BRACKET BLOG: Midwest Region
As you might have noticed, I went back and added predictions for all games in the East Region, courtesy of RealTimeRPI, Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. I'll continue doing that for each region, of course.
Follow the jump for discussion of the Midwest Region, a.k.a. the Bracket of Death.
Previous Entry:
The Teams
- Kansas Jayhawks
- Ohio St. Buckeyes
- Georgetown Hoyas
- Maryland Terrapins
- Michigan St. Spartans
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Oklahoma St. Cowboys
- UNLV Runnin' Rebels
- Northern Iowa Panthers
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
- San Diego St. Aztecs
- New Mexico St. Aggies
- Houston Cougars
- Ohio Bobcats
- UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
- Lehigh Mountain Hawks
The Sites
- Milwaukee, Wis.
- Oklahoma City, Okla.
- Providence, R.I.
- Spokane, Wash.
- St. Louis, Mo. (Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight)
The Breakdown
No. 1 Kansas (32-2) vs. No. 16 Lehigh (22-10)
March 18 | 8:30 p.m. | Oklahoma City
Why the Death Bracket, you might ask? Well, surely you've heard the wailing and gnashing of teeth out of Lawrence by now. If not, here's a brief recap. And if that's not salty enough for you, this should do it.
Yes, the committee did Kansas no favors with this (rock) chalky field. Despite being the No. 1 overall seed, a reward that theoretically should carry with it the worst No. 2, 4 and 6 seeds in the tournament, Kansas instead drew:
- No. 2 seed Ohio State, a Big Ten co-champion that many projected as a potential No. 1 seed, with the likely National Player of the Year, Evan Turner;
- No. 3 Georgetown, a team that beat Duke, Syracuse and Villanova, and has the talent to reach a Final Four;
- No. 4 Maryland, the ACC co-champion, featuring ACC Player of the Year Greivis Vasquez;
- No. 5 Michigan State, another Big Ten co-champion that beat the Jayhawks twice last season;
- No. 6 Tennessee and No. 7 Oklahoma State, teams that already beat the Jayhawks this season.
Granted, KU only has to face two of those teams, but if it makes the Final Four, it definitely will have earned it.
In the Hawk fight, though, Lehigh should present no trouble.
GAMER: Kansas 80, Lehigh 62
KenPom: Kansas 90, Lehigh 63
Sagarin: Kansas 86, Lehigh 59
No. 2 Ohio State (27-7) vs. No. 15 UCSB (20-9)
March 19 | 8:35 p.m. | Milwaukee
Well, I don't know too much about UCSB, a team Joe Lunardi projected us to play for the longest time.
But I do know that Ohio State beat Minnesota by 30 just the other day, then Minnesota was invited to the tournament.
I know that Evan Turner is a freakishly good player. And I know that Thad Matta has a pretty good history in this event, with multiple teams.
Don't look for a 15-over-2 upset here. (Heck, don't look for one anywhere — it's pretty darn rare.)
GAMER: Ohio State 72, UCSB 61
KenPom: Ohio State 76, UCSB 58
Sagarin: Ohio State 78, UCSB 65
No. 3 Georgetown (23-10) vs. No. 14 Ohio (21-14)
March 18 | 6:25 p.m. | Providence
Ohio is the first of three consecutive teams that won their conference tournaments in upset fashion and now will face top-seeded teams in the first round.
Don't look for the Cinderella story to continue in this game. Georgetown came within a hair's breadth of winning the Big East Tournament and is much better than its record.
GAMER: Georgetown 70, Ohio 61
KenPom: Georgetown 78, Ohio 66
Sagarin: Georgetown 79, Ohio 66
No. 4 Maryland (23-8) vs. No. 13 Houston (19-15)
March 19 | 2:50 p.m. | Jacksonville
Maryland beat Duke and most of the other ACC teams. Houston did approximately nothing until its conference tournament.
Nothing to see here. Move along.
GAMER: Maryland 78, Houston 65
KenPom: Maryland 90, Houston 76
Sagarin: Maryland 88, Houston 77
No. 5 Michigan State (24-8) vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (22-11)
March 19 | 6:20 p.m. | Spokane
Michigan State slid a bit toward the end of the season, but don't be fooled — this still is a very good team.
Furthermore, Tom Izzo's teams always play their best basketball in the NCAA Tournament and the Spartans will be a tough out for anybody, because of their hard-nosed defense.
Meanwhile, New Mexico State probably is a notch better than Houston or Ohio, but that isn't saying too much. When 12s upset 5s, it's usually because they are under-seeded. But 12s that win their conference tournaments in upsets typically are over-seeded, and the Aggies appear to be a perfect example of that.
No upset alerts for the top five seeds? Now you know why this is the Bracket of Death region.
GAMER: Michigan State 68, NMSU 63
KenPom: Michigan State 83, NMSU 71
Sagarin: Michigan State 76, NMSU 67
UPSET ALERT: No. 6 Tennessee (25-8) vs. No. 11 San Diego State (25-8)
March 18 | 8:45 p.m. | Providence
Tennessee and San Diego State have identical records, and while a casual observer might dismiss that by saying that Tennessee played in a better conference, I'm not so sure that's the case.
