Three Roads Diverged on a Purple Thursday, or How One Game Changes Everything
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 4, 2010 8:48 PM CDT
in Football
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PrintCall me sensationalist. Call me hyperbolistic. (Did I just invent that word? It has a red squiggly under it.) Call me whatever you want, but in my view, the road that is the season for our 2010 Wildcats diverges right here, in a three-pronged fork.
This game, against the hated Huskers holds the key that unlocks what the rest of our season becomes. I see three realistic outcomes for this season's Cats: 6-6 (2-6), 8-4 (4-4), or 10-2 (6-2). After the jump, I'll discuss the outcome of this game that would lead to the Cats down the path ending in the results above, as well as what I see to be the probability of each scenario.
First, let me be clear: I think that the Cats lose this game. The first two "paths" (6-6 and 8-4) are based upon that assumption. In all honesty, my 6-6 (2-6) assumption could well be 5-7 (1-7), since I'm basing it off the possibility (which is much greater than zero) that Nebraska "runs us out of the gym" so-to-speak. Let's say that Taylor Martinez runs for 150 yards and 2 TDs, and passes for 200+ yards and another 2 or 3 TDs, while Nebraska's Blackshirts pile 8 and 9 men in the box, holding Daniel Thomas to, say, 80 yards on 25 carries. This scenario absolutely demands that Carson Coffman throw for more than his typical 10-20 for 160 with a TD and an interception. Should he have this sort of average game, while DT is bottled up, and our defense is unable to contain Martinez and company, things will get ugly.
We're talking 40- or 50-something to MAYBE 20-something ugly. If that happens, and the team's confidence is devastated in that way, it will take quite the coaching job to avoid my 6-6 (2-6) prediction. Can Coach Snyder do it?
Certainly. There are winnable games after the Huskers roll through, but every one is also very lose-able as well, save the North Texas game. Now, on to the more exciting possibilities.
The second path — 8-4 (4-4) — is also predicated on a loss, but on a loss that bloodies the Huskers, and swells the confidence of the Cats. In this scenario, our defense contains Martinez on the passing side of things, sacking him a few times, and picking him off once or twice. The Huskers still manage to run the ball, breaking off a few long ones, but the KSU defense holds them to a few field goals, to go along with 2-3 TDs, leading to a final score of something like 26-17 or 30-23 or something like that. The Cats leave the game disappointed, but not crushed, nip KU in Lawrence, and proceed to win 3 or 4 more conference games. In this scenario, I see us beating Kansas (as I mentioned), and then losing at least one of the 3-game stretch that includes (at) Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas. I see it as very possible that we go on the road and lose two straight to Missouri and Colorado, before finishing up with a win against North Texas at home, leaving us at a respectable 8-4 (4-4), and probably about 3rd in the North.
The third path — 10-2 (6-2) — is the least likely, but most fun to think about. In it, Coach Snyder has the boys so ready to go, with an offensive and defensive game plan that is hard to fathom right now, and we beat Nebraska.
This would require that our secondary pick off Martinez a couple of times, while our front seven keeps him under constant pressure, with 3 or 4 sacks, and at least as many hurries. Frankly, I don't think we have the defensive team speed to pull it off, but I will never put anything past a Bill Snyder-coached team. This scenario requires that DT shake loose for a couple of big TD runs, and that Coffman keep the Blackshirts off-balance by completing, say, 14 of 20 passes, for 200+ yards and at least a couple of TDs. If all of these stars align, the Cats win something like 31-24, and our season is off to the races. I think we run through KU like a knife through warm butter, and navigate the rest of schedule losing only to Missouri on the road, and one other game we shouldn't lose. We win the North, as Missouri finds a way to lose 3 games, and face OU in the final Big 12 championship game. (In my football fantasies, OU is 12-0, ranked #2 in the land, and we crush them. I've read that script somewhere before.)
I see a tough loss (by 2 TDs or less) as being the most likely scenario. Placing percentages is hard, but I'll say that we "lose close" maybe 60% of the time. I would put the likelihood of our being blown out as slightly greater than the likelihood that we upset them by, say, a 25% to 15% margin or so. With all of that said, I will be rooting hard to see the Cats shuck the Huskers, and send Herbie Husker out of BSFS bloodied and beaten.
What say you all? Do you see our season hanging on this one game, as I do?
