With home wins over Colorado and Oklahoma, Kansas will clinch at least a share of the regular-season championship. I think that's pretty likely, so this thing virtually is over.
But K-State looks like a near-lock for the No. 2 position, at least. With head-to-head tiebreakers against Baylor and Texas A&M, and an upcoming game against Missouri, the Wildcats are in very good position.
Speaking of the Tigers, their game in Lincoln today is no cakewalk. Nebraska is going to knock off someone — Mizzou better hope it's not them.
That leaves Texas and Oklahoma State duking it out for the last spot in the upper half of the conference. UT has the upper hand, having already won in Stillwater, with a return trip remaining in Austin. But will the Longhorns' struggles damage their confidence and open the door for the Cowboys to jump them?
Interestingly enough, if you swap Baylor for Oklahoma, this is the same set of teams that was in contention for NCAA Tournament bids last season. Are we starting to see some separation between the haves and the have-nots in the Big 12?
Keep in mind that Baylor had the talent to be in the chosen group last season, had it not tanked, and the Bears proved it in the 2009 postseason.
Seed* | Record* | Tourney* | RPI | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Streak | Best Win** | Worst Loss** | Coach | |
Kansas | 1 | 16-0 | NCAA | 1 | 1 | 1 | W-11 | Kansas State | Tennessee | Bill Self |
Kansas State | 2 | 12-4 | NCAA | 6 | 12 | 8 | W-4 | Baylor | Ole Miss | Frank Martin |
Baylor | 3 | 12-4 | NCAA | 13 | 14 | 11 | W-3 | Xavier | Colorado | Scott Drew |
Texas A&M | 4 | 11-5 | NCAA | 16 | 35 | 25 | L-1 | Baylor | Washington | Mark Turgeon |
Missouri | 5 | 10-6 | NCAA | 39 | 13 | 15 | W-1 | Kansas State | Oral Roberts | Mike Anderson |
Texas | 6 | 9-7 | NCAA | 28 | 9 | 10 | L-1 | Pittsburgh | Oklahoma | Rick Barnes |
Oklahoma State | 7 | 7-9 | NIT | 33 | 50 | 42 | W-2 | Kansas State | Oklahoma | Travis Ford |
Colorado | 8 | 5-11 | None | 135 | 88 | 98 | W-1 | Baylor | Oregon State | Jeff Bzdelik |
Texas Tech | 9 | 4-12 | NIT | 42 | 78 | 64 | L-2 | Oklahoma State | Wichita State | Pat Knight |
Oklahoma | 10 | 4-12 | None | 99 | 94 | 94 | L-3 | Texas | San Diego | Jeff Capel |
Iowa State | 11 | 3-13 | None | 116 | 82 | 84 | L-5 | Saint Louis | Oklahoma | Greg McDermott |
Nebraska | 12 | 3-13 | None | 123 | 87 | 96 | L-5 | Tulsa | Colorado | Doc Sadler |
Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)
*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI
Discussion
Very little change this week.
Oklahoma State picked up a game by winning in Ames, but the Cowboys' resume is weak enough that I don't think even 7-9 will get it done for them. That's a 19-11 overall regular-season record, which is very bubbly. The road win over K-State is the only thing oSu really can show the committee.
Okie Lite needs to pick off one more upset in order to feel safe. The problem is: All three models are in agreement that it should drop its next four games in a row. That would be a killer for Travis Ford's team, IMO.
Texas Tech's losing streak dropped its numbers enough to give a projected win back to Colorado, which meant the Buffaloes jumped back in the No. 8 position.
Oklahoma is exactly where I thought they'd be and losing out looks like a strong possibility at this juncture, if the Sooners can't pull off the upset tomorrow.
Who else hardly can wait for that showdown in Ames between Iowa State and Nebraska? Somebody's colossal losing streak has to end...
GAMER: Now has Texas Tech losing to Colorado.
Pomeroy: No change.
Sagarin: Now has Texas Tech losing to Nebraska.
Self-Evaluation
Once again, a split decision cost me a perfect week. GAMER had Oklahoma State winning in Ames, but Pomeroy and Sagarin didn't want to go along for the ride.
By this time last year, I had three perfect outings. The Big 12 appears to be more balanced, and thus more unpredictable, than last season. Duh, right?
The model's predictions for today concern me. The last time I picked this many road teams, I had my worst week of the season.
All three models are in total agreement on all six games, but that doesn't mean much when the guy in stripes throws the orange ball into the air.
So who is most at risk tomorrow? Texas A&M at Iowa State? K-State at OU? Missouri at Nebraska? (That's the one I'm leaning toward.) Baylor at Oklahoma State? Or Texas at Texas Tech? (Also a strong possibility.)
KU looks like the only sure thing on the board. Welcome to Separation Saturday — when the NCAA men try to pull away from the NIT-or-worse boys.
Cumulative pick record: 52-14 (.788)
Key
Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:
- G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8 percent accuracy)
- P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
- S — Sagarin composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)
Predicted Outcomes
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