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RPI WATCH: 2/25/2010

The Good

In the A-10: Xavier became the first NCAA-bound A-10 team to win at Saint Louis, which pretty much makes the Musketeers the front-runner, doesn't it? Especially if Temple loses there...

In the SEC: Ole Miss ended its losing streak by beating woeful Auburn.

 

The Bad

In the A-10: Dayton greeted the NIT with open arms by losing to Temple 49-41 in a game that would have made the Big Ten shudder at its ugliness. Unless the Flyers win their conference tournament, their bubble has burst.

In the SEC: Alabama continued to sink further into the sub-100 depths of the RPI by losing at Mississippi State.

 

The Ugly

Nebraska was swept by Iowa State, cementing the Huskers' status as potentially one of the worst Big 12 teams ever.

Star-divide

AP Ranking = 6

ESPN/USA Today Ranking = 6

Big 12 Record = 10-3

Overall Record = 23-4

RPI = 6

SOS = 8

Signature Wins (RPI 1-30) = Xavier, Texas A&M, Texas, Baylor

Quality Wins (RPI 31-100) = Dayton, UNLV, Texas Tech

Bad Losses (RPI 101 or greater) = none

  • Loyola Chicago (14-13, 5-11) | RPI = 191
  • Western Illinois (13-14, 6-10) | RPI = 266
  • Boston University (16-12, 10-5) | RPI = 165
  • Ole Miss (18-9, 6-7) | RPI = 63: Win over Auburn (85-75)
  • Dayton (18-9, 7-6) | RPI = 43: Loss at No. 20 Temple (49-41)
  • IUPUI (20-9, 13-3) | RPI = 102
  • No. 15* FHSU (20-5): Win over Pittsburg State (69-60)
  • Washington State (16-11, 6-9) | RPI = 127
  • Xavier (20-7, 11-2) | RPI = 18: Win at Saint Louis (73-71)
  • UNLV (21-7, 9-5) | RPI = 44: Win over TCU (78-62)
  • Alabama (14-13, 4-9) | RPI = 104: Loss at Mississippi State (74-66)
  • UAPB (12-14, 12-3) | RPI = 209
  • Cleveland State (14-15, 9-7) | RPI = 161
  • South Dakota (15-9) | RPI = 234
  • Missouri (21-7, 9-4) | RPI = 37: Win over Colorado (92-63)
  • No. 22 Texas A&M (19-8, 8-5) | RPI = 12: Loss at No. 24 Baylor (70-66)
  • Colorado (12-15, 3-10) | RPI = 130: Loss at Missouri (92-63)
  • No. 21 Texas (22-6, 8-5) | RPI = 24: Win over Oklahoma State (69-59)
  • Oklahoma State (19-8, 7-6) | RPI = 29: Loss at No. 21 Texas (69-59)
  • No. 24 Baylor (21-6, 8-5) | RPI = 16: Win over No. 22 Texas A&M (70-66)
  • No. 1 Kansas (27-1, 13-0) | RPI = 1
  • Nebraska (13-15, 1-12) | RPI = 134: Loss at Iowa State (78-74)
  • Iowa State (14-14, 3-10) | RPI = 121: Win over Nebraska (78-74)
  • Oklahoma (13-14, 4-9) | RPI = 105
  • Texas Tech (16-11, 4-9) | RPI = 48

*Division II Top 25

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Comments

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Brackins' shirt looks like "Brains"

Hail to the Purple, Hail to the White
Wildcat in spirit, Wildcat in fight
Hail Alma Mater from sea to sea
Onward forever, Hail Victory!

by MadCat on Feb 25, 2010 8:35 PM CST reply actions  

So how did OU lose to the awful Nubbs?

Oh that’s right… they’re the most disappointing team in the conference.

So BC, since I don’t know much about bball history in the Big XII, what are some other ‘best’ worst teams since the inception of the league? Do any KSU squads make it?

by Sean T on Feb 25, 2010 9:41 PM CST reply actions  

Historically Baylor has been the worst team in the Big 12

followed closely by A&M

There have been eleven 3-13 teams overall. (K-State once)
There have been one 2-14 teams overall. (K-State in 2000)
There have been three 1-15 teams overall. (A&M in ’98, Baylor in ’05, and Colorado in ’09)

There have been TWO winless teams in conference since the conference started: Baylor in ’99 and A&M in ’04.

As bad as Nebraska’s been this year – Baylor and A&M have been traditionally worse.

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Feb 26, 2010 10:37 AM CST up reply actions  

Oh, yeah

How could I forget Melvin Watkins’ winless aTm team? Or the Baylor team that was banned from playing non-con games?

by BracketCat on Feb 26, 2010 12:23 PM CST up reply actions  

2-14? Holy crap!

