Bring On The Predictions!
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 13, 2010 9:51 PM CDT
in Football
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PrintEarlier this week, I wrote about why this game means so much to me on a personal level. Now, it's time to put our predictions out there for you to marvel at or scorn, depending upon your perspective. Owen over at RockChalkTalk has put together two Round Table discussions, one with their guys (which can be found through the previous link), and one which we will link to in the morning with the contributors here at BOTC. For now, I want to go on the record with my own prediction for the game, after the jump.
The way I see things playing out, how the Jayhawks decide to play will have everything to do with the final score of Thursday night's game. If the Cats come out, control the ball with Daniel Thomas, while mixing in the play-action game, this will not be close, no matter how KU plays. If they play well -- say, even, Georgia Tech well -- and KSU plays like they're capable, the Cats win 27-16 or something similar. If, however, the Hawks come out and play a sub-par game, this will get ugly quickly. I'm thinking something like 41-10 ugly. The long and short of it is, neither of these teams is anything really special. But, while KSU has generally played decent football all year (with one glaring exception) KU has been wildly inconsistent, while demonstrating the ability to play decent football and win a tough game (Georgia Tech), they've been mostly pretty bad this year (NDSU and Baylor particularly). I may regret writing this, but no facet of their game scares me at all.
On the Kansas State side of things, I just can't see our boys laying another egg. Coach Snyder will have them coached up and ready, so -- as I mentioned -- it will be all about how KU decides to play. If they play well, it's a bit closer. If they play poorly, it's a blow-out. Since the Hawks are so inconsistent, I simply can't peg them for how they're going to play. Is it possible that KU shuts down DT, and pulls off an upset? Sure. If Coffman plays his normal, mediocre-but-acceptable game, though, and is able to loosen the defense up even a bit, that shouldn't be a concern. And, defensively, I just don't see KU having the horses to make us pay for our lack of defensive speed like Nebraska did. Todd Reesing ain't walking through that door, gents!
Anyways, formalities aside, here's my prediction: KSU 34 KU 13, (simply the best- and worst-case scenarios from above averaged out) DT gets back on track, with 23 carries, for 150 or so yards, and 2 touchdowns. Our quarterback (whether Coffman or Collin Klein/Sammuel Lamur) runs for one TD and passes for one as well as completing 12 to 14 passes for about 175-200 yards.
So, what say you? Close one? Big-time, mojo-establishing blow-out? Let me know in the comments!
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I just want this game to hurry up and get here.
If I see one more article about Taylor Martinez, I think I may spew.
SPEW, I SAY!
by checklight on Oct 13, 2010 9:59 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Amen!
I don’t think the national media fully understands how SLOW our defense is.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 13, 2010 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions
I think you may be
a touch too optimistic on the final score. With the way K-State plays: running the ball and being conservative on D also it just doesn’t lead to blowouts. I think for K-State to win by any large amount that would mean the Wildcats special teams has made a couple of scoring plays.
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You might be right
But, I think KU is a poor enough squad (on both sides of the ball) that we could actually lay the wood to them. If DT gets rolling, and Coffman (or—please God!—Collin or Sammy) can get it out to our solid receiving corps a few times, we’ll win pretty big, I think.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 13, 2010 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Chris Harper
needs to be more involved tomorrow. Baylor killed them just throwing it out quickly and letting WR make yards, with Smith out for the season it’s time for Harper to start getting ALOT more touches.
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Very MUCH agreed!
From everything I’ve read about Harper, he has ENORMOUS potential as a playmaker.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 13, 2010 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't like to do it...
…but I agree with what Mitch Holthus said today on 810. The first quarter of this game is huge. Both of these teams are emotionally fragile, and an early lead for either team could be devastating for the other. If K-State jumps to a 10-0 lead after the first quarter, I could see the negativity building on KU’s sideline to the point where a blowout is possible. Of course, the reverse is also possible, and we all know how utterly terrible K-State is at playing from behind.
K-State has to start fast tomorrow. A slow start could spell our doom.
We'll carry the banner high!
Bring On The Cats
I don't know, TB.
