BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.01.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.28.2010)

Conf Overall
W L W L
#2 Kansas Jayhawks 13 1 27 2
#5 Kansas State Wildcats 11 3 24 4
#22 Baylor Bears 9 5 22 6
Missouri Tigers 9 5 21 8
#24 Texas A&M Aggies 9 5 20 8
#25 Texas Longhorns 8 6 22 7
Oklahoma State Cowboys 8 6 20 8
Texas Tech Red Raiders 4 10 16 12
Colorado Buffaloes 4 10 13 15
Oklahoma Sooners 4 10 13 15
Iowa State Cyclones 3 11 14 15
Nebraska Cornhuskers 2 12 14 15

 

Nos. 1 and 2 appear set, and the only question now is whether 2 can tie 1 and force the most media attention you'll ever see for a drawing that is not for the Powerball.

The three-way tie for third place and the five-way battle for the last two byes remain the most compelling storylines in the last week of conference play. Missouri's probably at a disadvantage, since the Tigers have to play the top-ranked team in the nation during their final stretch.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M proved what we all knew from the game back in Austin when it walloped the Longhorns in College Station. Hard as it might be to divorce ourselves from the preseason hype and prognostications, it's indisputably clear now:

Texas is exactly where it belongs. It's the sixth-best team in the best or second-best conference.

The T-sips lost to every single team ahead of them in the standings, whether in Austin or on the road. And they swept the team immediately behind them. DeLoss Dodds, welcome to the middle of the pack. Still think Rick Barnes is a worthy investment?

I'd be remiss if I didn't give a shout-out to Jeff Bzdelik and his fighting Buffaloes. Colorado has as good of a chance as anyone else to finish eighth, since it hosts Texas Tech on Senior Day. Although there temporarily is a three-way tie there, OU's out of the picture because it was swept by Tech.

As TB mentioned below, the wide gulf between the Significant Seven and the Funky Five is pretty staggering. Just to put things into perspective, consider this:

We're having a historical season, and Iowa State has lost as many Big 12 games as we have won. And vice versa.

Putrescent.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 15-1 NCAA 1 2 1 L-1 Kansas State Oklahoma State Bill Self
Kansas State 2 12-4 NCAA 5 5 5 W-7 Baylor Ole Miss Frank Martin
Baylor 3 11-5 NCAA 12 17 12 W-2 Texas A&M Colorado Scott Drew
Texas A&M 4 11-5 NCAA 13 24 23 W-1 Baylor Washington Mark Turgeon
Missouri 5 10-6 NCAA 36 12 16 L-1 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas 6 9-7 NCAA 24 13 10 L-1 Pittsburgh Oklahoma Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 7 9-7 NCAA 25 43 33 W-1 Kansas Oklahoma Travis Ford
Colorado 8 5-11 None 130 94 100 W-1 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Texas Tech 9 4-12 NIT 58 81 69 L-5 Oklahoma State Nebraska Pat Knight
Oklahoma 10 4-12 None 106 95 94 L-6 Texas San Diego Jeff Capel
Iowa State 11 3-13 None 127 82 84 L-1 Saint Louis Colorado Greg McDermott
Nebraska 12 3-13 None 136 90 96 W-1 Texas Tech Colorado Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

No sense in reprinting the projected bracket from the other day, because it's barely changed. Instead, some other notes:

Obviously, Kansas gained a loss and Oklahoma State gained a very, very big win. Also, Colorado and Texas Tech flipped yet again, but I think this one will stick — this is the first time all three models have agreed upon a Colorado victory.

K-State, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Nebraska all experienced nice across-the-board increases in their computer numbers. K-State's Pomeroy rating jumped from 10 to 5, which is pretty unusual this late in the season. I attribute that to the high regard in which KenPom holds Missouri.

Guess who has the longest active winning streak in the Big 12? The really crazy thing is the next-best streak after our undefeated February is Baylor's two-game streak. Astounding.

On the flip side, after Nebraska's 50-minute win — which must have felt like winning the NCAA Tournament to Doc Sadler — Oklahoma inherits the shameful mantle of longest losing streak in the conference, with Texas Tech hot on its heels.