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I don't think KSU will beat NU either
The KSU D needs two more players to be really good. You know, like Lamur and Hartman (who haven’t even been the #1 or #2 players in the KSU secondary so far this season). There is some talent on D, but the lack of size up front and speed in the LBs will make it hard for the Cats to stop NU. I’ll take a green-QB over a pair of green-LBs (Slaughter and Childs) any day. However, the KSU corners should help to make NU one-dimensional, but when their one-dimension is that good, is that really much of a benefit?
I believe the KSU O-line was exposed against UCF. The O-line couldn’t deal with speed at all, and the Pelini brothers know that. Which means the O-line must impose their will on NU.
After the leadership Carson provided at the end of that game I no longer call him the weakest link of the team. It is the lack of speed and size on D that will cost us the game. Carson will have to play the game of his life against NU for the Cats to win. But at least this year the Cats have the weapons to pull it off through the air. Smith, Thompson and Quarles are a darned good trio.
I think it will be NU 27 – KSU 16. Not a bad loss, but not much fun either as the “whiny-little-girls” (my new nickname for a school that instead of learning how to play ball with the big boys [for example, KSU against OU in 2003 and against UT] is taking its ball and going home to cry to momma) then proceed to demolish anyone else in the Big XII north, until they run into OU (God, I can’t believe I would root for OU) in the last Big XII title game.
For KSU, I think after a close win like that, KSU will win a close game against KU, lose at Baylor (blech), Mizzou and CU, and win one against the orange twins from the south (probably UT), and finally beat NT to end the season.
Going 3-5 over last 8 weeks doesn’t make for a super fun season, but my hope for this team since last year was a bowl, and 7-5 would do it.
I don't measure a man's success by how high he climbs but how high he bounces when he hits bottom. - Gen. George S. Patton
Sadly
I think your projection is pretty spot-on. But GAWD! Wouldn’t it be awesome if the guys play the game of their lives and beat them? I could deal with 7-5 a lot better if it included a win over the Shuckers.
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 4, 2010 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Husker opinion here...
…(dodges thrown brick)…and I voted 7-5. Even if we do blow you guys out (which I don’t think will happen but not going to complain if it does occur) you guys still have the tools and talent to take some people out throughout the season.
From what I’ve seen so far the Big 12 doesn’t really have a whole lot of consistency going on (ourselves included) which means if you’ve got some decent playmakers and a good coach you’ll be fine in league play. I’d be baffled if, regardless of the result Thursday, you guys are struggling to reach a bowl game come season’s end.
Wow!
Husker fans can read — and write! ;) Seriously, thanks for commenting, and I think you might be right about 7-5. I’ve just gotten a bit pessimistic over these last few years, as KSU has been in a down cycle, which probably clouds my “worst-case” prediction above.
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 4, 2010 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks Doc, and welcome
Friendly opposing fans are always welcome.
You do make a good point about the good coach. I tend to take Coach Snyder for granted (considering he’s been at KSU since I was 6 and all), but when you compare him to Gill or “I’m a MAN” or Hawkins, he does look pretty good. Consistency is what he’s looking for, and I think I’m looking for it too from the offense. No one is truly consistent (look at what ISU did to TT!), so whoever can come closest will do well. But talent helps too, and NU has more than any of the other north teams.
I can’t shake how bad the team was last year on the road (0-5 in true road games). This team is decidedly better offensively, but not so much defensively, that is why I think CU (and I REALLY don’t like CU), Baylor, and particularly MU are all >50% losses.
I don't measure a man's success by how high he climbs but how high he bounces when he hits bottom. - Gen. George S. Patton
When Coach Snyder came
I was 14 when Coach took over, so I’m old enough to remember listening to ballgames with my dad when we would celebrate kicking a FG against NU, OU, and CU when we were behind 48-0 already. If we could just keep them below 50, we considered that progress. If we managed to score a TD against them, well, celebrations ensued! At some point, I want to write up a story about just how bad it WAS before Coach came along. I think it’s pretty easy to lose perspective on that.
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 4, 2010 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions
1987 ...
I remember being in the student section when we tied KU, then we had the fabulous Willie Nelson concert after a loss earlier in the year.
Fortunately we had basketball at the time …
Win or lose, I cheer for the Cats.
