BRACKET BLOG: East Region
by BracketCat on Mar 15, 2010 12:00 AM CDT
in Men's Basketball
41 comments
More than a year since I joined the site, the Wildcats are back in the NCAA Tournament — which means I finally can introduce a new feature that's been in the back of my mind ever since I first adopted my moniker.
So join me every night at midnight, from now until the first games ("real" games — Dayton doesn't count) tip off Thursday, as I break down a different region each night and offer some insights to consider when making your picks.
Hit the jump for discussion of the East Region.
The Teams
- Kentucky Wildcats
- West Virginia Mountaineers
- New Mexico Lobos
- Wisconsin Badgers
- Temple Owls
- Marquette Golden Eagles
- Clemson Tigers
- Texas Longhorns
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- Missouri Tigers
- Washington Huskies
- Cornell Big Red
- Wofford Terriers
- Montana Grizzlies
- Morgan St. Bears
- East Tennessee St. Buccaneers
The Sites
- Buffalo, N.Y.
- Jacksonville, Fla.
- New Orleans, La.
- San Jose, Calif.
- Syracuse, N.Y. (Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight)
The Breakdown
No. 1 Kentucky (32-2) vs. No. 16 East Tennessee State (20-14)
March 18 | 6:15 p.m. | New Orleans
Congratulations to the Buccaneers for making it this far, but the road ends here.
GAMER: Kentucky 78, ETSU 65
KenPom: Kentucky 77, ETSU 60
Sagarin: Kentucky 72, ETSU 53
No. 2 West Virginia (27-6) vs. No. 15 Morgan State (27-9)
March 19 | 11:15 a.m. | Buffalo
Same goes for the Golden Bears.
How the heck did West Virginia, which in my estimation should have been a No. 1 seed, end up in the same region as the second-best team in the country? Some reward for winning the Big East Tournament, huh?
Should both teams make it that far, it will be an interesting match-up. Bob Huggins recruited Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins while at K-State, and watching Da'Sean Butler try to out-duel John Wall will be fun.
GAMER: West Virginia 72, Morgan State 61
KenPom: West Virginia 78, Morgan State 61
Sagarin: West Virginia 71, Morgan State 54
No. 3 New Mexico (29-4) vs. No. 14 Montana (22-9)
March 18 | 8:40 p.m. | San Jose
New Mexico could have been a No. 2 seed, in my opinion, so this is another tough draw for Kentucky.
The Lobos will compete with Washington for who can bring the largest fan base to San Jose, but I expect the former to advance out of the pod to the Sweet Sixteen.
GAMER: New Mexico 74, Montana 68
KenPom: New Mexico 72, Montana 65
Sagarin: New Mexico 76, Montana 67
UPSET ALERT: No. 4 Wisconsin (23-8) vs. No. 13 Wofford (26-8)
March 19 | 1:50 p.m. | Jacksonville
Call it a gut feeling, but I'm just not that impressed by Wisconsin this season. Maybe that sounds crazy, given how easily the Badgers dispatched us two years ago. But this is not one of Bo Ryan's better teams, and away from home, they really haven't done much.
I'll admit that I don't know too much about Wofford, but it seems like those usually are the most dangerous of the teams seeded between 13 and 15. The Terriers were competitive in road losses to Illinois and Michigan State, and that experience should serve them well in the opening round. They also beat Georgia and South Carolina.
GAMER: Wisconsin 64, Wofford 56
KenPom: Wisconsin 63, Wofford 52
Sagarin: Wisconsin 68, Wofford 59
UPSET ALERT: No. 5 Temple (29-5) vs. No. 12 Cornell (27-4)
March 19 | 11:30 a.m. | Jacksonville
A preface: Temple deserved a No. 4 seed more than Wisconsin did.
That said, I honestly think Cornell will win this game. Now, I'm not going to pull a Jay Bilas and predict the Big Red all the way to the Elite Eight, but two scores stand out in my mind when evaluating this match-up:
Kansas 84, Temple 52. Kansas 71, Cornell 66.
