To blatantly rip-off another blog and showcase some entirely unrealistic and undeserved optimism, I'm going to speculate on what our path is to the Big XII Title Game.
So let's get down to business. Three things need to happen:
- KSU wins out: 15% chance. I'm sure I"m being too optimistic with that number, but I think our biggest remaining challenge is at Missouri. Assuming we spring the upset against OSU, we have a manageable remaining schedule. I think Texas is beatable, especially since we are at home. So is Colorado. If we upset Missouri then I don't think we'll have a problem with North Texas. Even if we don't upset Missouri I don't think we'll have a problem with North Texas. Famous last words.
- NU loses two more games: 40% chance. I think it is highly possible they lose to Missouri this weekend (I even expect it). But the rest of their schedule is pretty weak. It will take some big upset, and I think ISU or aTm have the best chance of providing that even though it is a small chance.
- Mizzou loses two more games: 10% chance. Here is the rub. Even if 1 and 2 fall our way, Missouri would still be in front of us unless they have another upset. After Nebraska they have a pretty easy schedule. ISU or TT might give us what we need, but I doubt it.
In short, why did I even write this post? It just made me more despondent, as we obviously have no realistic or even imaginative shot at the Big 12 Title Game after our loss to Baylor. I was even trying to be optimistic with the percentages, and they still came out looking really bad. Most surprising to me is that ISU has a clearer path to the title game than we do, even though we beat them. All they have to do really is win their own games, and it will pretty much sort itself out.
So, I guess, just take it one game at a time, like HCBS says. Let's improve to 1-0 this week.