The time for calm and rational discourse is past, now is the time for senseless bickering -Anonymous the Younger
by Anon_the_younger on Oct 5, 2010 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions
I was in the stands around that same time period
Our junior high football coach took us up to Manhattan for a game against Oklahoma, because we ran OU’s option attack — and because he liked K-State. I was shocked how few people were there. I was 12 at the time, and we could go up and down the bleachers, in what used to be the ICAT section (don’t know if it still is), without disturbing anyone. I’d be surprised if there were even 10,000 KSU fans there, but OU had completely filled up the other side of the stadium with red. It made me sad, but a couple years later, Football Jesus came along! :)
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions
The Futility U streak ....
W 10/18/1986 29 Kansas 12 “Manhattan, KS”
L 10/25/1986 6 Missouri 17 “Manhattan, KS”
L 11/1/1986 0 Nebraska 38 “Lincoln, NE”
L 11/8/1986 3 Oklahoma St. 23 “Manhattan, KS”
L 11/15/1986 19 Iowa St. 48 “Ames, IA”
L 11/22/1986 3 Colorado 49 “Manhattan, KS”
L 9/5/1987 22 Austin Peay St. 26 “Manhattan, KS”
L 9/19/1987 14 Army (NY) 41 “Manhattan, KS”
L 9/26/1987 13 Iowa 38 “Iowa City, IA”
L 10/3/1987 25 Tulsa (OK) 37 “Manhattan, KS”
L 10/10/1987 10 Missouri 34 “Columbia, MO”
L 10/17/1987 10 Oklahoma 59 “Manhattan, KS”
L 10/24/1987 3 Nebraska 56 “Lincoln, NE”
L 10/31/1987 7 Oklahoma St. 56 “Stillwater, OK”
T 11/7/1987 17 Kansas 17 “Manhattan, KS”
L 11/14/1987 14 Iowa St. 16 “Ames, IA”
L 11/21/1987 0 Colorado 41 “Manhattan, KS”
L 9/3/1988 9 Tulsa (OK) 35 “Tulsa, OK”
L 9/10/1988 10 Iowa 45 “Manhattan, KS”
L 9/17/1988 16 Tulane (LA) 20 “New Orleans, LA”
L 10/1/1988 28 Louisiana Tech 31 “Manhattan, KS”
L 10/8/1988 21 Missouri 52 “Manhattan, KS”
L 10/15/1988 24 Oklahoma 70 “Norman, OK”
L 10/22/1988 3 Nebraska 48 “Manhattan, KS”
L 10/29/1988 27 Oklahoma St. 45 “Manhattan, KS”
L 11/5/1988 12 Kansas 30 “Lawrence, KS”
L 11/12/1988 7 Iowa St. 16 “Manhattan, KS”
L 11/19/1988 14 Colorado 56 “Boulder, CO”
L 9/9/1989 0 Arizona St. 31 “Tempe, AZ”
L 9/16/1989 8 Northern Iowa 10 “Manhattan, KS”
L 9/23/1989 20 N Illinois 37 “Manhattan, KS”
W 9/30/1989 20 North Texas 17 “Manhattan, KS”
The time for calm and rational discourse is past, now is the time for senseless bickering -Anonymous the Younger
by Anon_the_younger on Oct 5, 2010 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions
You think that's bad
I was there when Chet Peters declared war on his own students after the KU win in 1984, trying to save the goal posts.
And then there were the burning cars in Aggieville. The funny thing was, most of the arrests were Fort Riley guys.
Crazy times.
I am now channeling Will McDonald's optimism.
LOL
I remember when we beat OU for the first time in like 500 years, we carried the goalposts all the way down to Aggieville! It was just a big, happy parade, all the way!
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
I was in high school but was at that game
I was in the N end zone, the goal posts had lubricants on them. The college students wanted to throw me up on the goal posts … I declined.
The time for calm and rational discourse is past, now is the time for senseless bickering -Anonymous the Younger
by Anon_the_younger on Oct 5, 2010 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Where Do I begin?