Having watched KU play Baylor and Georgia Tech, I just don’t see how they have the horses to blow us out, no matter if we don’t play well in the first quarter. And I really REALLY trust Coach Snyder to not let the guys come into tomorrow’s game “emotionally fragile”, as Mitch puts it.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 13, 2010 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Kansas scored well on Georgia Tech
and their offense is generally more difficult to stop than what K-State runs. Tech doesn’t have a D. Thomas though.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
KU only put up 28 pts on GT, didn't they?
I might be remembering this incorrectly.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 14, 2010 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Yep. 28 points against a team that primarily runs the ball.
Not a bad output when you factor in how the clock runs almost non-stop in their games and their ability to eat that clock while on offense.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
I don't remember it being exceptionally good.
What was so great about it? Made all of the extra points and didn’t get any punts blocked (and that might be exceptional for the Jayhawks) but it’s not like we ran back two kicks or anything like that.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
CB98 is probably referring to
the fact that GT’s punter averaged 28 yards per punt, while the Hawks’ punter averaged almost 44, including uncorking a 66-yarder. A plus-16 yards per punt average flips field position big time. GT punted 4 times, and KU punted 5.
To put in perspective how huge that differential is, let’s posit 9 straight 3-and-outs, with 9 yards gained on each. If KU were starting on their own 10-yard line (terrible field position, by any measure), at the end of the exchange of 3-and-outs, Ga Tech would
KU Poss1: KU10 to KU19+44 =
GT Poss1: GT37 to GT46+28 =
KU Poss2: KU26 to KU35+44 =
GT Poss2: GT21 to GT30+28 =
KU Poss3: KU42 to GT49+44 =
GT Poss3: GT05 to GT14+28 =
KU Poss4: GT42 to GT33+ 44 = probably kick FG, pooch, or go for it.
GT Poss4: GT01 to GT10 + 28 =
KU Poss5: GT38 to GT29 = probable FG.
So, even though there weren’t any Spec. Teams TDs, or blocked kicks, KU definitely DID have a strong day in special teams.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 14, 2010 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Not sure how averaging 44 makes it an exceptional day though when his averages are all the same through 5 games.
NDSU; 43.3
Georgia Tech: 43.4
So. Miss: 44.4
NMSU; 44.5
Baylor: 43.8
Is it helpful? Yes. Doesn’t look like an exception to me though.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Don't you see it?
The 44 isn’t the point. The +16 IS the point. KU was gaining an average of 16 yards per punt exchange that game. That’s freaking insane, which was why I posed that hypothetical, to demonstrate HOW insane it was to you. That very rarely happens.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 14, 2010 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Look gents its pretty simple...
KU had much better returns and much better punts. The flipped the field on GT to the point where they had to march almost the length of the field while the Jayhawks won the field position game. I also remember at least one great run back by KU at a critical point in the game that allowed them to answer a GT score. IMO G-Tech thought they could just come into Lawrence and go through the motions, run their vanilla triple option and walk away with a win. KU on the other hand played more aggressively, with more passion and won the day in almost all phases of the game. The was, by far, their most complete game of the season.
by Catbacker98 on Oct 14, 2010 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
+1
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 14, 2010 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Hmm, looking at drive data from the game on espn.com
GTech’s averaged starting on their own 31.
KU started on their own 28.
GTech did average about 5 more yards per drive than Kansas which was covered up by Rojas. A punter that has averaged 10+ yards over the opponent three of the five games this year. I still fail to see how that is “exceptional”. Did it play a part in Kansas winning? Of course it did and I haven’t said otherwise.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
In that game,
the difference was SIXTEEN yards per drive — which is MONSTROUS! That’s over 1 1/2 first downs gained, JUST from your punt yardage differential.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 14, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
16 yards per drive?
No. GTech punted 4 times. Kansas punted 5. The numbers I stated above are actual numbers from the game.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Fine, have it your way...
