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BRACKET BLOG: South Region

The slight name change for this feature is a result of my realizing that I unintentionally "borrowed" the name of a fellow SBNation blog. Sorry, Chris.

Now on to important business. Click here to enter the 157th annual BOTC Bracket Challenge. The group name is BOTC: Bring On The Cats and the password is BracketCat.

Then follow the jump for discussion of the South Region, which finally is complete as of three hours ago.

Previous Entries:

Star-divide

The Teams

  1. Duke Blue Devils
  2. Villanova Wildcats
  3. Baylor Bears
  4. Purdue Boilermakers
  5. Texas A&M Aggies
  6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
  7. Richmond Spiders
  8. California Golden Bears
  9. Louisville Cardinals
  10. St. Mary's Gaels
  11. Old Dominion Monarchs
  12. Utah State Aggies
  13. Siena Saints
  14. Sam Houston St. Bearkats
  15. Robert Morris Colonials
  16. Ark.-Pine Bluff Golden Lions

 

The Sites

  • Jacksonville, Fla.
  • New Orleans, La.
  • Providence, R.I.
  • Spokane, Wash.
  • Houston, Texas (Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight)

 

The Breakdown

No. 1 Duke (29-5) vs. No. 16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (18-15)
March 19 | 6:25 p.m. | Jacksonville

Yeah, no love for Winthrop. If you don't win the play-in game, then you weren't part of the real tournament. Sorry.

Contrary to popular belief, Duke did not draw the easiest region. It's just the region most likely to be prone to upsets.

But this game won't be one of them. Despite our sentimental attachment to the road warriors from Pine Bluff, this should be the end of the road for their epic and historical season.

GAMER: Duke 82, UAPB 61
KenPom: Duke 77, UAPB 51
Sagarin: Duke 83, UAPB 58

 

No. 2 Villanova (24-7) vs. No. 15 Robert Morris (23-11)
March 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Providence

Villanova is a hard team to figure out. A month ago, everyone rattled off four names without hesitating when discussing potential No. 1 seeds. Somewhere along the way, 'Nova fell out of the picture and Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse moved on without the Wildcats.

But that good team from earlier in the season didn't just disappear. It merely ran into the difficult part of its schedule in one of the hardest conferences in the nation. This is a team with more returning Final Four experience than any other team in the field, and but for a few games either way, easily could be sitting in Duke's spot and vice versa.

All of which is a short way of saying that Villanova is gonna crush Robert Morris.

GAMER: Villanova 81, Robert Morris 70
KenPom: Villanova 86, Robert Morris 67
Sagarin: Villanova 89, Robert Morris 70

 

UPSET ALERT: No. 3 Baylor (25-7) vs. No. 14 Sam Houston State (25-7)
March 18 | 1:45 p.m. | New Orleans

I love Baylor. Not in the romantic sense, but in the bracketish sense. I was high on Baylor as a sleeper even before the field was unveiled and when I saw the Bears' draw, I giggled. Seriously.

A likely second-round matchup with Notre Dame, a team that lost to Loyola Marymount? Oh, sure, everyone's in love with the Fighting Irish now thanks to their little winning streak, but I think that's a team with which Scott Drew gladly will take his chances.

Then you could get Villanova, a team that stumbled down the stretch, and Duke, the weakest No. 1 seed? Uh, yeah, where do I sign up?

Baylor will bother those teams with its length, big-time. Duke is big, but not too athletic, and 'Nova has almost no post play. The Bears are a team built for tournament play, as they showed last season in the Big 12 Tournament and the NIT. And they'll have a virtual home court in Houston. What was the committee thinking in this region?

But first the Bears have to get past Sam Houston State, and therein lies the challenge. Nothing on paper would lead you to suspect Baylor could lose this game, but just like K-State, they're completely new to this level of expectation.

Plus, there's always an upset each year that just comes out of left field. I have a weird gut feeling that this could be it. Remember what happened the last time a No. 3 seed faced the Southland champ? Northwestern State 64, Iowa 63, that's what.

I'm not saying it will happen. I'm just throwing it out there for discussion. By the way, what the hell is a Bearkat?

GAMER: Baylor 74, SHSU 67
KenPom: Baylor 82, SHSU 69
Sagarin: Baylor 79, SHSU 66

 

UPSET ALERT: No. 4 Purdue (27-5) vs. No. 13 Siena (27-6)
March 19 | 1:30 p.m. | Spokane

OK, seriously, this one is too easy, right?

Siena, the team that has advanced to the second round the last two seasons, already having beat a Big Ten team to do so one year, and is woefully under-seeded, versus a Purdue team that without its best player was held in the 40s at home against Michigan State and to 11 points in the first half against Minnesota?

And they're both flying out to freaking Washington?

You can't trust the computer numbers on this one. Purdue was a very good team before Robbie Hummel went down and it was on the fast track for the No. 1 seed that Duke now holds. But not anymore.