The former game was at Temple; the latter, in Allen Fieldhouse. Sounds like the perfect recipe for a 5-12 upset to me.
GAMER: Temple 61, Cornell 60
KenPom: Temple 63, Cornell 58
Sagarin: Temple 67, Cornell 63
UPSET ALERT: No. 6 Marquette (22-11) vs. No. 11 Washington (24-9)
March 18 | 6:20 p.m. | San Jose
Notice a theme here? Yes, there appear to be a few over-seeded/under-seeded teams in this particular region.
Marquette might be the most schizophrenic team in the country. Everyone felt sorry for the Golden Eagles back in January, when they were losing multiple games by one-possession margins, including two in a week to West Virginia.
Then they finally figured out how to win those close games and subsequently ripped off a nice little winning streak.
But this is one of the less impressive-looking Big East teams I've seen in a while, and it's a far cry from the guard-loaded teams that did so much damage in the tournament the last few years. They could be prone to an upset.
Meanwhile, Washington's record isn't particularly impressive and its league sure as hell isn't, but don't sleep on the Huskies. They will have a home crowd, they're on a nice roll after winning the Pac-10 Tournament, and they have one of the speediest and most explosive point guards in the nation, Isaiah Thomas.
GAMER: Marquette 68, Washington 64
KenPom: Marquette 73, Washington 72
Sagarin: Marquette 66, Washington 64
UPSET ALERT: No. 7 Clemson (21-10) vs. No. 10 Missouri (22-10)
March 19 | 1:35 p.m. | Buffalo
The committee did Missouri no favors. The Tigers have to fly to New York, where they will meet a clone of themselves in a genuine Tiger fight. Clemson is to the ACC as Mizzou is to the Big 12 — that annoying team that presses the hell out of you and is a pain in the ass to prepare for.
And if Missouri survives that (and I think it will — I've never been that impressed with Oliver Purnell's squads), it gets to face Bob Huggins and the West Virginia Mountaineers. Huggs not only is familiar with Mike Anderson's system from his one year at K-State, but also from the years when the two dueled at Cincinnati and UAB. Bad match-up.
GAMER: Clemson 68, Missouri 63
KenPom: Clemson 70, Missouri 69
Sagarin: Missouri 66, Clemson 65
No. 8 Texas (24-9) vs. No. 9 Wake Forest (19-10)
March 18 | 8:35 p.m. | New Orleans
No two teams are entering the tournament with less momentum than Texas and Wake Forest. The Longhorns have lost nine of their last 16 games, while the Demon Deacons have lost five of their last six. Yuck.
So why no upset alert, you might ask? Well, first, I don't consider a No. 9 seed beating an 8 to be an upset. And second, I actually think Texas might win this game. I'm not sure Wake Forest is that much better than Iowa State or Oklahoma State, and the Longhorns were able to handle both of those teams in the last month.
Besides, Texas simply has too much talent not to pull at least one NCAA win out of you-know-where. But with a likely date against Kentucky looming in the second round, I'd be shocked if Rick Barnes' bunch advanced to the second weekend.
GAMER: Texas 76, Wake Forest 69
KenPom: Texas 77, Wake Forest 72
Sagarin: Texas 78, Wake Forest 74
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Keep up the good work
As my grandfather the fruit seller used to say, “what you lose in the grapefruit and peaches, you make up for with the apples and bananas.” Whatever that means…anyway I appreciate the insight, b/c anything that can serve as an edge in my office’s tournament pool is always nice.
by williewildcrack on Mar 15, 2010 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Liked it.
We’re doing a very similar thing over at RCT.
I disagree 100% on New Mexico but other than that, good stuff.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
eh, either way is acceptable.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Anyone up for
a BOTC tournament challenge on ESPN.com?
I like it
You know more bball than I do, so I can’t comment on your analysis of the games. However, I like the set up. Will you have time to do these between the first and second day for each region? Maybe just the important or interesting matchups I guess.