KU sucked in all aspects of the game and still somehow won. :-)
by ChrisP Wildcat on Oct 14, 2010 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Seriously, Warden
They punted 4 times, for an average of 28 yards. KU punted 5 times for an average of 44. Even if you equalize them, that STILL MEANS THAT KU GAINED 16 YARDS PER POSSESSION!!! Why is that so difficult to understand? I why are you trying so hard to disprove that KU had a really good day in special teams?
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 14, 2010 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Did they punt after each possession?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Good lord!
It was a freaking hypothetical, to show you how big an effect such a disparity has on the game! I mean, seriously, Warden, what is your point here?!?
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 14, 2010 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Give a compliment get a thesis?
I’m still scratching my head as to why. Oh well, let’s see how they handle Powell.
Yes, very confusing.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 14, 2010 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Need some type of hype for tonight's game
right?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Its the whole picture
Not that the punting by itself by KU was exceptional, or the return of GTs punts being exceptional, but the two combined to be a solid day.
That is the point, the ENTIRE punting unit (receiving and kicking) was good.
In other words, KU was gaining yards by punting and holding them to a three-and-out, without having to do anything offensively.
by ChrisP Wildcat on Oct 14, 2010 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
28 pts sounds like a lot to me
It is certainly more than our offense tends to put out.
by ChrisP Wildcat on Oct 14, 2010 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm with TB
I haven’t been getting down on the program like a lot of people after getting spanked by NU, however I’m not sipping the koolaid either. In my opinion, we aren’t set up to blow a team out. DTrain is too slow in the open field to break off a bunch of big runs, and Carson can’t throw the ball downfield. So we grind it out and control the ball, which doesn’t exactly equate to a ton of points. We have to be able to run the ball or this game is gonna be way to close for comfort.
There's a misconception
that DT is slow (or at least not fast) for some reason. Maybe it’s because he is such a bruising back or something, but coming out of Juco, he 4.48 forty, so the kid can flat MOVE in the open field. Unfortunately, he’s just not getting that many chances to show it so far this season.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 14, 2010 1:12 AM CDT up reply actions
That is true, but...
he has never had that breakaway speed. I’ve seen him break into the open field a couple of times and get chased down from behind.
Also, against NU, he just wasn’t as quick into the hole as I’m used to seeing him. I believe that game was an aberration, but considering that was the first time many national eyes looked at him, it certainly gives the impression he is a slow back.
by ChrisP Wildcat on Oct 14, 2010 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think KSU is emotionally fragile, they're just poorly coached on D, and are hamstrung by the QB on O
I still can’t make up my mind about what is going to happen. KU can win this game, and KSU can lose it. I can’t even make a prediction.
I don't measure a man's success by how high he climbs but how high he bounces when he hits bottom. - Gen. George S. Patton
I think we'll see a different attitude from our D tomorrow.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 13, 2010 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Let us hope...
because each week it seems the defense has looked slower and slower ever since the opener against UCLA. I still think speed in the secondary isn’t as much of an issue; speed at linebacker is. The problem for the secondary against Nebraska was poor pursuit angles (something Vic Koenning did a remarkable job in addressing from the disastrous ’08 defensive leftovers). Harold and Prizell Brown are quick on the D-line, but the rest of them along our front are not. Slow, plus lacking in size is not a good combo up front.
