BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.22.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.21.2010)


 

Things still are tightly compacted in the race for second place, as no team is more than two losses behind us in the loss column.

But we hold tiebreakers on all but two of them, and of the two that beat us, we get another shot at Missouri and I don't see Oklahoma State seriously getting into the mix with the schedule ahead of it — although the Cowboys have surprised me thus far, winning two in a row that my model had them losing.

Meanwhile, Kansas inched ever closer to a 16-0 season, and given that we now look like a seven-bid conference, that accomplishment would be damned impressive — perhaps even worthy of a second consecutive Coach of the Year honor, much as I hate to admit it.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-0 NCAA 1 2 1 W-12 Kansas State Tennessee Bill Self
Kansas State 2 12-4 NCAA 6 11 8 W-5 Texas A&M Ole Miss Frank Martin
Baylor 3 11-5 NCAA 15 15 13 L-1 Xavier Colorado Scott Drew
Texas A&M 4 11-5 NCAA 13 34 24 W-1 Baylor Washington Mark Turgeon
Missouri 5 10-6 NCAA 39 13 14 W-2 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas 6 9-7 NCAA 25 9 10 W-1 Pittsburgh Oklahoma Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 7 8-8 NCAA 29 47 37 W-3 Kansas State Oklahoma Travis Ford
Texas Tech 8 5-11 NIT 46 79 65 L-3 Oklahoma State Wichita State Pat Knight
Colorado 9 4-12 None 131 89 99 L-1 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Oklahoma 10 4-12 None 105 98 95 L-4 Texas San Diego Jeff Capel
Iowa State 11 3-13 None 120 81 86 L-6 Saint Louis Oklahoma Greg McDermott
Nebraska 12 3-13 None 137 90 98 L-6 Tulsa Colorado Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Without a doubt, the team of the week has to be Oklahoma State.

The Cowboys picked up unpredicted wins at Iowa State and against Baylor, and in the process, firmly planted themselves on the right side of the bubble. They needed one more signature win — before a brutal stretch that likely will see them lose their next three — and they got it.

Although Baylor's numbers suffered across the board as a result of the loss, the Bears still are in a favorable position — a tie with Texas A&M favors them because of a higher predicted record against the South Division.

Kansas continued its unholy march toward league history in steady fashion. With the awakening of Xavier Henry, the Jayhawks clearly are the best team in the nation. To put things in perspective, consider that they have won as many consecutive Big 12 games as the bottom two teams have lost combined. That's just grotesque.

As for the aforementioned bottom-feeders, I hardly can wait until this week's much-anticipated showdown between Iowa State and Nebraska. The winner is going to feel damn good about itself and the loser might fire its coach by Saturday.

The last time these stalwart rivals met on the hardwood, the Cyclones escaped Lincoln with a three-point win, but not before taunting, "Just like football!"

Will the Huskers avenge their Pelini-led brethren? More important, will tbe bloody game even be on TV, or will it be blacked out to protect younger viewers from the monstrosity that will unfold?

Texas Tech is about ready to kick the bucket, especially considering John Roberson's injury. But the Red Raiders actually are an interesting test case.

God forbid they should upset the Cats on Tuesday, but if they do and somehow can win out from there, that 8-8 record actually might get them on the bubble. Pomeroy has them losing out, though.

Speaking of Pomeroy, if you ever need to remind yourself that his rankings can be a bit wonky from time to time, look no further than their decision today to drop Kansas to No. 2 behind freakin' Duke.

Yes, Ken Pom's crazy calculator actually thinks a four-loss team that barely has been challenged in its mediocre conference is better than the RPI No. 1 team that has more quality wins than Flava Flav has gold teeth. Will wonders never cease?

And what can we say about poor Oklahoma that wasn't already said by us moving into his apartment, shacking up with his girlfriend, eating all of his Cheetos and stealing his PS3 on the way out?

When this model first spat out the result of an eight-game losing streak to end the Sooners' miserable season, I was skeptical. No more. The team I saw finish Saturday's game looked absolutely beaten. How ugly will Big Monday be? Will Jeff Capel even be able to field enough players to finish the year?

Of course, on the bright side, at least he won't be (Doc Sadler/Greg McDermott — insert losing coach here) this week.

