write out what all has to happen for any particular outcome to occur, but individual scenarios are available upon request in the comments section.

Baylor
Best Seed:
No. 2
Worst Seed: No. 6

Colorado
Best Seed:
8th
Worst Seed: 9th

Iowa State has secured a No. 11 seed.

Kansas has secured a No. 1 seed.

Kansas State
Best Seed:
No. 2
Worst Seed: No. 5

Missouri
Best Seed:
No. 2
Worst Seed: No. 5

Nebraska has secured a No. 12 seed.

Oklahoma
Best Seed:
No. 9
Worst Seed: No. 10

Oklahoma State has secured a No. 7 seed.

Texas
Best Seed:
No. 4
Worst Seed: No. 6

Texas A&M
Best Seed:
No. 2
Worst Seed: No. 6

Texas Tech

Best Seed: No. 8
Worst Seed: No. 10

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
65 A&M
88 K-State
90 Texas
83 I-State
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
01.16
4-2 (.667)
70 O-State
83 Baylor
87 K-State
81 Colorado
63 Tech
89 Kansas
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
01.18-01.20
5-0 (1.000)
62 Texas
71 K-State
62 Oklahoma
65 A&M
78 Colorado
90 O-State
71 I-State
78 Tech
75 Baylor
81 Kansas
01.23
4-1 (.800)
63 Colorado
67 A&M
84 Kansas
61 I-State
73 O-State
69 K-State
53 Nebraska
70 Missouri
65 Oklahoma
75 Tech
01.25-01.27
5-1 (.833)
65 Missouri
84 Kansas
76 K-State
74 Baylor
60 Nebraska
72 Colorado
84 I-State
89 Oklahoma
69 A&M
76 O-State
83 Tech
95 Texas
01.30
5-1 (.833)
63 Colorado
64 I-State
81 Kansas
79 K-State (OT)
80 O-State
95 Missouri
46 Oklahoma
63 Nebraska
70 Tech
85 A&M
80 Baylor
77 Texas (OT)
02.01-02.03
4-1 (.800)
72 Texas
60 O-State
76 K-State
57 Nebraska
72 Kansas
66 Colorado (OT)
63 I-State
84 Baylor
77 A&M
74 Missouri
02.06
4-2 (.667)
84 Missouri
66 Colorado
79 K-State
75 I-State
64 Nebraska
75 Kansas
71 Texas
80 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
78 A&M
74 O-State
81 Tech
02.08-02.10
3-1 (.750)
80 Kansas
68 Texas
72 Tech
71 Oklahoma
56 I-State
65 Missouri
55 Baylor
53 Nebraska
02.13
5-1 (.833)
51 Colorado
68 K-State
59 I-State
73 Kansas
62 Missouri
64 Baylor
51 Nebraska
91 Texas
76 Oklahoma
97 O-State
67 A&M
65 Tech
02.15-02.17
5-1 (.833)
59 Kansas
54 A&M
70 Tech
88 Baylor
67 Oklahoma
77 Colorado
69 O-State
64 I-State
87 Nebraska
91 K-State
77 Texas
82 Missouri
02.20
5-1 (.833)
60 A&M
56 I-State
83 K-State
68 Oklahoma
74 Colorado
94 Kansas
74 Missouri
59 Nebraska
75 Baylor
82 O-State
71 Texas
67 Tech
02.22-02.24
6-0 (1.000)
68 Oklahoma
81 Kansas
83 K-State
64 Tech
66 A&M
70 Baylor
74 Nebraska
78 I-State
63 Colorado
92 Missouri
59 O-State
69 Texas
02.27
5-1 (.833)
72 I-State
75 Colorado
53 Missouri
63 K-State
77 Kansas
85 O-State
79 Tech
83 Nebraska (2OT)
70 Baylor
63 Oklahoma
58 Texas
74 A&M
03.01-03.03
5-1 (.833)
76 Oklahoma
87 Texas
69 Missouri
67 I-State (OT)
81 Colorado
68 Nebraska
86 Baylor
68 Tech
65 K-State
82 Kansas
61 O-State
76 A&M
03.06
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Tech
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
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