BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.15.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.14.2010)


 

A quick glance at the above standings indicates that we reasonably can expect Texas A&M to be ranked by this time tomorrow, when it hosts the Jayhawks on Big Monday. At a minimum, Georgia Tech and UNLV should be falling out, and Baylor will replace Cornell in the coaches' poll.

Of course, I'm on record saying KU will go 16-0, so it remains to be seen how long the Aggies' ranking lasts this time around.

At any rate, given that we hold a head-to-head tiebreaker and have a much easier remaining schedule than Mark Turgeon's club, I'm not too worried about them.

They're welcome to the No. 3 seed, because second is not available.

The battle for the final bye is a free-for-all between Baylor, Missouri and Texas.

Baylor has the upper hand due to wins over the other two, and if it can complete the sweep against the Longhorns in Waco, that should put an end to the discussion.

Oklahoma State collected a much-needed win to end a three-game losing streak and send Oklahoma tumbling into a losing streak of its own, but I'm still not buying the Cowboys as an NCAA Tournament team.

They need to beat either Baylor or Texas and collect another quality win, although the win over Texas A&M is gaining weight with each passing game.

The other teams pretty much are a lost cause and I don't plan on discussing them much from here on out. Texas Tech let its best chance to get back on the bubble slip through its fingers Saturday, and while I project Colorado to collect at least two more wins, its season probably will end in Kansas City.

The other three might be starting to contemplate coaching changes...

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-0 NCAA 1 1 1 W-10 Kansas State Tennessee Bill Self
Kansas State 2 12-4 NCAA 8 9 8 W-3 Texas A&M Ole Miss Frank Martin
Baylor 3 12-4 NCAA 18 16 13 W-2 Xavier Colorado Scott Drew
Texas A&M 4 11-5 NCAA 13 34 25 W-4 Baylor Washington Mark Turgeon
Missouri 5 10-6 NCAA 44 14 22 L-1 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas 6 9-7 NCAA 28 8 10 W-1 Texas A&M Oklahoma Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 7 6-10 NIT 37 53 44 W-1 Kansas State Oklahoma Travis Ford
Texas Tech 8 5-11 NIT 36 79 63 L-1 Oklahoma State Wichita State Pat Knight
Oklahoma 9 4-12 None 88 94 89 L-2 Texas San Diego Jeff Capel
Iowa State 10 4-12 None 107 80 80 L-4 Saint Louis Oklahoma Greg McDermott
Colorado 11 4-12 None 143 87 103 L-4 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Nebraska 12 3-13 None 126 91 95 L-4 Tulsa Colorado Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

How do you know you're a Northtard? Check your schedule. Have you lost four in a row? Then you're a Northtard.

The numbers finally caught up to poor ol' Colorado, which now is projected to lose to Texas Tech and finish 4-12, not the lofty 5-11 the Buffaloes had been sitting at for the past few editions of BIG 12 OUTLOOK.

Things are tight in the race for mediocrity among our February opponents not named Kansas and Missouri, and that tiny little change sent Colorado plummeting down the bracket to an 11 seed.

Such is life among the have-nots. But at least the NIT-projected teams stack up more nicely below the NCAA ones now.

The complete opposite of the Northtards is red-hot Texas A&M, which ripped off its fourth straight win by popping Texas Tech's bubble in Lubbock. That win, combined with a newly predicted home victory against Texas, moved the Aggies ahead of Missouri in the race for the final bye — for now.

Hypothetical question: If Texas finishes 9-7 and gets the No. 6 seed, wouldn't the Longhorns have to be considered about the worst flop of a one-time No. 1 team ever?

GAMER: Now has Texas beating Missouri and losing at Texas A&M, and Colorado losing to Texas Tech.

Pomeroy: No change.

Sagarin: Now has Nebraska losing to Texas Tech.

 

Self-Evaluation

Just as I predicted, Texas A&M threw a curveball into what otherwise would have been a perfect prediction day. It's one more piece of evidence that Pomeroy might be the most accurate of the three models.

Given that factoid, I guess we should keep our eyes on Oklahoma State at Iowa State and Texas at Missouri this week. Pomeroy is the only one of the three to step out on a limb and take the road team in either instance.

Baylor and K-State look like relatively sure bets to keep their winning streaks going. There is a chance that Texas A&M can upset Kansas, but picking the Jayhawks has been extremely profitable so far — no reason to stop now.

Perhaps the most fascinating game of the week is Oklahoma at Colorado. It's a true sign of how bad things have become in Norman that Colorado, despite a four-game losing streak, appears to be the sounder team coming in and should be favored at home. It would be nice if the Buffs can soften up the Sooners for us.

Cumulative pick record: 47-13 (.783)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
65 A&M
88 K-State
90 Texas
83 I-State
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
01.16
4-2 (.667)
70 O-State
83 Baylor
87 K-State
81 Colorado
63 Tech
89 Kansas
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
01.18-01.20
5-0 (1.000)
62 Texas
71 K-State
62 Oklahoma
65 A&M
78 Colorado
90 O-State
71 I-State
78 Tech
75 Baylor
81 Kansas
01.23
4-1 (.800)
63 Colorado
67 A&M
84 Kansas
61 I-State
73 O-State
69 K-State
53 Nebraska
70 Missouri
65 Oklahoma
75 Tech
01.25-01.27
5-1 (.833)
65 Missouri
84 Kansas
76 K-State
74 Baylor
60 Nebraska
72 Colorado
84 I-State
89 Oklahoma
69 A&M
76 O-State
83 Tech
95 Texas
01.30
5-1 (.833)
63 Colorado
64 I-State
81 Kansas
79 K-State (OT)
80 O-State
95 Missouri
46 Oklahoma
63 Nebraska
70 Tech
85 A&M
80 Baylor
77 Texas (OT)
02.01-02.03
4-1 (.800)
72 Texas
60 O-State
76 K-State
57 Nebraska
72 Kansas
66 Colorado (OT)
63 I-State
84 Baylor
77 A&M
74 Missouri
02.06
4-2 (.667)
84 Missouri
66 Colorado
79 K-State
75 I-State
64 Nebraska
75 Kansas
71 Texas
80 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
78 A&M
74 O-State
81 Tech
02.08-02.10
3-1 (.750)
80 Kansas
68 Texas
72 Tech
71 Oklahoma
56 I-State
65 Missouri
55 Baylor
53 Nebraska
02.13
5-1 (.833)
51 Colorado
68 K-State
59 I-State
73 Kansas
62 Missouri
64 Baylor
51 Nebraska
91 Texas
76 Oklahoma
97 O-State
67 A&M
65 Tech
02.15-02.17
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Colorado (GPS)
O-State (G)
@ I-State (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas (G)
@ Missouri (PS)
02.20
A&M (GPS)
@ I-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (GPS)
@ O-State
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.22-02.24
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.27
I-State (G)
@ Colorado (PS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Tech (S)
@ Nebraska (GP)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (P)
@ A&M (GS)
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Tech (GS)
@ Colorado (P)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
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