BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.13.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 2.12.2010)


 

One of these is not like the other. Hint: It's the team that's running away with the conference, in spite of the fact that the conference is the strongest it's been in 13 years of existence.

The three-way tie for second place is misleading, in my opinion, because K-State has by far the easiest remaining schedule and should end the season with wins over both teams with which it's tied.

I also would not count Baylor out in the race for a first-day bye. The Bears still are projected by two models to win out in the regular season, which would put them in a fine position. The home rematches against Texas and Texas A&M are huge.

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech all look like NIT-type teams at this point. Don't be fooled by the Red Raiders' "resurgence" — their last two wins came against the Oklahoma schools. If they beat Texas A&M and K-State, then we'll talk.

I'm with Kevin Kietzman — at this point, it appears the Northtards will go 0-18 against KU, K-State and Missouri.

Maybe Iowa State can bite the Tigers in Ames, but it would be a significant upset.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-0 NCAA 1 1 1 W-9 Kansas State Tennessee Bill Self
Kansas State 2 12-4 NCAA 8 9 8 W-2 Texas A&M Ole Miss Frank Martin
Baylor 3 12-4 NCAA 23 16 13 W-1 Xavier Colorado Scott Drew
Missouri 4 10-6 NCAA 41 14 17 W-2 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas 5 10-6 NCAA 28 13 11 L-2 Pittsburgh Oklahoma Rick Barnes
Texas A&M 6 9-7 NCAA 19 36 28 W-3 Baylor Washington Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State 7 6-10 NIT 37 60 49 L-3 Kansas State Oklahoma Travis Ford
Colorado 8 5-11 None 151 88 102 L-3 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Texas Tech 9 5-11 NIT 30 81 60 W-2 Oklahoma State Wichita State Pat Knight
Oklahoma 10 4-12 None 83 89 87 L-1 Texas San Diego Jeff Capel
Iowa State 11 4-12 None 116 85 81 L-3 Saint Louis Oklahoma Greg McDermott
Nebraska 12 3-13 None 133 84 93 L-3 Tulsa Colorado Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Very little movement this week. The only unexpected result was Texas Tech winning at Oklahoma, which produced a place switch between the two teams.

Other than that, there's not much to discuss. Maybe today will shake things up more.

I do think it's funny how Texas' continued travails have made our best win Texas A&M and Baylor's best win Xavier.

Also, Mississippi's 5-5 SEC record finally drove it below Missouri in the RPI, while Wichita State has been vacillating back forth with Missouri and Oklahoma State for the right to be the Red Raiders' worst loss.

GAMER: Now has Missouri beating Texas.

Pomeroy: No change.

Sagarin: Now has Baylor winning at Oklahoma State.

 

Self-Evaluation

Meh, three outta four ain't bad.

Will any road team win today? The computers don't think so.

Texas A&M seems to have the best chance. Pomeroy favors the Aggies and he usually tends to be a little more accurate than the other two. If they sweep Tech, it wouldn't surprise me that much. When the two-game winning streak meets the three-game winning streak, something has to give.

Colorado, Iowa State and Nebraska aren't so much opponents this week as they are sacrificial lambs. Texas, in particular, needs to feast on that succulent mutton from Lincoln and get back to being a decent team.

Many think Missouri will give Baylor a game, and I suppose it's possible, but I don't really see it. With the trees they have in the middle, the Bears should out-rebound the Tigers at least 30-20. This will be an interesting and competitive rematch of last year's conference tournament championship game only if Mizzou makes its shots.

And Oklahoma State needs a win in the worst way. Getting swept by the woeful Sooners would end the Cowboys' NCAA candidacy for good. That three-game losing streak needs to end fast in they have any designs on a successful season.

Cumulative pick record: 42-12 (.778)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
65 A&M
88 K-State
90 Texas
83 I-State
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
01.16
4-2 (.667)
70 O-State
83 Baylor
87 K-State
81 Colorado
63 Tech
89 Kansas
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
01.18-01.20
5-0 (1.000)
62 Texas
71 K-State
62 Oklahoma
65 A&M
78 Colorado
90 O-State
71 I-State
78 Tech
75 Baylor
81 Kansas
01.23
4-1 (.800)
63 Colorado
67 A&M
84 Kansas
61 I-State
73 O-State
69 K-State
53 Nebraska
70 Missouri
65 Oklahoma
75 Tech
01.25-01.27
5-1 (.833)
65 Missouri
84 Kansas
76 K-State
74 Baylor
60 Nebraska
72 Colorado
84 I-State
89 Oklahoma
69 A&M
76 O-State
83 Tech
95 Texas
01.30
5-1 (.833)
63 Colorado
64 I-State
81 Kansas
79 K-State (OT)
80 O-State
95 Missouri
46 Oklahoma
63 Nebraska
70 Tech
85 A&M
80 Baylor
77 Texas (OT)
02.01-02.03
4-1 (.800)
72 Texas
60 O-State
76 K-State
57 Nebraska
72 Kansas
66 Colorado (OT)
63 I-State
84 Baylor
77 A&M
74 Missouri
02.06
4-2 (.667)
84 Missouri
66 Colorado
79 K-State
75 I-State
64 Nebraska
75 Kansas
71 Texas
80 Oklahoma
71 Baylor
78 A&M
74 O-State
81 Tech
02.08-02.10
3-1 (.750)
80 Kansas
68 Texas
72 Tech
71 Oklahoma
56 I-State
65 Missouri
55 Baylor
53 Nebraska
02.13
Colorado
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Texas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (P)
@ Tech (GS)
02.15-02.17
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Colorado (GPS)
O-State (G)
@ I-State (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.20
A&M (GPS)
@ I-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (GPS)
@ O-State
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.22-02.24
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.27
I-State (G)
@ Colorado (PS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Tech
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (GP)
@ A&M (S)
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Tech (S)
@ Colorado (GP)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
X
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