Trust your eyes. Sometimes it is that easy.

GAMER: Purdue 66, Siena 61
KenPom: Purdue 71, Siena 65
Sagarin: Purdue 69, Siena 62

 

UPSET ALERT: No. 5 Texas A&M (23-9) vs. No. 12 Utah State (27-7)
March 19 | 3:45 p.m. | Spokane

The Aggie fight is the toughest game to pick in the whole tournament, in my opinion.

It has all the makings of a classic 5-12 upset. Utah State is a very good mid-major and virtually unbeatable at home.

Fortunately for Texas A&M, the game's in Spokane, not Logan. But will aTm have enough to win that far away from home? Other than Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis, there isn't much there to make you go, "Wow."

Yet somehow, the Texas Aggies got to 11-5 in the Big 12. That has to count for something.

Go with your heart on this one. Or flip a coin. It's a toughie.

GAMER: Texas A&M 67, Utah State 66
KenPom: Utah State 63, Texas A&M 62
Sagarin: Texas A&M 67, Utah State 64

 

UPSET ALERT: No. 6 Notre Dame (23-11) vs. No. 11 Old Dominion (26-8)
March 18 | 11:25 a.m. | New Orleans

All of these Notre Dame lovers that crawled out of the woodwork the past few days might want to consider that the Fighting Irish might not even make it out of the first round. In a region full of damn solid mid-majors, Old Dominion might be the best.

After all, the Monarchs waltzed into Georgetown's arena and beat the Hoyas straight-up earlier this season. That is a quality win.

Notre Dame's not a bad team. But neither is ODU. I think I lean toward the underdog on this one.

GAMER: Old Dominion 61, Notre Dame 58
KenPom: Old Dominion 65, Notre Dame 64
Sagarin: Notre Dame 64, Old Dominion 63

 

UPSET ALERT: No. 7 Richmond (26-8) vs. No. 10 Saint Mary's (26-5)
March 18 | 1:50 p.m. | Providence

When the lower-seeded team has a better overall record, is predicted to win by all three computers, seems like it should win based on the "gut" test and, oh, by the way, thrashed Gonzaga, the penultimate underdog program, in its tournament championship, you probably should pick that lower-seeded team.

Which is no disrespect to Richmond. The Spiders are a good A-10 team that beat a very good A-10 team in Xavier.

And they'll probably have the home crowd. But I don't think they have an answer for Omar Samhan.

GAMER: St. Mary's 73, Richmond 70
KenPom: St. Mary's 68, Richmond 67
Sagarin: St. Mary's 85, Richmond 84

 

No. 8 California (23-10) vs. No. 9 Louisville (20-12)
March 19 | 8:45 p.m. | Jacksonville

It's a typical 8-9 match-up. Louisville swept Syracuse, so winning this game would not be an upset. Hell, the Cardinals advancing to beat Duke probably wouldn't be an upset, either.

But Cal is underrated because of how crappy the Pac-10 was. For a while, the Golden Bears competed with KU in Lawrence, and they had a good RPI all year long. Plus, if you're in a crappy league, at least put some distance between it and you, which is precisely what Cal did in the regular season.

As with most other games in this region, go with your gut or your trusty quarter. You probably can't go wrong.

GAMER: Cal 75, Louisville 68
KenPom: Cal 78, Louisville 75
Sagarin: Cal 75, Louisville 74

Poll
Who will win the South Region?
No. 1 Duke
12 votes
No. 2 Villanova
12 votes
No. 3 Baylor
62 votes
No. 4 Purdue
2 votes
No. 5 Texas A&M
2 votes
No. 6 Notre Dame
1 votes
No. 7 Richmond
0 votes
No. 8 Cal
0 votes
No. 9 Louisville
1 votes
No. 10 St. Mary's
4 votes
No. 11 Old Dominion
0 votes
No. 12 Utah State
2 votes
No. 13 Siena
0 votes
No. 14 SHSU
0 votes
No. 15 Robert Morris
0 votes
No. 16 UAPB
4 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 27 comments |

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Comments

Display:

Uh-oh

We have two outright disagreements this time, and a “my coin was tails, not heads” as well.

I think Duke will be dispatching Louisville, not Cal; I think Richmond gets past SMC before falling to ‘Nova. And not only do I think Baylor survives the first round, they’ll also survive Old Dominion. And ’Nova.

And Duke. That’s right, I have the Bears playing in April. (I actually have them facing KSU for the title in my brackets, but that’s because I refuse to countenance the idea of having my bracket depend on us losing to KU. I mean, something like that might well be deemed treasonous. I’d rather lose moneyface than be sensible.)