Jeeeezzz, I do no not know where to begin, but I will try, for the uninitiated, the newbies, the young and testosterone filled fans out there, to CLEAR this ALL UP: (after all – I was a paper-boy in my youth …racing young and nubile young wives for the monthly fee of the newspaper delivery – but that is a whole ‘nother story – that is best not explored on this venue…)
1. The last time a Snyder coached team lost to the Nubs in Manhattan was 1996;
2. The stars are out of alignment, all prior knowledge is irrelevant; (12/12/12 is just around the corner).
3. Would Bear Bryant (or Dr. TOM) have been smart enough to move D Train from a QB or safety to running back?
4. There is some serious BAD KARMA floating around out there … I AM SERIOUS. …. Dr. Tom’s (the KING of the well timed fumbleruski) bitterness over that 1996 loss to a Longhorn team coached by JOHN MACKOVIC (because of a darned TRICK Play, no less,) depriving BigRed of FOUR CONSECUTIVE National Titttttles, no less) has this football thing in the GREAT PLAINS seriously out of whack – leading to excessive bitterness over (a) THAT DREADED ONE SECOND, and (b) a sense of impotence over the sickening record of abject FUTILITY of HuskerNation’s record against the dreaded PINSTRIPES of college football – the LONGHORNS;
5) MAGIC CARPET RIDE – get ready for it – if you are a true fan of COLLEGE FOOTBALL – as opposed to the FAN of MY TEAM only – a masterpiece is about to be painted – before you …. will you be there (HERE) to appreciate it – THAT is up to you. EMAW.
6) 10-2, no worse … that is for the pessimist. The optimist …. well, the stars are out of alignment.
oh hail the Purple and White
by Furnace76 on Oct 4, 2010 10:50 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Ummm...
That was, like, a K-State fan acid trip or something… Wow!
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 4, 2010 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions
That's probably the most accurate way of describing Furnace's style
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
FEAR AND LOATHING IN LAS VEGAS
by Hunter Thompson…. pick up an old paperback copy of the book. Read it. Laugh … till the cows come home. THIS IS ON THE SERIOUS ADVICE OF YOUR ATTORNEY!
oh hail the Purple and White
This surprised even me
I like to think of myself as a pretty rabid Wildcat fan who is up to speed on recent KSU football history. When I first read your comment, I just KNEW you had misspoken about the last time Nebraska won in Manhattan against a Bill Snyder coached team. There is no way, we beat them in the disaster of a season that was 2004. I had to go check, and sure enough, Nebraska was one of the few teams we beat that year, and pretty soundly, actually, 45-21.
I guess 2004 and 2005 are so far from what we became accustomed to from Bill Snyder, that I have sub-consciously removed those seasons from my memory.
So, yeah, after checking up on this fact, and seeing that when being led by HCBS, we have not lost in BSFS since 1996, I really like our chances.
GO CATS!!!
by Jeremy Sharp on Oct 5, 2010 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Don't dismiss the Bill Callahan years!
Ron Prince was to us and Bill Callahan was to them.
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
DESPITE THE ALCOHOL
The synapses in the old frontal lobe are still working when it comes to memory about K-State football ….
oh hail the Purple and White
Even if K-State loses to the Corn
I don’t see the season falling apart. There are still games against CU, KU, and North Texas…Even UT looks beatable at this point….they can’t run the ball ( K-State can’t stop the run) ….they like to air it out (K-State’s secondary is the only part of their defense that doesn’t make me want to cry) and they can’t stop the run…which obviously is good for the Cats. There’s a lot of season left after this game, but I think K-State will at least make it interesting.
by williewildcrack on Oct 4, 2010 11:15 PM CDT reply actions
That was my point with the second scenario
If we play them tough (which I think is likely), but still lose, I think 8-4 is a likely outcome. But, if we lose big, I still think it’s possible that the season goes to hell-in-a-handbasket, for at least a while.
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 4, 2010 11:19 PM CDT up reply actions
With the man formerly know as HCRP
in charge, any league loss seemed to lead to long losing streaks that killed seasons… However, Snyder is not the kind of man to get too high after a win nor to allow the team to flow too low in the valley after any loss. I am going with the mindset that anything can happen – and just might – but that realistically the ‘Cats’ chances are on the slim side for a W but pretty decent to keep it respectable. This is the same NU defense that allowed 179 yards (4.5 per rush), 175 yards (4.5 per rush), and 141 yards (3.8 per rush) to WKU (24 straight FBS losses), Washington (most overrated team this side of Notre Dame or Michigan), and South Dakota State (owner’s of an 0-4 record and 0-2 in the mighty Missouri Valley Conference). The rushing defense performance by NU to date this season is my only ray of hope shining through for KSU to keep it close and/or triumph Oct. 7th at the Bill.
