BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.06.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.5.2010)


 

Although the conference still is tightly packed, it's begun to separate into two halves — those with winning conference records and those without. Not coincidentally, those who follow the jump will see that the upper six also are the projected tournament teams at this time.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-0 NCAA 1 1 1 W-7 Kansas State Tennessee Bill Self
Baylor 2 13-3 NCAA 24 14 13 W-2 Texas Colorado Scott Drew
Kansas State 3 12-4 NCAA 7 8 9 W-1 Texas Missouri Frank Martin
Texas 4 12-4 NCAA 18 7 6 W-1 Michigan State Connecticut Rick Barnes
Missouri 5 9-7 NCAA 49 15 24 L-1 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas A&M 6 8-8 NCAA 26 40 34 W-2 Clemson Washington Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State 7 6-10 NIT 30 56 43 L-2 Kansas State Oklahoma Travis Ford
Colorado 8 5-11 None 137 83 97 L-2 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Texas Tech 9 4-12 NIT 41 84 72 L-2 Washington Missouri Pat Knight
Oklahoma 10 4-12 None 90 96 91 L-1 Oklahoma State San Diego Jeff Capel
Iowa State 11 4-12 None 111 87 82 L-1 Bradley Oklahoma Greg McDermott
Nebraska 12 3-13 None 133 90 94 L-1 Tulsa Colorado Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Missouri's loss is the state of Texas' gain. The Tigers dropped enough in the computer rankings to help the Longhorns pick up an extra projected win, and Mizzou's real-life loss gave Texas A&M just the bump it needed to get to a predicted .500 record and the elusive sixth projected bid.

It's telling that the winning streaks are concentrated at the top and the losing streaks at the bottom, further reinforcing the dichotomy that I suggested is emerging.

But it's also fitting that in this conference, where anyone can beat anyone (hell, even lowly Colorado can drag the mighty Jayhawks to overtime), none of the streaks are longer than two games (with the obvious exception of one).

For any team other than Kansas, sustaining success longer than two or three games will be difficult — which will make it all the more impressive if K-State can do precisely that this month.

GAMER: Now has Texas A&M beating Oklahoma in Norman.

Pomeroy: Now has Oklahoma State losing at Iowa State and at Texas Tech.

Sagarin: Now has Texas beating Missouri, Oklahoma State losing to Baylor at home and to Iowa State* in Ames, and Texas Tech losing at Colorado.

*This result is marked with an asterisk above and below because — once home-court advantage was factored into the equation — ISU and OSU were tied by Sagarin rating. The last time this happened, I flipped a coin and it favored the home team, so for simplicity's sake (and to make things a little more interesting upset-wise), I'm just going to award all ties to the home team.

 

Self-Evaluation

I thought I was going out on a limb in projecting three road wins, and as it turned out, only Baylor could protect its home floor. When the 32-game winning streak at Mizzou Arena crumbles to the ground, it's eye-opening.

Road success no longer appears as elusive as it did two weeks earlier — at least, for the teams at the top.

Keeping that in mind, the model is taking four road teams to win today. K-State, Missouri and Texas all should win, but all easily could lose, as well.

The Baylor game is much more iffy. Coming off a win like Wednesday's, Texas A&M will be fired up to protect its home court, where it has not lost this season. The winner of that game will take a huge step forward toward claiming a first-round bye in Kansas City.

I also would be unsurprised by Oklahoma State stealing a win in Lubbock. It'll be interesting to see if my near-80 percent pick record holds up today.

Cumulative pick record: 35-9 (.795)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
65 A&M
88 K-State
90 Texas
83 I-State
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
01.16
4-2 (.667)
70 O-State
83 Baylor
87 K-State
81 Colorado
63 Tech
89 Kansas
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
01.18-01.20
5-0 (1.000)
62 Texas
71 K-State
62 Oklahoma
65 A&M
78 Colorado
90 O-State
71 I-State
78 Tech
75 Baylor
81 Kansas
01.23
4-1 (.800)
63 Colorado
67 A&M
84 Kansas
61 I-State
73 O-State
69 K-State
53 Nebraska
70 Missouri
65 Oklahoma
75 Tech
01.25-01.27
5-1 (.833)
65 Missouri
84 Kansas
76 K-State
74 Baylor
60 Nebraska
72 Colorado
84 I-State
89 Oklahoma
69 A&M
76 O-State
83 Tech
95 Texas
01.30
5-1 (.833)
63 Colorado
64 I-State
81 Kansas
79 K-State (OT)
80 O-State
95 Missouri
46 Oklahoma
63 Nebraska
70 Tech
85 A&M
80 Baylor
77 Texas (OT)
02.01-02.03
4-1 (.800)
72 Texas
60 O-State
76 K-State
57 Nebraska
72 Kansas
66 Colorado (OT)
63 I-State
84 Baylor
77 A&M
74 Missouri
02.06
Missouri (GPS)
@ Colorado
K-State (GPS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Baylor (GP)
@ A&M (S)
O-State
@ Tech (GPS)
02.08-02.10
Kansas (PS)
@ Texas (G)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Nebraska
02.13
Colorado
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Texas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (G)
@ Tech (PS)
02.15-02.17
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Colorado (GPS)
O-State (G)
@ I-State (PS*)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas (GS)
@ Missouri (P)
02.20
A&M (GPS)
@ I-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (GPS)
@ O-State
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.22-02.24
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.27
I-State (G)
@ Colorado (PS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Tech
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (GPS)
@ A&M
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Tech
@ Colorado (GPS)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
X
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