Good thing the football team was so good that year.

by Sean T on Feb 26, 2010 1:15 PM CST up reply actions  

This seems like it should be replaced or supplement by some sort of "Resumé watch".

Not that this is bad or anything, I’ve certainly enjoyed hearing what all K-State’s opponents have been up to since we played them. It just seems like keeping track of the tournament resumés of other likely top seeds would be more relevant at this point in the season.

Maybe something along the lines of this:

For all opponents true road games are indicated by “at”, neutral court games by “vs”.
All team numbers are RPI ranks from realtimerpi.com’s February 25th daily list.

Team resumés are given in the following format:
Team
RPI SOS Record: overall (conference)
Conference affiliation

Quality Wins: listed in order of increasing RPI, i.e. best first

Losses: listed in order of decreasing RPI, i.e. worst first

vs top 10: overall, away from home (“away” includes both road and neutral court games)
vs top 25: overall, away from home (includes vs top 10 record)
vs top 50: overall, away from home (includes vs top 25 record)
vs top 100: overall, away from home (includes vs top 50 record)
vs 100+: overall, away from home (does NOT include vs top 100 record)

Remaining Games: in chronological order

With no further ado, the nine teams I think have a reasonable shot at 1 or 2 seeds, in alphabetical order:

Duke Blue Devils

RPI Rank: 2 SOS Rank: 6 Record: 23-4 (11-2)
Conference: Atlantic Coast

Quality Wins: #21 Wake Forest, vs #26 Gonzaga, #29 Maryland, #33 Georgia Tech, #34 Florida State, at #36 Clemson, #36 Clemson, vs #40 Connecticut, #48 Virginia Tech, #55 Charlotte, vs #56 Arizona St., #74 St. John’s, at #83 Miami(FL)

Losses: at #120 NC State, at #33 Georgia Tech, at #17 Wisconsin, at #9 Georgetown

vs top 10: 0-1, 0-1
vs top 25: 1-2, 0-2
vs top 50: 9-3, 3-3
vs top 100: 13-3, 5-3
vs 100+: 10-1, 3-1

Remaining Games: #75 Tulsa, at #113 Virginia, at #29 Maryland, #102 North Carolina

Georgetown Hoyas

RPI Rank: 9 SOS Rank: 1 Record: 19-7 (9-6)
Conference: Big East

Quality Wins: #2 Duke, #8 Villanova, at #11 Pittsburgh, #13 Temple, vs #16 Butler, #40 Connecticut, at #42 Louisville, #52 Seaton Hall, vs #62 Washington, #74 St. John’s, #95 Harvard

Losses: at #125 Rutgers, #69 South Florida, at #54 Marquette, #41 Old Dominion, at #8 Villanova, #4 Syracuse, at #4 Syracuse,

vs top 10: 2-3, 0-2
vs top 25: 5-3, 2-2
vs top 50: 7-4, 3-2
vs top 100: 11-6, 4-3
vs 100+: 8-1, 4-1

Remaining Games: #72 Notre Dame, at #5 West Virginia, #59 Cincinnati

Kansas Jayhawks

RPI Rank: 1 SOS Rank: 24 Record: 27-1 (13-0)
Conference: Big 12

Quality Wins: at #6 Kansas State, #12 Baylor, at #13 Temple, at #18 Texas A&M, at #22 Texas, #24 California, #39 Missouri, #49 Cornell, #51 Texas Tech, #68 Oakland, vs #69 Memphis

Losses: at #20 Tennessee

vs top 10: 1-0, 1-0
vs top 25: 6-1, 4-1
vs top 50: 8-1, 4-1
vs top 100: 11-1, 5-1
vs 100+: 16-0, 4-0

Remaining Games: at #31 Oklahoma St., #6 Kansas State, at #39 Missouri

Kansas State Wildcats

RPI Rank: 6 SOS Rank: 10 Record: 22-4 (10-3)
Conference: Big 12

Quality Wins: at #12 Baylor, #14 Xavier, #18 Texas A&M, #22 Texas, vs #43 Dayton, at #44 UNLV, at #51 Texas Tech

Losses: vs #60 Mississippi, at #39 Missouri, #31 Oklahoma State, #1 Kansas

vs top 10: 0-1, 0-0
vs top 25: 4-1, 1-0
vs top 50: 6-3, 3-1
vs top 100: 7-4, 4-2
vs 100+: 15-0, 6-0

Remaining Games: #39 Missouri, at #1 Kansas, #118 Iowa State

Kentucky Wildcats

RPI Rank: 3 SOS Rank: 45 Record: 26-1 (11-1)
Conference: Southeastern

Quality Wins: at #15 Vanderbilt, #15 Vanderbilt, #20 Tennessee, vs #40 Connecticut, #42 Louisville, at #45 Florida, at #58 Mississippi St., #60 Mississippi, #77 Sam Houston St., #93 Georgia, #98 Morehead St.

