BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.01.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.31.2010)


 

I think we safely can dub what happened this weekend as "Separation Saturday."

The cumulative effect of KU's overtime win and Baylor's overtime win was to send the Jayhawks rocketing out in front of the pack like Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns now look exceedingly mortal, after falling to earth with the rest of us schlubs, currently in a five-way tie for second place.

If first no longer is available, I suppose this happy quintet will have to be content with constant jostling this month for seed order in both the Big 12 and NCAA Tournaments.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma lying down and giving Nebraska its first slice of Big 12 victory pie helped to define further the bottom teams in the league, of which there seem to be five.

Attack the jump with fervor if you would like to see all of this expressed numerically. Numbers are fun.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 16-0 NCAA 1 1 1 W-6 Kansas State Tennessee Bill Self
Baylor 2 13-3 NCAA 26 16 14 W-1 Xavier Colorado Scott Drew
Kansas State 3 12-4 NCAA 8 11 10 L-1 Xavier Missouri Frank Martin
Missouri 4 11-5 NCAA 34 14 17 W-1 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas 5 11-5 NCAA 19 8 8 L-1 Michigan State Connecticut Rick Barnes
Texas A&M 6 7-9 NIT 32 45 42 W-1 Texas Tech Washington Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State 7 7-9 NIT 28 49 38 L-1 Kansas State Oklahoma Travis Ford
Colorado 8 5-11 None 142 90 104 L-1 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Texas Tech 9 4-12 NIT 37 86 71 L-2 Washington Wichita State Pat Knight
Oklahoma 10 4-12 None 84 98 94 L-1 Oklahoma State San Diego Jeff Capel
Iowa State 11 3-13 None 114 87 82 W-1 Bradley Oklahoma Greg McDermott
Nebraska 12 3-13 None 130 85 95 W-1 Tulsa Colorado Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Remember the old Chevrolet commercial? "Like a rock..."?

Well, that was Texas this week. Only in this case, I use the expression less to describe toughness and more to describe gravity.

That loss to Baylor was like a light bulb flickering on above the computers' heads, and now everyone is racing in to claim their piece of the dead cow. If Texas can't steal one back in Waco or by upsetting Kansas, it probably can kiss a top-four seed goodbye. That's amazing, considering this team was ranked No. 1 less than two weeks ago.

But such is life in the Big 12 meat grinder.

Just ask Iowa State, which the computers finally realized isn't that good -- thus flipping projected home wins against aTm and oSu into losses. So the Aggies and the Cowboys inch a little closer to the safe side of the bubble, and the Cyclones fall out of the projected NIT picture. Ouch.

If it actually plays out this way, imagine yourself as an ISU fan after this season: Craig Brackins gone, Marquis Gilstrap gone, Lucca Staiger gone, the rest of the team still sucking and Greg McDermott likely fired. We could be looking at the new Colorado here, folks.

The beneficiaries of Iowa State's predicted decline are Colorado, Texas Tech and Oklahoma, which each move up a spot. Likewise, Kansas, Baylor and Missouri all greatly gained from Texas' loss of prestige and advanced significantly. Good thing we got that win in Waco, because it might serve as a tiebreaker come March.

And if you want to know why Kansas owns this league, look no further than the streaks. No one can put more than one or two wins together because they always make you go on the road after no more than two games at home.

Hence, no consistency -- except for one team that is very comfortable winning in all 11 other arenas and expects to do so every year. And they just keep picking them off...

GAMER: Now has Texas losing to Baylor in Waco and Texas A&M losing to Oklahoma in Norman.

Pomeroy: Now has Oklahoma State and Texas A&M both beating Iowa State in Ames and Texas Tech in Lubbock.

Sagarin: Now has Oklahoma State and Texas A&M both beating Iowa State in Ames, and Texas losing to Baylor in Waco, Kansas in Austin and Missouri in Columbia.

 

Self-Evaluation

Well, none of the computers had Baylor winning in Austin, but that savant Kevin Kietzman sure did. Bully for him.

Interesting tidbit: Big 12 home teams now are 2-3 in overtime games this season. Texas is 1-1, but really should have lost to Texas A&M. That leaves Oklahoma with the only semi-decisive home OT win this year, which doesn't mean much, because Oklahoma is shitty.

So, the moral of the story is: If you want to maintain that barbaric edge the home court usually gives you in Big 12 play, win the damn game in regulation.

I'm mildly uncomfortable about picking three road teams this week, especially considering how poorly Texas has played lately, but these still are the three best teams in the league.

KU and K-State definitely should take care of business in Boulder and Lincoln, so it's up to the Longhorns not to disappoint me on Big Monday. If Dexter Pittman and Damion James bother to show up, they should be OK, because OSU really has no frontcourt.

Cumulative pick record: 31-8 (.795)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
65 A&M
88 K-State
90 Texas
83 I-State
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
01.16
4-2 (.667)
70 O-State
83 Baylor
87 K-State
81 Colorado
63 Tech
89 Kansas
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
01.18-01.20
5-0 (1.000)
62 Texas
71 K-State
62 Oklahoma
65 A&M
78 Colorado
90 O-State
71 I-State
78 Tech
75 Baylor
81 Kansas
01.23
4-1 (.800)
63 Colorado
67 A&M
84 Kansas
61 I-State
73 O-State
69 K-State
53 Nebraska
70 Missouri
65 Oklahoma
75 Tech
01.25-01.27
5-1 (.833)
65 Missouri
84 Kansas
76 K-State
74 Baylor
60 Nebraska
72 Colorado
84 I-State
89 Oklahoma
69 A&M
76 O-State
83 Tech
95 Texas
01.30
5-1 (.833)
63 Colorado
64 I-State
81 Kansas
79 K-State (OT)
80 O-State
95 Missouri
46 Oklahoma
63 Nebraska
70 Tech
85 A&M
80 Baylor
77 Texas (OT)
02.01-02.03
Texas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Kansas (GPS)
@ Colorado
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
A&M
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.06
Missouri (GPS)
@ Colorado
K-State (GPS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Baylor (GP)
@ A&M (S)
O-State (P)
@ Tech (GS)
02.08-02.10
Kansas (PS)
@ Texas (G)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Nebraska
02.13
Colorado
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Texas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (G)
@ Tech (PS)
02.15-02.17
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Colorado (GPS)
O-State (GPS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas (G)
@ Missouri (PS)
02.20
A&M (GPS)
@ I-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (GP)
@ O-State (S)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.22-02.24
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.27
I-State (G)
@ Colorado (PS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Tech
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (GPS)
@ A&M
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
Texas
@ Baylor (GPS)
Tech (S)
@ Colorado (GP)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (PS)
@ Oklahoma (G)
X
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