'Fact. Bears eat beets. Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.' --Jim Halpert
My biggest concern
is that we let UCF hold DT to 10 carries for 20 yards in the first half. Granted, he got 12 carries for 57 yards in the second half, but if we spend a whole half spinning our wheels like that against the Shuckers, we’ll be down 20-3 (or something like that) at halftime.
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 12:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Snyder is a great coach
I’ve been to Manhattan a couple times. Seen my huskers win big (1996) and seen em lose (1998). Snyder has so many things that he can use for motivation against Nebraska this year that KSU will be in this game for 60 minutes.
I voted 9-3. I said at the beginning of this year that KSU will challenge for the north and nothing has made me change my mind. The game this Thursay is a toss up IMO. It could go either way depending upon a few bounced balls and emotion.
by Aaron Musfeldt on Oct 5, 2010 6:47 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
+1
For being one of the most reasonable, non-homeristic predictions I’ve yet seen from a Husker fan! Welcome to BOTC, Aaron!
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 6:49 AM CDT up reply actions
the only thing i haven't enjoyed about moving to the big 12
is this thursday night football. i have a test every friday morning. not only do i not get to go to lawrence to watch us crush the jayhawks, i have to miss the nebraska game.
even though i’ll be 200 freakin yards away, in trotter hall, studying physiology.
When I was a kid, I didn't want to be a doctor or a fireman. I wanted to be Super Mario. It's the most literal pipe dream I've ever had.
Ah, come on!
You can take a study break and go watch the game, can’t you?
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions
prolly not
i don’t really think it would be too wise to take the night off before a 140 point test in vet school
When I was a kid, I didn't want to be a doctor or a fireman. I wanted to be Super Mario. It's the most literal pipe dream I've ever had.
That's probably true! :)
Even still, I would be VERY tempted if I were you…
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions
i will periodically be sneaking out onto the catwalk and staring at the stadium
and running to the basement to watch the game on the tv
When I was a kid, I didn't want to be a doctor or a fireman. I wanted to be Super Mario. It's the most literal pipe dream I've ever had.
Well, that's SOMETHING at least!
Good luck on your test. I’m trying to get some Master’s classes passed online before I move back to Manhattan this spring or summer, so I feel your pain.
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions
good analysis Bailey
I really really really want to win on Thursday but the odds aren’t in our favor. But we’ve got a chance, and that’s way more than we have 2 years ago.
Thanks!
I appreciate it, and here’s hoping that we can overcome the long odds this year!
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Mr. Bailey...you pessimist :)
If I read right above, you only give us a 15% chance of winning. I think that would have been the case with a Ron Prince coached team. Snyder commented this week that effort and focus have been good. When Snyder says that, I’m encouraged. I think 60%-40% is more like it. I’m predicting a big win…it just feels right!! Its the same feeling I had before the OU game in 2003 when no one gave us a chance. I’m with furnace on this one and thinking positive (Vegascat made me a believer). NO WAY DT is held down two games in a row. Martinez will be scared in his first tough environment and f up all night. KSU 31 NU -3 (They will deduct points for Pelini’s cussing at Snyder)
Bitchslapping Texas since 1997
Man, I hope you're right!
I would probably LITERALLY cry tears of happiness if we won this game! It would be so great to send the Shuckers back up north for good with their tails between their legs! That, and Pelini is a d-bag. I forgot about his whining about the Cats supposedly running up the score in the 38-9 game. Said in whiny Pelini voiceover “We had senior walkons in the game.” Sheesh! Man I’d love to smash these guys day after tomorrow! It’s just hard for me to see a way to get there with this year’s defense.
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions
I was in Lincoln for that game...
An old lady actually cussed at me. I told her I hoped I wasn’t as pathetic as her when I was that age. Karma’s a bitch and I feel our good stuff coming around now. Pelini will be more hospitable this time around though.
Bitchslapping Texas since 1997
I was at that game as well
And the thing I remember most (more than any of the actual game on the field) was this:
I was sitting in the middle of the Nebraska faculty section, and during the 3rd quarter, I called a buddy of mine, and we were carrying on a conversation in normal voice volumes. The conversation went something like this (just my end of the conversation): “Hey man, I’m sitting in the middle of the Nebraska faculty section right now, what are you doing?…No, the game is still going on. They are playing right now actually…yeah, I know, crazy right? I can hear you just fine too. I’ve never heard it this quiet in this stadium before…ok, well, I just wanted to let you know what I was up to.”
