BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.20.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.19.2010)


 

With home wins over Colorado and Oklahoma, Kansas will clinch at least a share of the regular-season championship. I think that's pretty likely, so this thing virtually is over.

But K-State looks like a near-lock for the No. 2 position, at least. With head-to-head tiebreakers against Baylor and Texas A&M, and an upcoming game against Missouri, the Wildcats are in very good position.

Speaking of the Tigers, their game in Lincoln today is no cakewalk. Nebraska is going to knock off someone — Mizzou better hope it's not them.

That leaves Texas and Oklahoma State duking it out for the last spot in the upper half of the conference. UT has the upper hand, having already won in Stillwater, with a return trip remaining in Austin. But will the Longhorns' struggles damage their confidence and open the door for the Cowboys to jump them?

Interestingly enough, if you swap Baylor for Oklahoma, this is the same set of teams that was in contention for NCAA Tournament bids last season. Are we starting to see some separation between the haves and the have-nots in the Big 12?

Keep in mind that Baylor had the talent to be in the chosen group last season, had it not tanked, and the Bears proved it in the 2009 postseason.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-0 NCAA 1 1 1 W-11 Kansas State Tennessee Bill Self
Kansas State 2 12-4 NCAA 6 12 8 W-4 Baylor Ole Miss Frank Martin
Baylor 3 12-4 NCAA 13 14 11 W-3 Xavier Colorado Scott Drew
Texas A&M 4 11-5 NCAA 16 35 25 L-1 Baylor Washington Mark Turgeon
Missouri 5 10-6 NCAA 39 13 15 W-1 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas 6 9-7 NCAA 28 9 10 L-1 Pittsburgh Oklahoma Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 7 7-9 NIT 33 50 42 W-2 Kansas State Oklahoma Travis Ford
Colorado 8 5-11 None 135 88 98 W-1 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Texas Tech 9 4-12 NIT 42 78 64 L-2 Oklahoma State Wichita State Pat Knight
Oklahoma 10 4-12 None 99 94 94 L-3 Texas San Diego Jeff Capel
Iowa State 11 3-13 None 116 82 84 L-5 Saint Louis Oklahoma Greg McDermott
Nebraska 12 3-13 None 123 87 96 L-5 Tulsa Colorado Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Very little change this week.

Oklahoma State picked up a game by winning in Ames, but the Cowboys' resume is weak enough that I don't think even 7-9 will get it done for them. That's a 19-11 overall regular-season record, which is very bubbly. The road win over K-State is the only thing oSu really can show the committee.

Okie Lite needs to pick off one more upset in order to feel safe. The problem is: All three models are in agreement that it should drop its next four games in a row. That would be a killer for Travis Ford's team, IMO.

Texas Tech's losing streak dropped its numbers enough to give a projected win back to Colorado, which meant the Buffaloes jumped back in the No. 8 position.

Oklahoma is exactly where I thought they'd be and losing out looks like a strong possibility at this juncture, if the Sooners can't pull off the upset tomorrow.

Who else hardly can wait for that showdown in Ames between Iowa State and Nebraska? Somebody's colossal losing streak has to end...

GAMER: Now has Texas Tech losing to Colorado.

Pomeroy: No change.

Sagarin: Now has Texas Tech losing to Nebraska.

 

Self-Evaluation

Once again, a split decision cost me a perfect week. GAMER had Oklahoma State winning in Ames, but Pomeroy and Sagarin didn't want to go along for the ride.

By this time last year, I had three perfect outings. The Big 12 appears to be more balanced, and thus more unpredictable, than last season. Duh, right?

The model's predictions for today concern me. The last time I picked this many road teams, I had my worst week of the season.

All three models are in total agreement on all six games, but that doesn't mean much when the guy in stripes throws the orange ball into the air.

So who is most at risk tomorrow? Texas A&M at Iowa State? K-State at OU? Missouri at Nebraska? (That's the one I'm leaning toward.) Baylor at Oklahoma State? Or Texas at Texas Tech? (Also a strong possibility.)

KU looks like the only sure thing on the board. Welcome to Separation Saturday — when the NCAA men try to pull away from the NIT-or-worse boys.

Cumulative pick record: 52-14 (.788)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
65 A&M
88 K-State
90 Texas
83 I-State
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
01.16
4-2 (.667)
70 O-State
83 Baylor
87 K-State
81 Colorado
63 Tech
89 Kansas
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
01.18-01.20
5-0 (1.000)
62 Texas
71 K-State
62 Oklahoma
65 A&M
78 Colorado
90 O-State
71 I-State
78 Tech
75 Baylor
81 Kansas
01.23
4-1 (.800)
63 Colorado
67 A&M
84 Kansas
61 I-State
73 O-State
69 K-State
53 Nebraska
70 Missouri
65 Oklahoma
75 Tech
01.25-01.27
5-1 (.833)
65 Missouri
84 Kansas
76 K-State
74 Baylor
60 Nebraska
72 Colorado
84 I-State
89 Oklahoma
69 A&M
76 O-State
83 Tech
95 Texas
01.30
5-1 (.833)
63 Colorado
64 I-State
81 Kansas
79 K-State (OT)
80 O-State
95 Missouri
46 Oklahoma
63 Nebraska
70 Tech
85 A&M
80 Baylor
77 Texas (OT)
02.01-02.03
4-1 (.800)
72 Texas
60 O-State
76 K-State
57 Nebraska
72 Kansas
66 Colorado (OT)
63 I-State
84 Baylor
77 A&M
74 Missouri
02.06
4-2 (.667)
84 Missouri
66 Colorado
79 K-State
75 I-State
64 Nebraska
75 Kansas
71 Texas
80 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
78 A&M
74 O-State
81 Tech
02.08-02.10
3-1 (.750)
80 Kansas
68 Texas
72 Tech
71 Oklahoma
56 I-State
65 Missouri
55 Baylor
53 Nebraska
02.13
5-1 (.833)
51 Colorado
68 K-State
59 I-State
73 Kansas
62 Missouri
64 Baylor
51 Nebraska
91 Texas
76 Oklahoma
97 O-State
67 A&M
65 Tech
02.15-02.17
5-1 (.833)
59 Kansas
54 A&M
70 Tech
88 Baylor
67 Oklahoma
77 Colorado
69 O-State
64 I-State
87 Nebraska
91 K-State
77 Texas
82 Missouri
02.20
A&M (GPS)
@ I-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (GPS)
@ O-State
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.22-02.24
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.27
I-State (G)
@ Colorado (PS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Tech
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (P)
@ A&M (GS)
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Tech (S)
@ Colorado (GP)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
X
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