Losses: at #82 South Carolina

vs top 10: 0-0, 0-0
vs top 25: 3-0, 1-0
vs top 50: 6-0, 3-0
vs top 100: 11-1, 4-1
vs 100+: 15-0, 6-0

Remaining Games: #82 South Carolina, at #20 Tennessee, at #93 Georgia, #45 Florida

Purdue Boilermakers

RPI Rank: 7 SOS Rank: 44 Record: 24-3 (12-3)
Conference: Big Ten

Quality Wins: #5 West Virginia, #17 Wisconsin, vs #20 Tennessee, #21 Wake Forest, at #27 Michigan St., at #30 Ohio State, at #64 Illinois, #64 Illinois, #81 Minnesota, at #81 Minnesota, #89 Buffalo

Losses: #92 Northwestern, #30 Ohio State, at #17 Wisconsin

vs top 10: 1-0, 0-0
vs top 25: 4-1, 1-1
vs top 50: 6-2, 3-1
vs top 100: 11-3, 5-1
vs 100+: 13-0, 6-0

Remaining Games: #27 Michigan St., #216 Indiana, at #200 Penn St.

Syracuse Orange

RPI Rank: 4 SOS Rank: 12 Record: 26-2 (13-2)
Conference: Big East

Quality Wins: at #5 West Virginia, at #9 Georgetown, #9 Georgetown, vs #24 California, #40 Connecticut, vs #45 Florida, #49 Cornell, at #52 Seaton Hall, #54 Marquette, at #59 Cincinnati, #67 South Florida, #68 Oakland, #69 Memphis, at #72 Notre Dame

Losses: #42 Louisville, #11 Pittsburgh

vs top 10: 3-0, 2-0
vs top 25: 4-1, 3-0
vs top 50: 7-2, 4-0
vs top 100: 14-2, 7-0
vs 100+: 11-0, 3-0

Remaining Games: #8 Villanova, #74 St. John’s, at #42 Louisville

Villanova Wildcats

RPI Rank: 8 SOS Rank: 38 Record: 23-4 (12-3)
Conference: Big East

Quality Wins: at #5 West Virginia, #9 Georgetown, vs #29 Maryland, at #42 Louisville, vs #43 Dayton, #52 Seaton Hall, at #54 Marquette, #54 Marquette, vs #60 Mississippi, #67 South Florida, #72 Notre Dame, at #74 St. John’s

Losses: #40 Connecticut, at #13 Temple, at #11 Pittsburgh, at #9 Georgetown

vs top 10: 2-1, 1-1
vs top 25: 2-3, 1-3
vs top 50: 5-4, 4-3
vs top 100: 12-4, 7-3
vs 100+: 11-0, 4-0

Remaining Games: at #4 Syracuse, at #56 Cincinnati, #5 West Virginia

West Virginia Mountaineers

RPI Rank: 5 SOS Rank: 3 Record: 21-6 (10-5)
Conference: Big East

Quality Wins: #11 Pittsburgh, vs #18 Texas A&M, #30 Ohio State, #42 Louisville, at #52 Seaton Hall, #52 Seaton Hall, vs #61 Marshall, #54 Marquette, #60 Mississippi, at #67 South Florida, at #74 St. John’s, vs #85 Portland, #87 Duquense,

Losses: at #72 Notre Dame, at #40 Connecticut, at #11 Pittsburgh, #8 Villanova, at #7 Purdue, #4 Syracuse

vs top 10: 0-3, 0-1
vs top 25: 2-4, 1-2
vs top 50: 4-5, 1-3
vs top 100: 13-6, 6-4
vs 100+: 8-0, 5-0

Remaining Games: #59 Cincinnati, #9 Georgetown, at #8 Villanova

Other teams considered
New Mexico: Mountain West Conf. doesn’t do enough for SOS.
Pittsburgh: Not enough schedule left to make up lost ground.
Baylor: 2 bad losses are too many.
Temple: 52nd SOS is not enough and it won’t get any better.
Xavier: Not enough schedule to overcome 7 losses.
Vanderbilt: SEC is not giving them a chance to overcome the 6 losses they have.

And finally my rankings:
I’ve divided them into tiers because they seem to sort themselves out that way. I could see movement within tiers, but would be surprised by movement between tiers.