I would disagree about the Tuesday game
not counting. It’s UAPB!!! C’mon now! First time in the dance and a chance – ‘real’ chance – to win a game?!?? I like that.
I have UK coming out of this bracket (the Bluegrass state university version) myself, and like you BC have UNM going places. A very awkward region of the bracket in terms of perceived mis-seedings and up-and-down teams!
--VegasCat07
The Cornell seeding
is one of the more inexplicable things in this bracket. (No, Syracuse being sent West and Illinois left at home were not, no matter how loudly the talking heads at CBS might cry about it. Seriously… 19-14 Illinois? CBS wasted about 10 minutes of airtime moaning about them being left out while UTEP got in? Hell, 10 days ago everyone and I mean everyone had UTEP as an at-large lock, and the only bad thing they’ve done since then was to lose their conference tournament final! — which, of course, was sort of required for them to be an at-large anyway, right?)
No, the Cornell seeding was bad. But having said that, I’d rather have seen Cornell get a 12 than a 9 (and a possible second-round date with #1). If there are two teams in the bottom third of the entire bracket capable of dealing major destruction, they’re Cornell and Siena.
It’s a shame ETSU ended up with a 16; not undeserved, as their regular season was not impressive at all, but still a shame. It’s ETSU’s second trip in a row, and their third post-season appearance in the five years since they dropped football, got evicted from the SoCon for their temerity in doing so, and landed in the ASun. Maybe they can at least do to Kentucky what their conference-mates Belmont did to Duke.
I’ll be interested to see how well Morgan State does against Morgantown State; I doubt there’s anyone unaware of this, but the DC HBCU is now the coaching home of Todd Bozeman, who did a pretty good job in Berkley once upon a time. Having spent 12 years living outside of DC, I probably had more exposure to the madness of the MEAC than most; it’s a good league that just over-schedules itself in December. But let’s not forget that the league has contributed its share of high-seed upsets. (Hampton, anyone?) Still, I think WVU will be too much for them.
New Mexico: the only mid-major to grab a Sweet Sixteen seed. More on this topic when we get to the South. Montana has no chance here.
I agree with you on Wisconsin in the abstract, but they’re really at no risk in the first round. Wofford is, in terms of recent SoCon champions, a tad underwhelming, and should pose no major threat to Bucky. But the Badgers most likely will not survive the weekend, because I don’t think they can get past Temple OR Cornell.
I’m not particularly impressed with Washington (and putting together a run to survive this year’s Pac-10 tournament isn’t something one really wants to highlight on one’s resume, either). That said, your observations on Marquette are on point, and if there’s one team the Huskies could have begged to get matched up with… well, there it is. I doubt either team can survive the Lobos.
I have absolutely nothing to add to your Tiger Tiger comments. Two union-shop teams slugging it out. I think both are capable of giving the Mounties a game, but if WVU keeps playing like it has of late, they’ll survive it.
Which brings us to Texas. What would we say if Texas had started 7-9 and then finished with a 17-game winning streak? As much as we’ve made light of the Longhorn’s tumble into irrelevance since we stuck it to them, the fact remains that this is a talented team. And contrary to the reigning opinion, I actually like Rick Barnes - have ever since he was one of the featured protagonists (in his rookie year at George Mason) in John Feinstein’s Season on the Inside, which was a pretty good book if you ignore the fact that it ends with Danny F’ing Manning cutting down the nets in Kansas City. (It’s not a great tool for reliving the good part of the ’87’88 campaign, though, as Feinstein all but ignores the Cats.) Anyway, back to point: I think anyone who fails to at least consider that Texas IS perfectly capable of sending Kentucky home should they meet is doing themselves and their prognostications a grave disservice.
I don’t think it will happen — hell, I’m not altogether sure Texas will get past Wake — but if Barnes gets their heads screwed back on, Texas could absolutely make a red shambles of a lot of East brackets on Yahoo. If the final four in the East ends up being West Virginia, New Mexico, Cornell, and Texas… I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised. I’m not calling it, so if it happens I don’t want too much credit, but if it does… at least remember I proposed it as a specific and viable possibility. ;)
My actual picks: the top three get through, along with Cornell. Kentucky over New Mexico in the regional final.
