BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.27.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.26.2010)


 

That's one heck of a clustered mess behind the Jayhawks. Sure will be fun to watch it sort itself out in the next week and a half.

The battle for fourth place promises to be especially interesting, since Texas has to face both Baylor and Texas A&M on the road in upcoming games.

Theoretical question: Now that Colorado and Iowa State both are within a game of Oklahoma and Texas Tech, do they graduate out of the "Northtard" category? Or, since all of those teams are three games back of the NCAA teams, do OU and TTU become "Southtards"?

It's burning questions such as these that keep me up at night.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-0 NCAA 1 2 1 W-13 Kansas State Tennessee Bill Self
Kansas State 2 12-4 NCAA 6 10 6 W-6 Baylor Ole Miss Frank Martin
Baylor 3 11-5 NCAA 12 17 14 W-1 Xavier Colorado Scott Drew
Texas A&M 4 11-5 NCAA 18 31 26 L-1 Baylor Washington Mark Turgeon
Missouri 5 10-6 NCAA 39 12 15 W-3 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas 6 9-7 NCAA 22 11 10 W-2 Pittsburgh Oklahoma Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 7 8-8 NCAA 33 49 39 L-1 Kansas State Oklahoma Travis Ford
Texas Tech 8 5-11 NIT 51 84 65 L-4 Oklahoma State Wichita State Pat Knight
Colorado 9 4-12 None 141 93 102 L-2 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Oklahoma 10 4-12 None 104 96 94 L-5 Texas San Diego Jeff Capel
Iowa State 11 3-13 None 117 82 81 W-1 Saint Louis Oklahoma Greg McDermott
Nebraska 12 3-13 None 144 91 99 L-7 Tulsa Colorado Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

The more things change, the more they stay the same, right?

Which is why there basically were no changes this week. Assuming everything holds as predicted tomorrow, we're probably looking at the following bracket:

No. 8 Texas Tech vs. No. 8 Colorado — A rematch of the final game of the regular season.

No. 5 Missouri vs. No. 12 Nebraska

No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Oklahoma — Bedlam, Part 3.

No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Iowa State

No. 1 Kansas vs. 8/9 winner

No. 4 Texas A&M vs. 5/12 winner — Potential revenge for Missouri.

No. 2 Kansas State vs. 7/10 winner — Potential revenge for us.

No. 3 Baylor vs. 6/11 winner

 

GAMER: No change.

Pomeroy: No change.

Sagarin: No change.

 

Self-Evaluation

Woohoo! My first 6-0 week — and only my second perfect week — this year.

That's the goal, baby. It's been harder this season, but I'm hopeful that we've finally locked in on who the better teams are, and now that they're the only ones with something for which to play, they should continue whooping the others.

As a result, my pick percentage now is an eye-popping 80 percent. If you can nail four out of every five games in this league, you're doing something right.

Today, there appear to be three sets of games.

I predict a bad day in the Land Thief State, because Baylor and Kansas seem to be prohibitive favorites on the road.

K-State looks pretty safe at home, and yes, I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Nebraska will snap its seven-game losing streak. Who better to beat than Texas Tech, which has lost four in a row and doesn't have a single RPI Top 100 road win on its resume? Hell, the Red Raiders only have won two road games all season.

In between those two extremes, there's Colorado and Texas A&M. Both appear to be favorites at home, but either Iowa State or Texas winning on the road to complete the sweep wouldn't surprise anyone, either. If I get tripped up today, I'll bet you anything one of those two games, or both, is responsible.

Cumulative pick record: 63-15 (.808)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
65 A&M
88 K-State
90 Texas
83 I-State
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
01.16
4-2 (.667)
70 O-State
83 Baylor
87 K-State
81 Colorado
63 Tech
89 Kansas
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
01.18-01.20
5-0 (1.000)
62 Texas
71 K-State
62 Oklahoma
65 A&M
78 Colorado
90 O-State
71 I-State
78 Tech
75 Baylor
81 Kansas
01.23
4-1 (.800)
63 Colorado
67 A&M
84 Kansas
61 I-State
73 O-State
69 K-State
53 Nebraska
70 Missouri
65 Oklahoma
75 Tech
01.25-01.27
5-1 (.833)
65 Missouri
84 Kansas
76 K-State
74 Baylor
60 Nebraska
72 Colorado
84 I-State
89 Oklahoma
69 A&M
76 O-State
83 Tech
95 Texas
01.30
5-1 (.833)
63 Colorado
64 I-State
81 Kansas
79 K-State (OT)
80 O-State
95 Missouri
46 Oklahoma
63 Nebraska
70 Tech
85 A&M
80 Baylor
77 Texas (OT)
02.01-02.03
4-1 (.800)
72 Texas
60 O-State
76 K-State
57 Nebraska
72 Kansas
66 Colorado (OT)
63 I-State
84 Baylor
77 A&M
74 Missouri
02.06
4-2 (.667)
84 Missouri
66 Colorado
79 K-State
75 I-State
64 Nebraska
75 Kansas
71 Texas
80 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
78 A&M
74 O-State
81 Tech
02.08-02.10
3-1 (.750)
80 Kansas
68 Texas
72 Tech
71 Oklahoma
56 I-State
65 Missouri
55 Baylor
53 Nebraska
02.13
5-1 (.833)
51 Colorado
68 K-State
59 I-State
73 Kansas
62 Missouri
64 Baylor
51 Nebraska
91 Texas
76 Oklahoma
97 O-State
67 A&M
65 Tech
02.15-02.17
5-1 (.833)
59 Kansas
54 A&M
70 Tech
88 Baylor
67 Oklahoma
77 Colorado
69 O-State
64 I-State
87 Nebraska
91 K-State
77 Texas
82 Missouri
02.20
5-1 (.833)
60 A&M
56 I-State
83 K-State
68 Oklahoma
74 Colorado
94 Kansas
74 Missouri
59 Nebraska
75 Baylor
82 O-State
71 Texas
67 Tech
02.22-02.24
6-0 (1.000)
68 Oklahoma
81 Kansas
83 K-State
64 Tech
66 A&M
70 Baylor
74 Nebraska
78 I-State
63 Colorado
92 Missouri
59 O-State
69 Texas
02.27
I-State (G)
@ Colorado (PS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Tech
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (P)
@ A&M (GS)
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Tech (GS)
@ Colorado (P)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
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