Tier I
Kansas
Syracuse
Kentucky

Tier II
Purdue
Kansas State
Villanova

Tier III
Duke
Georgetown
West Virginia

That would make Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky and Purdue the 1 seeds with Kansas State, Villanova, Duke and Georgetown on the 2 lines.

I would like to point out that this is strictly based on the records provided above. It is not an attempt to say which team is better than which right now or which would win on a neutral court. It is simply my judgment on which teams have demonstrated the most over the course of the season.

I primarily used records vs top 25 RPI teams and road records to sort these and mostly broke ties with best wins and worst losses. I did not make any attempt to account for injuries, when particular wins or losses occurred, or any margins of victory. Quite frankly I’m not interested in putting that much effort into this. Anyone who thinks that information would be relevant is free to research it and draw conclusions themselves.

by grmann on Feb 25, 2010 9:59 PM CST reply actions  

I think Duke needs to be bumped into Tier II status

Their resume is strong and if you took away names from resumes, any selection committee would have them as a 1 seed.

As far as K-State’s chances, I’ll follow ESPN’s methodology:

Lock: 3 Seed
Should get In: 2 Seed
Work left to do: 1 Seed

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Feb 26, 2010 8:53 AM CST up reply actions  

Here's the problem with Duke:

Their resumé is very strong in the middle, but there’s nothing at the top of it.

Duke is 1-2 against teams with top 25 RPIs. The only other teams that are even close to that are West Virginia at 2-4 and Villanova at 2-3. Everybody else has a winning record.

Duke’s best win is against Wake Forest, which ranks 21st in RPI. Every other team listed has at least two wins over teams with better RPIs. Except for Villanova and West Virginia they all have three such wins. Every other team listed also got at least one of those wins away from home. Except for Purdue and West Virginia, it was in a true road game.

Duke’s road record is 8-4, which ties with Georgetown for worst on the list. West Virginia is the next one up at 11-4. Duke’s road record against the top 100 is 5-3, which is in 7th place ahead of only West Virginia at 4-3 and Villanova at 6-4.

Duke’s worst loss was at NC State which is currently 120th in RPI. The only worse loss on the list was Georgetown at #125 Rutgers. Other losses outside the top 50 RPI were:
92 Northwestern at Purdue
82 South Carolina over Kentucky
72 Notre Dame over West Virginia
69 South Florida at Georgetown
60 Mississippi vs Kansas State
54 Marquette over Georgetown
Kansas, Syracuse and Villanova do not have any losses outside the top 50.

Bottom line: Duke is not impressive away from home and verges on laughable against elite teams, at least compared to what the rest of the contenders have done. Since the tournament will not be played at Duke and will be against elite teams (at least after the first couple rounds) I have to say Duke’s chances are not that good. They can probably make the Sweet Sixteen. I’d be surprised if they make the Final Four. I don’t know how you could make them a 1 seed unless they’ve shown some evidence they could make the Final Four.

by grmann on Feb 26, 2010 12:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm just trying to predict what the selection committee is going to do

and they’ll pick Duke.

They still have to play @ Maryland – that should be a real key game.

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Feb 26, 2010 4:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Um, yeah

Think I’ll let you do that… ;-)

by BracketCat on Feb 26, 2010 10:09 AM CST up reply actions  

But I don't wanna do my own research.

The whole point of the internet is to find other people to do all the boring fact gathering and correlating and let me just sit back and look at the results. :)

by grmann on Feb 26, 2010 11:24 AM CST up reply actions  

Heh

Unfortunately, this cat ain’t got time to do it. Maybe someone else will pick up the ball and post a FanPost.

by BracketCat on Feb 26, 2010 12:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Can somebody please tell me if...

our game is on espn 360 tomorrow or broadcast anywhere. I don’t get ESPNU but also couldn’t find the game last week and someone on here was good enough to post a link that worked. thanks!

Wildcat for life

by mjk7166 on Feb 26, 2010 9:02 AM CST reply actions  

ESPNU games are not on 360

Your best bet is to find a justin.tv stream.

There was a new guy who did it Tuesday. As soon as I see the link tomorrow, I’ll post it in the open game thread.

by BracketCat on Feb 26, 2010 10:13 AM CST up reply actions  

At this point, I wouldn't give Purdue a 1 seed

over Villanova or K-State. Even before the Hummell injury, I just think they’ve taken advantage of a poor conference (plus, they lost to freaking Northwestern!).

But, Nova and KSU have much tougher schedules left, so this one will have to play out. It’s going to be an exciting couple of weeks as the final 4 or 5 teams clammer for that 1 seed.

www.bringonthecats.com

by EMAW on Feb 26, 2010 10:50 AM CST reply actions  

I agree

I think Duke’s in the driver’s seat.

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Feb 26, 2010 10:54 AM CST up reply actions  

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