This space for rent.
Syracuse had to be sent West
KU was a lock for the Midwest and Cuse couldn’t be in the East. Once Duke stayed on the 1 line, there was no way they weren’t going to be in the South because of the crowds they bring.
Once the Pac-10 nose-dived, someone always was going to get screwed and sent out west.
Plus, it's not like sending them "West" is a total screw job.
Their first round is still in Buffalo, correct?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Exactly.
CBS was whining about it, though, which struck me as completely nonsensical.
This space for rent.
I see your point on Texas
And I considered that, but man, that team looked absolutely BEATEN in Kansas City.
I think they just want the season to end so they can get to the NBA. Barnes looked he didn’t care anymore, either.
It’s gonna take heart to beat Kentucky (did you see how they celebrated just making overtime?), and Texas appears to have no heart left.
I think they actually celebrated
because they thought the game was over. That has to be it right? Nobody does that just for a tie.
Well, yeah if they had won the last 17 in a row a lot of people probably would probably feel a lot different about Texas.
But when the schedule got tougher, they fell apart. After a quick glance at their schedule, I only 4 saw tournament teams they’ve beat this year. Part of their early hype was due to wins over Michigan State and North Carolina. Both teams turned out to be not as good as everyone thought they were early in the year, especially Carolina.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Yeah, and their best RPI win is freaking Pittsburgh
How did Texas do against the good teams in the Big 12?
Lost 3 of 3 to Baylor, lost 1 of 2 and should have lost 2 of 3 to Texas A&M, lost to Kansas State, got drilled at home by KU, and lost to Mizzou (which is seeded lower).
Um, yeah, they’re not beating Kentucky.
Like I said
I don’t think it will happen. But if they wake the hell up, Kentucky could be in for a shock.
This space for rent.
There's No Way
Cornell beats Temple. I’m definitely not seeing what all of you pundits are seeing.
Cornell: SOS 205. RPI 46 @.584. League – IVY (that should be enough)
Temple: SOS 50. RPI 8 @.554. League – A10 (not that the A10 shines all that incredibly bright.
Temple did lay a BIG Egg against KU, but overall, that was its only “really bad” loss. Cornell really never beat anyone with any depth or talent that I can find. The only tournament bound team that I see that they beat was Vermont who won’t get past round one.
Temple had some very good wins and played other strong teams well including Cuse.
I go with Temple.
Temple can't match Cornell's size inside
And is way too reliant on the 3, which will kill you against a good defensive team (like it did against Kansas).
Forget the strength of schedule. At this point, it’s all about match-ups, and Cornell matches up very well with Temple — plus, it probably has a chip on its shoulder about its seed.
It's interesting...
I first found SBN via Royals Review, where we follow a team that doesn’t understand that in baseball you really can tell more with numbers than with your eyeballs, because your eyeballs lie.
Basketball, on the other hand, is a bit different; you can beat teams which are statistically superior to you in every way simply because you have a different sort of personnel than they’ve played previously, and who can succeed against them offensively, prevent them from scoring, or both.
And that’s why Temple — while certainly the favorite — is also ripe for an upset. Because Cornell is the sort of team that will give them fits.
This space for rent.
Hey, all
I’ve gone back and added predictions from GAMER, Pomeroy and Sagarin. Would have done it last night, but ran out of time.
Hopefully, that helps you fill in your brackets a little more easily.
so, according to projections everyone's seeded correctly
at least in the 1st round.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
I'm not afraid to admit it.......
BOTC gives me a hard on. This site and all the work you guys put in is just flat out awesome.
We appreciate the compliment...
…and I’ll take the compliment in the figurative way (I presume) it was intended. Much of the credit has to go to BracketCat, who has done a tremendous job keeping the content rolling out, especially during basketball season.
We'll carry the banner high!
Bring On The Cats
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