The Conference Expansion Arms Race Is (Basically) Over

depends on whether we want to go east or west.

They bring absolutely nothing to the table television-wise, and are WAY outside the Big 12 footprint, with Manhattan and Lubbock being the “closest” to them at 1250+ miles. The Broncos have a nice story going, but their only hope for BCS membership, in my view, is if the Big 12 swipes the two Arizona schools from the Pac 12, and Larry Scott gets desperate. Or, if the Big East can’t figure anything else out, and COMPLETELY caves geographically.

Do you think that the Catholic schools actually would stand ANY chance of retaining the league brand and history, given their lack of big-time football programs? Also, I didn’t realize that G’town was non-scholarship, and doesn’t 18 teams for basketball just seem kind of, you know, huge?!? I guess not much more so than 17, but still, has there ever BEEN a conference that large in college athletics at any level?

Maybe not during this TV cycle, but sometime before the NEXT one, I’d think. If you don’t think they’d want to add any of these “except Notre Dame”, who do you think the 12th school would be, that would also bring something to the table, TV market-wise?

Maybe so, but I think that’s the ONLY way Arkansas is invited, as they bring little else to the table, other than geographical proximity. No new markets, no really expanded footprint — I’m just not so sure about the whole Arkansas thing, but I guess we’ll see.

I can tell you that the power structure in the state would fight any move out of the SEC. They see themselves as being strong players in the SEC now, even though they’ve only impacted the SEC a couple of times in FB and almost no time in BB since the early and mid 90’s.

Arkansas has a much wider reach in terms of fans than you realize. For some reason, people across the country relate to this state. I’ve learned that while traveling, when people learn you are from Arkansas they seem to have some idea how the Hogs are doing in FB or BB. Now I wasn’t aware until I moved here and eventually researched some things just to find out how the financial structure, etc., was put together but the UofA has a lot of clout academically as well. The University does not seem well endowed, but the Univ Foundation is well heeled and so is the athletic foundation. They know where the old hogs live and which ones have deep pockets (like JJ).

My personal preference would still be Louisville. I just think that from both a FB and BB viewpoint both, they bring more to the table. Arkanesia and Lu’Ville would be a good pick but I don’t think we’ll ever see the Hogs in this market (pun intended).

I still think there is a good chance that the Big Easty disintegrates on its own. I can’t help but think that with the entrance of TCU, it might give the real FB schools in that conference a chance to pack up and start a new one. Take the current FB schools, drop UConn, put in TCU and drag a couple of MAC or CUSA schools over such as Ohio and SMU and you’ve got a pretty good football conference that would maintain the AQ and shed the rest of the BB only schools that drag them down.

You’d have to make a very, very significant deal with the devil to make ND want to join this conference.

First of all, Notre Dame home games stay on NBC. Those would never be a part of the rights package we submit to Fox and ESPN. But, even then, Fox or ESPN/ABC getting the rights to broadcast 5-6 ND away games every year is probably enough to overcome the split difference and make it worth it. Texas/ND on NBC, OU/ND on NBC, etc. would be gigantic ratings draws on either network. From a TV money perspective, you could probably guarantee ND a $20 million cut (like OU/UT/A&M) AND they can still get their $9 million a year from NBC. From a TV money perspective, ND has the potential to make WAY, WAY, WAY more guaranteed money here than they do anywhere else, and that includes whatever they would have gotten from the Big Ten. So that’s the one major benefit and talking point you can use to get your foot in the door. Also, it would be a home in the best men’s and women’s basketball conferences in the country (sorry, Big East) and a solid conference where all of their non-revenue sports could compete with Texas, OU, Missouri, etc.

However, there are big downsides to dropping independence. I know that ND has long standing rivalries with USC, Michigan, Mich. St., etc., so prying them away from that for games against KU, KSU, Iowa State and Missouri (since ND would most likely be in the North) will most likely not be too appealing to the ND faithful. Also, there is a major risk there for NBC to be not as interested in paying them boatloads of money for those games because ND/KSU is not as sexy as ND/Michigan St. Granted, it may be better than ND/UConn or ND/Service Academy, but overall, I think there would be less marquee games every year to sell to NBC. You would just hope the consistent level of competition would be enough to overcome what they lose, but who knows?

