BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.13.10

One of these is not like the other. Hint: It's the team that's running away with the conference, in spite of the fact that the conference is the strongest it's been in 13 years of existence.

The three-way tie for second place is misleading, in my opinion, because K-State has by far the easiest remaining schedule and should end the season with wins over both teams with which it's tied.

I also would not count Baylor out in the race for a first-day bye. The Bears still are projected by two models to win out in the regular season, which would put them in a fine position. The home rematches against Texas and Texas A&M are huge.

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech all look like NIT-type teams at this point. Don't be fooled by the Red Raiders' "resurgence" — their last two wins came against the Oklahoma schools. If they beat Texas A&M and K-State, then we'll talk.

I'm with Kevin Kietzman — at this point, it appears the Northtards will go 0-18 against KU, K-State and Missouri.

Maybe Iowa State can bite the Tigers in Ames, but it would be a significant upset.

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

Discussion

Very little movement this week. The only unexpected result was Texas Tech winning at Oklahoma, which produced a place switch between the two teams.

Other than that, there's not much to discuss. Maybe today will shake things up more.

I do think it's funny how Texas' continued travails have made our best win Texas A&M and Baylor's best win Xavier.

Also, Mississippi's 5-5 SEC record finally drove it below Missouri in the RPI, while Wichita State has been vacillating back forth with Missouri and Oklahoma State for the right to be the Red Raiders' worst loss.

GAMER: Now has Missouri beating Texas.

Pomeroy: No change.

Sagarin: Now has Baylor winning at Oklahoma State.

Self-Evaluation

Meh, three outta four ain't bad.

Will any road team win today? The computers don't think so.

Texas A&M seems to have the best chance. Pomeroy favors the Aggies and he usually tends to be a little more accurate than the other two. If they sweep Tech, it wouldn't surprise me that much. When the two-game winning streak meets the three-game winning streak, something has to give.

Colorado, Iowa State and Nebraska aren't so much opponents this week as they are sacrificial lambs. Texas, in particular, needs to feast on that succulent mutton from Lincoln and get back to being a decent team.

Many think Missouri will give Baylor a game, and I suppose it's possible, but I don't really see it. With the trees they have in the middle, the Bears should out-rebound the Tigers at least 30-20. This will be an interesting and competitive rematch of last year's conference tournament championship game only if Mizzou makes its shots.

And Oklahoma State needs a win in the worst way. Getting swept by the woeful Sooners would end the Cowboys' NCAA candidacy for good. That three-game losing streak needs to end fast in they have any designs on a successful season.

Cumulative pick record: 42-12 (.778)

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

• G — RealTimeRPI GAMER (an advanced statistical prediction model, claiming 76.8 percent accuracy)
• P — Ken Pomeroy's rankings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
• S — Sagarin composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

Predicted Outcomes