As I hung up, I noticed about 50 pairs of Husker eyes burning a hole right through me. I guess THEY could hear my conversation as well. ;) Ok, was I somewhat of a jerk for twisting the knife like that (the whole point of the phone call was to make them aware of exactly what was happening in front of their very eyes)? Yes, probably. Would I do it again given the chance? ABSO-FRIGGING-LUTELY!!!
by Jeremy Sharp on Oct 5, 2010 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
LOL
That’s hilarious! You were able to twist the knife, as you say, without actually talking real trash to them! Good stuff!
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
oops
I hit "enter when I didn’t mean to)
I didn’t say a single word about the actual (pathetic) performance their beloved team put on display that day. But if you want my honest opinion, what I DID say hurt them even more. You know, because they are the best fans in the country, and they always support their team, regardless of the circumstances."
It was a very crafty way of cutting them deep. All the way to the bone.
And we were in no way “running up the score”. IIRC we pretty much stopped throwing the ball by halftime. They just had no answer for the Roberson/Sproles combo.
by Jeremy Sharp on Oct 5, 2010 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
OU had a problem with it too.
And they were the best team in college football ever if you asked the experts.
I'm not worried about this game setting us down a path of destruction.
Lose or lose big is “exactly” where we’d thought we’d be (hell maybe even a game ahead depending on the person). Remember getting absolutely blasted by the Air Raid last year? If you do, then you’ll remember the absolute smackdown on the Aggies the week after. Losing this game, regardless of the score, will not cause a let down from the team. Bill’s better than that.
The only thing that a lose does is put us in a big hole to win the North – which is something we were never expected to do.
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
Wouldn't that be nice, though?
If we could steal the final North Division championship from Nebraska as they’re heading out the door?
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions
The line is +12 K-State
Look there is nothing different between these two teams from last year and the result was 17-3. We coughed up a fumble on the 1 due to a well-timed helmet on the football otherwise the outcome could have been 17-10. Remember also that NU got a huge pass play right after Hartman went down with the ACL issue.
Flash forward one year and what is different really? Well, for one, no Suh who in my mind should have won the Heisman. Nebraska is starting a true freshman on the road that will throw against a better than average secondary. NU has given up over a 100+ yards to each opponent it has faced and now they get to stop DT. I expect him to run for somewhere around 150 or perhaps more. The Cats now have 3 legitimate WRs (4 with Harper) and may go to the air immediately out of the gate. We may see K-State spread NU early and run through the gaps off tackle to start before later reverting to the speed option and inside running. Snyder has yet to open up the playbook and we should see at least 2-3 screen plays and perhaps a reverse. The “Wildcat” is going to make more of an appearance in this game than in any previous. Snyder has had over a week to prepare, has watched the film, has a sense of their weaknesses and that is where we will attack. I also think we are due for a Powell TD on special teams.
Our greatest problem right now is our inability to get pressure on the QB and bend don’t break run D. The Huskers are going to run for 100-150 and will score more than one TD. I also see them throwing at least one interception and gaining over a 100 through the air. So really this game comes down to turnovers and field possession. If we are on the positive side of both we win. If we are on the negative side of just one of those we lose. This game will be close with no team winning by more than 14. Of course we could pull an Iowa State/Texas Tech like performance and go for over 50 but I just don’t see it happening for either side.
As far as the rest of the season goes. KU, BU, CU, UT or OSU (but not both), NT will be wins. MU will win in Columbia and NU pulls it out in Manhattan. +/- 1 game either way in terms of wins equals at best 9-3 or 7-5 at worst not counting a bowl game.
I agree
I’m glad to see someone finally mention Harper’s name again. I for one, am just NOT convinced that we have seen him do all he can (and will) do for us this year. The guy is too good of an all around athlete to not utilize. He was a stud QB at Wichita Northwest, how is the Wildcat formation NOT made for him? He ran for a score, threw for a score, and caught a TD pass while at Oregon. He is a true multiple threat kind of guy.
Maybe I’m way off base, but I think Harper has been underutilized up to this point for a very specific reason. And that reason is so Nebraska has not seen him do anything and therefore can’t really prepare for him.
I have said this before, and I maintain it now. You don’t show your full hand in poker until you absolutely have to. While we have come from behind in 3 of 4 games this season, we have been able to do it in a very “vanilla” way. IMO, we have not NEEDED to show our full hand just yet. This is the perfect game to open the playbook wide, and show our complete bag of tricks.