As for the 4-5 sections, you already know I’ve got Siena pegged for the first round, and my coin landed on A&M as well. I think A&M gets past the Saints, though, before succumbing to the mystique and aura of the Blue Devils.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Mar 17, 2010 1:44 AM CDT reply actions  

Note the poll

Baylor is a very popular pick. I find it hard to argue with the group logic. They’re a match-up nightmare for everyone in that bracket.

by BracketCat on Mar 17, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Just filled out my bracket

and I’m still not comfortable with the West and South brackets. I’d prefer to just skip them all-together.

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Mar 17, 2010 9:01 AM CDT reply actions  

The 5/12 and 4/13 matchups in the South are the hardest

picks in the whole tourney. Seriously, all four teams have a legit shot at making the Sweet 16. I’m picking A&M, but just because I’m being a Big 12 homer. Utah St, Purdue, or Sienna could just as easily be there.

by GCat on Mar 17, 2010 9:44 AM CDT reply actions  

Yup

And they’re all the way out in Spokane. That kind of travel can produce crazy effects.

by BracketCat on Mar 17, 2010 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

The K-State Collegian Sports blog has another NCAA tournament challenge:

Link

Pick 8 teams…points based on seeding & wins

Hail to the Purple, Hail to the White
Wildcat in spirit, Wildcat in fight
Hail Alma Mater from sea to sea
Onward forever, Hail Victory!

by MadCat on Mar 17, 2010 12:00 PM CDT reply actions  

If you guys want, I can score the thing differently.

I’m a fan of the “seed +1” model, where you get 14 points if Siena wins, 13 points if Utah State wins, etc. It rewards those who dare to pick upsets, obviously.

Maybe I’ll do a poll on it later and see what everyone wants.

by BracketCat on Mar 17, 2010 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think that would change my bracket some. :D

Hail to the Purple, Hail to the White
Wildcat in spirit, Wildcat in fight
Hail Alma Mater from sea to sea
Onward forever, Hail Victory!

by MadCat on Mar 17, 2010 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

I would _certainly_ need to alter

my bracket if we are not using the 32 pts total per round scoring style…

:-o

--VegasCat07

by VegasCat07 on Mar 17, 2010 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

I threw in another bracket for Barack Obama...

It’s “Mr. President”…you can throw it out or whatever.

Hail to the Purple, Hail to the White
Wildcat in spirit, Wildcat in fight
Hail Alma Mater from sea to sea
Onward forever, Hail Victory!

by MadCat on Mar 17, 2010 1:29 PM CDT reply actions  

Excellent

I think we all want to see how his Final Four prediction does.

I’ll probably be doing three myself, but I’ll only score one of them. It will be marked that way, of course.

by BracketCat on Mar 17, 2010 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

I've got three for work

but I used my most logical one for this pool. The other two consist of an upset heavy bracket and a straight chalk bracket. There’s no way I could lose then right?

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Mar 17, 2010 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Out of 9,000,000,000 possibilities

you did cover 2 real common ones, plus your own ideas.

I’m sure you have it cornered now! ;-)

--VegasCat07

by VegasCat07 on Mar 17, 2010 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Actually....

There’s ~16,000,000,000,000,000,000 ways to fill out a bracket (~32,000,000,000,000,000,000 if you include the play-in game). Just to put that number in perspective, if every single person on Earth filled out 1 billion (1,000,000,000) brackets, and no 2 of those brackets were the same, it would still exhaust less than half of the possibilities.

by grmann on Mar 17, 2010 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think my number is closer if you

ignore the 1v16 and 2v15 games… or maybe just the 1v16 games.

W0-L100 is good enough for me to qualify as not really a serious bracket if you have a 16 over a 1. :-)

--VegasCat07

by VegasCat07 on Mar 17, 2010 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not really,

Even giving you the 1v16 matchups only gets the number of possibilities down to ~1,000,000,000,000,000,000 and assuming all the 2s win puts it at ~650,000,000,000,000,000.

Your number is about right for the possibilities in a 34 game tournament.

by grmann on Mar 17, 2010 9:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Doggonnit, slipped an extra zero in

Assuming all 1 and 2 seeds win their first games gives you 65,000,000,000,000,000 possible brackets.

by grmann on Mar 17, 2010 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

I say we each get to submit 1,000,000,000

different brackets… ready?… GO! ;-)

--VegasCat07

by VegasCat07 on Mar 17, 2010 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's about what I've got

My real one, my upset one and a fantasy one where it’s all Big 12 and Big East teams winning.

by BracketCat on Mar 17, 2010 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

True Believers

Are those voters that went UAPB to win this region…all of us who didn’t vote that way should be ashamed.

And on the 3rd year he rose again...

by EMAWrising on Mar 17, 2010 3:15 PM CDT reply actions  

Heads up

I’ve added the predicted scores for Duke-UAPB, which just came out today.

by BracketCat on Mar 17, 2010 6:32 PM CDT reply actions  

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