Now that really would suck.

GAMER: Now has Colorado losing to Texas Tech.

Pomeroy: No change, other than his too-cool-for-school shakeup at the top.

Sagarin: Now has Texas Tech losing to Nebraska*.

*This result is marked with an asterisk above and below because — once home-court advantage was factored into the equation — NU and TTU were tied by Sagarin rating. For simplicity's sake (and to make things a little more interesting upset-wise), I award all ties to the home team. It should be noted that the previous BIG 12 OUTLOOK also had Texas Tech losing to Nebraska, so this is not a new result, per se. But the tie is new.

 

Self-Evaluation

5-1! It's the new 6-0!

I told you Baylor wasn't the shoo-in all three prediction systems claimed, didn't I? Hell hath no fury like a bubble team fighting for its tournament life.

This week is the complete opposite of last Saturday. Now I'm picking all the home teams to win, save one. Much saner strategy, that.

Colorado, Nebraska and Oklahoma probably don't stand a chance.

OSU certainly would like to avenge its home loss to Texas, which looks even more vulnerable after it needed a last-minute shot to beat Texas Tech and lost Dogus Balbay, likely for the season. But I think the Longhorns will find a way to get it done in the The Drum.

Baylor, on the other hand, should be able to collect said revenge against Texas A&M. This is a bad time for the Aggies to roll into Waco, considering what just happened in Stillwater.

And that just leaves us. C'mon, Cats, don't let me down!

Cumulative pick record: 57-15 (.792)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
65 A&M
88 K-State
90 Texas
83 I-State
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
01.16
4-2 (.667)
70 O-State
83 Baylor
87 K-State
81 Colorado
63 Tech
89 Kansas
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
01.18-01.20
5-0 (1.000)
62 Texas
71 K-State
62 Oklahoma
65 A&M
78 Colorado
90 O-State
71 I-State
78 Tech
75 Baylor
81 Kansas
01.23
4-1 (.800)
63 Colorado
67 A&M
84 Kansas
61 I-State
73 O-State
69 K-State
53 Nebraska
70 Missouri
65 Oklahoma
75 Tech
01.25-01.27
5-1 (.833)
65 Missouri
84 Kansas
76 K-State
74 Baylor
60 Nebraska
72 Colorado
84 I-State
89 Oklahoma
69 A&M
76 O-State
83 Tech
95 Texas
01.30
5-1 (.833)
63 Colorado
64 I-State
81 Kansas
79 K-State (OT)
80 O-State
95 Missouri
46 Oklahoma
63 Nebraska
70 Tech
85 A&M
80 Baylor
77 Texas (OT)
02.01-02.03
4-1 (.800)
72 Texas
60 O-State
76 K-State
57 Nebraska
72 Kansas
66 Colorado (OT)
63 I-State
84 Baylor
77 A&M
74 Missouri
02.06
4-2 (.667)
84 Missouri
66 Colorado
79 K-State
75 I-State
64 Nebraska
75 Kansas
71 Texas
80 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
78 A&M
74 O-State
81 Tech
02.08-02.10
3-1 (.750)
80 Kansas
68 Texas
72 Tech
71 Oklahoma
56 I-State
65 Missouri
55 Baylor
53 Nebraska
02.13
5-1 (.833)
51 Colorado
68 K-State
59 I-State
73 Kansas
62 Missouri
64 Baylor
51 Nebraska
91 Texas
76 Oklahoma
97 O-State
67 A&M
65 Tech
02.15-02.17
5-1 (.833)
59 Kansas
54 A&M
70 Tech
88 Baylor
67 Oklahoma
77 Colorado
69 O-State
64 I-State
87 Nebraska
91 K-State
77 Texas
82 Missouri
02.20
5-1 (.833)
60 A&M
56 I-State
83 K-State
68 Oklahoma
74 Colorado
94 Kansas
74 Missouri
59 Nebraska
75 Baylor
82 O-State
71 Texas
67 Tech
02.22-02.24
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.27
I-State (G)
@ Colorado (PS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Tech
@ Nebraska (GPS*)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (P)
@ A&M (GS)
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Tech (GS)
@ Colorado (P)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
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