I don't think the Sooners will yield the crown, though — just three more losses and this miserable season in Norman finally will be over. By the way, no one else even has a losing streak, per se, so those two teams look even more pathetic at this juncture.

Clearly, Oklahoma State and Nebraska collected their best wins of the season Saturday, and it's really not even close.

Conversely, Kansas, Texas Tech and Iowa State each collected its worst loss of the season on the same day.

Finally, some food for thought: With the undefeated season going down in orange flames, doesn't Frank Martin basically become the favorite for Coach of the Year? Guess we'll find out Wednesday night...

GAMER: Now has Texas Tech losing to Colorado.

Pomeroy: No change.

Sagarin: Now has Texas Tech losing to Colorado.

 

Self-Evaluation

Another perfect day of picks! What's that, you say? I only went 5-1? Oh, you misunderstand...

It's a perfect day whenever I can jinx the Jayhawks into a loss, you see.

I've got Baylor and Missouri winning on the road this week, with all other home teams holding serve.

Cross your fingers, and maybe I'll post another 5-1 "perfect" week, and then we'll really have something to talk about.

Cumulative pick record: 68-16 (.810)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
65 A&M
88 K-State
90 Texas
83 I-State
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
01.16
4-2 (.667)
70 O-State
83 Baylor
87 K-State
81 Colorado
63 Tech
89 Kansas
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
01.18-01.20
5-0 (1.000)
62 Texas
71 K-State
62 Oklahoma
65 A&M
78 Colorado
90 O-State
71 I-State
78 Tech
75 Baylor
81 Kansas
01.23
4-1 (.800)
63 Colorado
67 A&M
84 Kansas
61 I-State
73 O-State
69 K-State
53 Nebraska
70 Missouri
65 Oklahoma
75 Tech
01.25-01.27
5-1 (.833)
65 Missouri
84 Kansas
76 K-State
74 Baylor
60 Nebraska
72 Colorado
84 I-State
89 Oklahoma
69 A&M
76 O-State
83 Tech
95 Texas
01.30
5-1 (.833)
63 Colorado
64 I-State
81 Kansas
79 K-State (OT)
80 O-State
95 Missouri
46 Oklahoma
63 Nebraska
70 Tech
85 A&M
80 Baylor
77 Texas (OT)
02.01-02.03
4-1 (.800)
72 Texas
60 O-State
76 K-State
57 Nebraska
72 Kansas
66 Colorado (OT)
63 I-State
84 Baylor
77 A&M
74 Missouri
02.06
4-2 (.667)
84 Missouri
66 Colorado
79 K-State
75 I-State
64 Nebraska
75 Kansas
71 Texas
80 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
78 A&M
74 O-State
81 Tech
02.08-02.10
3-1 (.750)
80 Kansas
68 Texas
72 Tech
71 Oklahoma
56 I-State
65 Missouri
55 Baylor
53 Nebraska
02.13
5-1 (.833)
51 Colorado
68 K-State
59 I-State
73 Kansas
62 Missouri
64 Baylor
51 Nebraska
91 Texas
76 Oklahoma
97 O-State
67 A&M
65 Tech
02.15-02.17
5-1 (.833)
59 Kansas
54 A&M
70 Tech
88 Baylor
67 Oklahoma
77 Colorado
69 O-State
64 I-State
87 Nebraska
91 K-State
77 Texas
82 Missouri
02.20
5-1 (.833)
60 A&M
56 I-State
83 K-State
68 Oklahoma
74 Colorado
94 Kansas
74 Missouri
59 Nebraska
75 Baylor
82 O-State
71 Texas
67 Tech
02.22-02.24
6-0 (1.000)
68 Oklahoma
81 Kansas
83 K-State
64 Tech
66 A&M
70 Baylor
74 Nebraska
78 I-State
63 Colorado
92 Missouri
59 O-State
69 Texas
02.27
5-1 (.833)
72 I-State
75 Colorado
53 Missouri
63 K-State
77 Kansas
85 O-State
79 Tech
83 Nebraska (2OT)
70 Baylor
63 Oklahoma
58 Texas
74 A&M
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Tech
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Bring On The Cats

You must be a member of Bring On The Cats to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bring On The Cats. You should read them.

Join Bring On The Cats

You must be a member of Bring On The Cats to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bring On The Cats. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker