Nos. 1 and 2 appear set, and the only question now is whether 2 can tie 1 and force the most media attention you'll ever see for a drawing that is not for the Powerball.
The three-way tie for third place and the five-way battle for the last two byes remain the most compelling storylines in the last week of conference play. Missouri's probably at a disadvantage, since the Tigers have to play the top-ranked team in the nation during their final stretch.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M proved what we all knew from the game back in Austin when it walloped the Longhorns in College Station. Hard as it might be to divorce ourselves from the preseason hype and prognostications, it's indisputably clear now:
Texas is exactly where it belongs. It's the sixth-best team in the best or second-best conference.
The T-sips lost to every single team ahead of them in the standings, whether in Austin or on the road. And they swept the team immediately behind them. DeLoss Dodds, welcome to the middle of the pack. Still think Rick Barnes is a worthy investment?
I'd be remiss if I didn't give a shout-out to Jeff Bzdelik and his fighting Buffaloes. Colorado has as good of a chance as anyone else to finish eighth, since it hosts Texas Tech on Senior Day. Although there temporarily is a three-way tie there, OU's out of the picture because it was swept by Tech.
As TB mentioned below, the wide gulf between the Significant Seven and the Funky Five is pretty staggering. Just to put things into perspective, consider this:
We're having a historical season, and Iowa State has lost as many Big 12 games as we have won. And vice versa.
Putrescent.
Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
Kansas | 1 | 15-1 | NCAA | 1 | 2 | 1 | L-1 | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | Bill Self |
Kansas State | 2 | 12-4 | NCAA | 5 | 5 | 5 | W-7 | Baylor | Ole Miss | Frank Martin |
Baylor | 3 | 11-5 | NCAA | 12 | 17 | 12 | W-2 | Texas A&M | Colorado | Scott Drew |
Texas A&M | 4 | 11-5 | NCAA | 13 | 24 | 23 | W-1 | Baylor | Washington | Mark Turgeon |
Missouri | 5 | 10-6 | NCAA | 36 | 12 | 16 | L-1 | Kansas State | Oral Roberts | Mike Anderson |
Texas | 6 | 9-7 | NCAA | 24 | 13 | 10 | L-1 | Pittsburgh | Oklahoma | Rick Barnes |
Oklahoma State | 7 | 9-7 | NCAA | 25 | 43 | 33 | W-1 | Kansas | Oklahoma | Travis Ford |
Colorado | 8 | 5-11 | None | 130 | 94 | 100 | W-1 | Baylor | Oregon State | Jeff Bzdelik |
Texas Tech | 9 | 4-12 | NIT | 58 | 81 | 69 | L-5 | Oklahoma State | Nebraska | Pat Knight |
Oklahoma | 10 | 4-12 | None | 106 | 95 | 94 | L-6 | Texas | San Diego | Jeff Capel |
Iowa State | 11 | 3-13 | None | 127 | 82 | 84 | L-1 | Saint Louis | Colorado | Greg McDermott |
Nebraska | 12 | 3-13 | None | 136 | 90 | 96 | W-1 | Texas Tech | Colorado | Doc Sadler |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
Discussion
No sense in reprinting the projected bracket from the other day, because it's barely changed. Instead, some other notes:
Obviously, Kansas gained a loss and Oklahoma State gained a very, very big win. Also, Colorado and Texas Tech flipped yet again, but I think this one will stick — this is the first time all three models have agreed upon a Colorado victory.
K-State, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Nebraska all experienced nice across-the-board increases in their computer numbers. K-State's Pomeroy rating jumped from 10 to 5, which is pretty unusual this late in the season. I attribute that to the high regard in which KenPom holds Missouri.
Guess who has the longest active winning streak in the Big 12? The really crazy thing is the next-best streak after our undefeated February is Baylor's two-game streak. Astounding.
On the flip side, after Nebraska's 50-minute win — which must have felt like winning the NCAA Tournament to Doc Sadler — Oklahoma inherits the shameful mantle of longest losing streak in the conference, with Texas Tech hot on its heels.
I don't think the Sooners will yield the crown, though — just three more losses and this miserable season in Norman finally will be over. By the way, no one else even has a losing streak, per se, so those two teams look even more pathetic at this juncture.
Clearly, Oklahoma State and Nebraska collected their best wins of the season Saturday, and it's really not even close.
Conversely, Kansas, Texas Tech and Iowa State each collected its worst loss of the season on the same day.
Finally, some food for thought: With the undefeated season going down in orange flames, doesn't Frank Martin basically become the favorite for Coach of the Year? Guess we'll find out Wednesday night...
GAMER: Now has Texas Tech losing to Colorado.
Pomeroy: No change.
Sagarin: Now has Texas Tech losing to Colorado.
Self-Evaluation
Another perfect day of picks! What's that, you say? I only went 5-1? Oh, you misunderstand...
It's a perfect day whenever I can jinx the Jayhawks into a loss, you see.
I've got Baylor and Missouri winning on the road this week, with all other home teams holding serve.
Cross your fingers, and maybe I'll post another 5-1 "perfect" week, and then we'll really have something to talk about.
Cumulative pick record: 68-16 (.810)
Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8 percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- S — Sagarin composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)
Predicted Outcomes
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