by CT-K-Stater on Oct 14, 2010 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Speaking from seeing the guy in person in high school
at Wichita Northwest, my school’s (Bishop Carroll) rival, saw what he could do as a playmaker. Now those of you who are wanting to see him at QB, I am sorry but based off of what I saw of him in high school I don’t think I can agree with it. I think he his a substantial playmaker in the open field and has the speed that can hurt defenses, but from what I saw of him I did not think he was the greatest of QB’s in his time in high school. Now, granted he may have not had the best team around him or the best coach either so I think with a coach like Snyder and a decent staff I could more than be eating those words at some point. Anyway, my point is, that I do think he needs to get more touches like is being mentioned above. He has the potential to take many a plays to the house if he makes one or two guys miss. He did it multiple times at Oregon, one in particular that sticks out to me is the on against ASU where he caught a slant and just outran the secondaries angles and beat them for a touchdown. All this being said, I don’t think any of it makes a lick of difference if we don’t start getting some play action in the mix and start getting someone in the backfield that can throw worth a damn. I am a little hesitant to make a prediction on the game this weekend having not ever actually seen KU play this season. From what I hear about them they are far from scary in any way, but in a rivalry game in their house anything is possible. I’m going to go ahead and say that we win somewhere in the ballpark of 24-14, if our defense doesn’t play all that well. If our defense plays well and our offense does mix it up i could see it somewhere around 31-7 or worse
The thing is,
I’ve noticed that the truly great talent that sometimes comes out of Kansas high school football sometimes doesn’t blossom UNTIL college. The reason I think this is, is that the level of play in this state is so much lower than it is in places like Texas and Louisiana. In other words, many times the great players from our state “play down” to their competition in high school. I’m not saying this makes your observations on C. Harper wrong, I’m just giving you my perspective.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 14, 2010 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh I understand that completely
We had one of the best defenses in the league and we still only got to the state championship one time since the 70’s so I’m not at all saying that it’s great, but i really do think that he is more of a runner than he is a passer. I could see him used in some sort of wildcat or on quick swing passes. Basically I’d rather see him in the open field with quick screen plays or something like that to get his speed in the open away from the d-line and linebackers rather than seeing him in the backfield dropping back for passes and then trying to run.
From what I hear
his arm strength is good, but his accuracy not as much. Still, I’d like to see them be creative with how they use him. Line him up wide sometimes, in the Wildcat, with DT beside him, in the slot, motioning across the formation, all of that. The more I hear about him, the more I think he’s about to explode.
"Everybody gets one chance to do something great. Most people never take the chance, either 'cause they're too scared, or because they don't recognize it when it spits on their shoes. This is your big chance, and you shouldn't let it go by..."
www.bringonthecats.com
by K. Scott Bailey on Oct 14, 2010 1:01 AM CDT up reply actions
That is a definite possibility
and I completely agree with the accuracy thing. Yes fundamentals that the QB position can be taught, but there comes a point when you just have to have the natural talent of a QB (case in point Carson Coffman). I think that he could be very effective in some trick plays or as a different look for a defense (whether it be in a wildcat or a two back formation with some sort of half back pass or something) I just don’t think I trust him as a guy to be the one dropping back and delivering passes game in and game out.
Here's a thought
Throw it out to Harper in the flat (backwards of course), then let him fling it down field to a wide open Quarles or Thompson. KU knows we’ve scouted the Baylor game and saw the weakness in their wide defense, so they sell out, then get fooled deep.
A Coin Flip
I think we are still wondering what happened to KU’s talent from the success of Mangino and Co. a couple years back. If this game was in Manhattan, it would be a no brainer. KU’s offense is a little more diverse that ours, but we have an edge on talent. What frustrates me regarding the Defense…they create no turnovers. Zilch. We have to pressure the young QB. You cannot let him stand back there all night and allow his confidence to build. Southern Mississippi tape would prove that. I think the difference could come in the Special Teams; KU’s had at least two punts blocked, maybe more. As Keitzman said, the edge goes to KSU since Snyder is in his 2nd year with these players, where as Gill is still trying to figure out which pieces go where. I wish I had everyone confidence going into tonight, but in my opinion it’s a coin flip.
KSU hasn't blown anybody worth while yet this year
so I will be a pessimist here and say it will be a close game, similar to last year.
State 31 -- KU 9
Will not be a ballgame unless State keeps KU in it in the 1st quarter and allows the Jayhawks to stick around.
Snyder > Gill
Rock Chalk Jayhawk, KU!
Thanks!
Glad to know we don’t have to worry about a tough crowd tonight.
by ChrisP Wildcat on Oct 14, 2010 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
It will be a tough crowd (as tough as KU can get).
That is not saying alot as the crowd in Lawrence for KU Football is never hostile or loud and the students will probably be half out after halftime, but I will be cheering my lungs out for The University of Kansas Football team; however, all indications lead to State winning. Favored by Vegas, Better established Coaching Staffs, Better Running Back, Older at the Key Skill positions, KU 2-3 and KSU 4-1.
Rock Chalk Jayhawk, KU!
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