Like you said, more than a full week to gameplan has to count for something, considering who we are talking about doing the gameplanning.
It should be an exciting one, that’s for sure.
by Jeremy Sharp on Oct 5, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
If the Cats are forced to throw...
Alright, I’m a Husker fan. I follow the Huskers like priests follow Jesus and little boys. I have figured one thing out: if the Cats get behind and are forced to throw the ball at this talented, fast, and disruptive Nebraska secondary, it will be a long night for KSU. Not could, but will. And I’m not just saying that because I am a Nebraska fan. Let’s look at how the secondary has done since…oh, this time last year.
Blaine Gabbert: 17-43-2-134 (0 TDs)
Landry Jones: 26-58-5-245 (0 TDs)
Grant Gregory: 11-31-1-126 (0 TDs)….I include him because it’s the K-State game and all…
Colt McCoy: 20-36-3-184 (0 TDs)
Nick Foles: 6-20-1, 28 yds (0 TDs)
Jake Locker: 4-20-2-71 (1TD)
That amounts to 84-208-14….with just 1 touchdown. Not good stats. Also, this year, the Huskers ALREADY have 10 picks. And, so far, that has come only with pressure from the front four and the occasional linebacker blitz. I haven’t seen a Pelini dialed-up corner blitz yet. If you know Pelini, you know those will happen. They simply do.
Nebraska has one of the best special teams units in the country.
Bubble and slip screens simply won’t work because the Huskers are too fast. I’m not being a homer. Ask Missouri, Texas, and Arizona. They just play too sound of football.
If Daniel Thomas can’t get untracked, the Cats will be in trouble. Teams have had success running the ball early against the Huskers, but they also did last year. It’s the in-game adjustments that matter. Pelini does a great job. So does Snyder. I’m eager to see what happens in the first half. If the Huskers are able to run the ball on the 103rd ranked KSU rush defense, it won’t be close. That’s kinda what I want (because I want the Huskers to dominate), but I also don’t want that because the Big 12 needs strong teams to show up in this game.
I’m looking forward to a good game, and I hope your fans aren’t TOO upset about the Huskers leaving for….well, I wouldn’t say “greener” pastures. How about, uhm, un-burnt orange ones?
by Nathan Walters on Oct 5, 2010 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Quickly
The reason I give us a better-than-zero chance of beating the Shuckers is simple:
Snyder >>>>>> Pelini
It’s not close, it’s not a discussion, Pelini isn’t even in the conversation with Coach Snyder as far as coaching acumen goes.
Also, do not underestimate our receivers. They’re good enough to beat your secondary. The question is, will Carson be able to get it to them. But don’t think that the Shuckers can beat us simply by putting 8 and 9 in the box and shutting down DT. K-State’s biggest issue is going to be stopping the Husker’s offense somehow, which I’m not convinced we can do.
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions
As I recall OU was the greatest team of all time and then...
If NU is so good how did they let 0-4 South Dakota State stay with them for 4 quarters. I suppose Texas thought UCLA was going to be a pushover this year in Austin. We just have to let the game play out and see what will happen.
31 - 17, Nubs
Unless Snyder brings a qb out that no one has seen all year and introduces him to the college football world on Thursday night, I just don’t see this being close. State will SLOW the game down to limit possessions and the Bugeaters will employ the 9 in the box Defense to limit Thomas.
I am one University of Kansas football fan that will be hoping State knocks off the Bugeaters and sends the most overated Top 10 football team in the country back to stinkin Lincoln with its corn shoved in the most unappropriate place.
Rock Chalk Jayhawk, KU!
Even the Hawk fans are cheering for us!
Maybe Karma IS on our side this year! :)
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
I think everybody in the Big 12 (well maybe sans CU)
will be cheering for any team to beat Nebraska. I know I am – except for maybe Mizzou only if a Mizzou wins gets us in the Big 12 championship game as highly unlikely that scenario is….
Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.
An unlikely inbiber of the Purple Koolaide
See, I am not the only one to drink the grog!
Go to paragraph #10 in this story from Kirk Bohls of the Austin Statesman:
http://www.statesman.com/sports/9-things-and-1-crazy-prediction-for-this-951780.html
oh hail the Purple and White
Yeah
I saw that in a fanshot earlier today. While I don’t think there’s much of a possibility of it happening, MAN it would be great if it did! :)
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 5, 2010 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions
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