The other big downside is that ND has some sweeeeeeeet deals for bowl games. If they’re 10-2, they go to the BCS. What other NCAA team has that arrangement? And no matter what bowl they go to, they get to keep all of the revenue; there is no sharing there. Should Brian Kelly, or any other coach, get them rolling again, and that’s big money every single year. Per the best numbers I can find, each Big 12 team will average about $2.7 million from shared bowl revenue that goes to all 12 teams. This year, they’re going to get $1.9 million from the Sun Bowl, so in this case, it would behoove them to join a conference. However, should they go to the BCS, that’s a net loss of nearly $14 million because they don’t share that money with anyone. So they’re taking a gamble; use their lax BCS requirements and profit enormously, or take less bowl money every year. However, should they qualify for the BCS, it’s freaking mana from heaven. That’s a decent risk.

In my opinion, the only way we’re getting Notre Dame is if you do two things:
1) Let them continue to sell their media rights to NBC for all home games and keep that revenue
2) Let them keep all of their bowl revenue. The Big 12 splits their bowl revenue eleven ways and ND feasts or famines like they do now. I believe that would be a fair arrangement.

That way, the only remaining hurdle is how ND uses their non-con to schedule Michigan, MSU, Purdue, USC, etc. Otherwise, it’s doable. It’s not ideal, but it’s doable.

“two major conferences west of the Mississippi (Big 12 & Pac 10) will sit at ten "

Other than that, I totally agree, particularly with your thoughts on Arkansas.

I don’t think aTm would care as much about going to the SEC.

My dad isn’t much of a football guy in general, but he lives for Army-Navy (being a retired Navy guy).

I don’t have any experience with AF guys, but I would imagine there is something similar to that, where the school has a larger following than just the graduates.

I like the service academies because of what they represent, not because they’re in a particular place. Being from KS, I’m not the best judge, but I don’t think NY or Maryland or Colorado inhabitants care more about their “local” service academy because of where they are than they would about the other service academy.

Notre Dame, Stanford and the Ivies are the only other schools that are comparable in that they’re nationwide universities, not local, but only ND and Stanford compete in D1A and they have long histories of success and many more alumni than the service academies. KSU students and fans primarily come from Kansas, Texas fans from Texas, Nebraska fans from pool of sludge (usually located in the state of Nebraska) etc. Air Force fans come from all over, but there aren’t many of them.

Think about it. Denver’s not too much bigger than KC, Colorado Springs about the size of Wichita and Fort Collins about the size of Topeka. Denver has the most professional sports teams per capita, which is why Denver’s not that great of a market to get a hold of (bad to lose) as it pertains to college sports. I have to think Air Force at best shares an equal amount of tv sets in that state as CSU and CU. But the interest of the average sports fan is divided among the Rockies, Avalanche, Broncos, Nuggets and Rapids, and college sports.

Again, AFA being a service academy wouldn’t be bad because of it’s nat’l following (whatever degree that is), but I don’t think it compares at all to hooking a state with decent population with no pro sports like Arkansas, which fills a 76,000 seat stadium on a regular basis. But even for a service academy, in no matter which way of relevance you slice it (just in general as an armed force) I don’t think it’s the average American’s first thought, or average Sports fan’s first thought when you say “service Academy”. I have to think they’re 3rd in line amongst the three service academies.

Grad school has encroached a bit for me, leading to fewer long posts like this one, and the “Greatest” series that I started. I still need to put together our BOTC fantasy basketball draft post, but after that, I will probably return to either the RB post or a follow-up to the post about possible replacements for Cosh — maybe both, since I’ll have a bit more time before school starts back up in mid-January.

He IS a tool, just not the sharpest one. I lived in DFW for over six years, and he writes things that he knows will get people up-in-arms, offers little by way of actual reasoning to support it, and sits back to enjoy the show. I mean, he doesn’t point to anything solid at all to support his prediction of the Big 12’s demise. He just calls it an “SWC redux” and leaves it at that. The SWC had TONS of issues that the Big 12 isn’t currently facing. To rehash those would take an entire post in itself, and would be quite uninteresting to most KSU fans. Anyways, suffice to say that a Sherrington article on most issues is to be taken with less than a grain of salt.

Also, I should note that I’m not advocating an immediate move back to 12. I think the conference should let a few years play out first, and then look at expanding again once the TV contracts near their end.

Trust The Onion to get to the bottom of TCU’s move.

For bringing The Onion into a conference expansion discussion, you win 5 internet points. Congratulations! :)

But apparently I give too much credit to non-AQ schools.

My only problem is geography. I don’t really like the idea of making us a national conference, I like the regional emphasis and wish the other conferences would stay that way as well.