BYU and New Mexico were ranked for almost all of the season, and the Mountain West received four bids — same as the SEC did.
Yes, Tennessee beat Kansas and Kentucky, but both wins came at home. The Big Dance is played away from home, and I'm hard-pressed to point to one really good win the Volunteers had outside of Knoxville.
Meanwhile, San Diego State spent last week winning a "neutral" tournament against UNLV, on UNLV's home floor, in order to secure a bid that might not otherwise have come. That "win or you're done" attitude continues this week, and it should serve the Aztecs well.
Plus, Steve Fisher has done this before. Anyone remember the Fab Five?
GAMER: Tennessee 69, SDSU 66
KenPom: Tennessee 65, SDSU 64
Sagarin: Tennessee 67, SDSU 64
UPSET ALERT: No. 7 Oklahoma State (22-10) vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech (22-12)
March 19 | 6:15 p.m. | Milwaukee
Oklahoma State appears to be a popular pick for a first-round loss and many people are saying Georgia Tech is a bad match-up for the Cowboys because of how physical the Yellow Jackets' interior is.
Even the three computer systems favor Georgia Tech by a slight margin.
Personally, I don't see it. Marshall Moses and Matt Pilgrim are plenty physical, and there is no way Georgia Tech has a player who can outscore Big 12 Player of the Year James Anderson.
Georgia Tech was an inconsistent program in an inconsistent league, and that doesn't just go away overnight.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State beat the top four seeds in its league and has the ability to score with any team in the field. I'm a big believer that the Big 12 is going to win most of its first-round games, and this is the perfect example of what I'm talking about.
GAMER: Georgia Tech 69, Oklahoma State 65
KenPom: Georgia Tech 72, Oklahoma State 69
Sagarin: Georgia Tech 65, Oklahoma State 64
UPSET ALERT: No. 8 UNLV (25-8) vs. No. 9 Northern Iowa (28-4)
March 18 | 6:10 p.m. | Oklahoma City
I know I said I don't consider 9-over-8 to be an upset, but if a one-bid league champion knocks off a multi-bid conference's at-large team, it probably qualifies.
That's true even if the former team is as good as UNI and the latter team is as inconsistent as UNLV.
This basically is a 50-50 pick 'em game. Don't sweat it too much — the winner ain't getting past KU.
GAMER: UNI 63, UNLV 56
KenPom: UNI 58, UNLV 57
Sagarin: UNI 55, UNLV 54
0 recs |
11 comments
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Comments
My thougth process.
Two words – Tom. Izzo.
One stat – 32-2.
I see KU and MSU meeting in the Sweet 16 and I am on-board the ‘winner-of-that-1-versus-5 matchup wins this Region’ train. Going by my usual rule, I filled out my first bracket by gut feeling/personal knowledge (albeit not vast) of this year’s NCAA season. This resulted in a KU over MSU 3rd round game. The rule? Always take Tom Izzo no-less-than 1 game farther than you think. In this case, I took them a couple farther… they lost at least 1 game – I would suggest up to 3 – due to Kalin Lucas being hurt. He’s back at full strength right now.
SDSU and Houston in the 1st round, MSU to win the region… otherwise my bracket has chalk – of the favored-team variety. :-P
--VegasCat07
We're in agreement across the board here.
The first round, save the 6-11 and 8-9 matches, shouldn’t cause any blips at all. 1-2-3 should have no trouble moving on to weekend two; Maryland-MSU I’m wobbly about, but I don’t think either of them will be getting past KU.
There’s going to be one hell of a four-team tournament in St. Louis, though. And Chickenhawks vs. either Georgetown or Ohio State will be a good one.
This space for rent.
Do we have an ESPN Tournament Challenge Group yet?
Hail to the Purple, Hail to the White
Wildcat in spirit, Wildcat in fight
Hail Alma Mater from sea to sea
Onward forever, Hail Victory!
I think Bracket was going to set one up like last year
Just so I can be one of the top 2 teams for the first three rounds only to fall to the bottom at the end.
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
Well, yeah...
My brackets based on the teams that I like better and/or give K-State a more favorable run never quite pan out.
Hail to the Purple, Hail to the White
Wildcat in spirit, Wildcat in fight
Hail Alma Mater from sea to sea
Onward forever, Hail Victory!
I'm sure my all Big 12 Final Four is probably not going to do well either.
Hail to the Purple, Hail to the White
Wildcat in spirit, Wildcat in fight
Hail Alma Mater from sea to sea
Onward forever, Hail Victory!
It's going to be a strange year for brackets
because we’ll have a huge bias towards K-State. I picked Baylor over us in the conference tourney and look where that got me – nowhere.
I think the Michican State +1 rule shouldn’t be used this year. They will not beat KU.
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
4 people picked Lehigh to win the Midwest?
mystman, did someone buy your vote again and you just happened to vote 4 times?
Dammit, this democracy here isn’t working (:
Nope, not this time
I play for keeps in the NCAA’s.
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.











