BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.09.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.8.2010)


 

A quick primer for those of you who might be new to the site since I last did these:

  1. As you can see above, the chief purpose of this feature is track the Big 12 standings in case you're lazy like me and don't want to go look them up.
  2. I also use a variety of projection systems to offer real-time predicted outcomes of all upcoming games, updated biweekly after each "round" of conference games. In addition, I progressively track my cumulative pick record and tweak the system every off-season.
  3. Finally, I offer commentary on the NCAA hopes of conference teams (won't start with this until a little later in the season).

You can expect these on Sunday (after Saturday games) and Thursday/Friday (after Big Monday, Super Tuesday and Wednesday games). Hit the jump to see what the conference looks like as we head into the first week of games, starting tomorrow.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 16-0 NCAA 12 3 2 W-14 Pittsburgh none Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 15-1 NCAA 4 1 1 W-14 Temple none Bill Self
Kansas State 3 13-3 NCAA 7 12 8 W-10 Xavier Ole Miss Frank Martin
Baylor 4 9-7 NCAA 53 45 26 W-8 Xavier Alabama Scott Drew
Missouri 5 9-7 NCAA 72 9 30 W-7 Old Dominion Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas Tech 6 8-8 NCAA 32 78 54 W-2 Washington Wichita State Pat Knight
Texas A&M 7 7-9 NIT 42 37 31 W-2 Clemson Washington Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State 8 7-9 NIT 37 64 53 W-1 Pacific Tulsa Travis Ford
Nebraska 9 5-11 NIT 96 77 82 W-3 USC Creighton Doc Sadler
Iowa State 10 5-11 NIT 143 67 81 L-1 Bradley Northwestern Greg McDermott
Colorado 11 1-15 None 220 124 141 W-1 Miami University Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Oklahoma 12 1-15 None 131 93 101 W-1 Arizona San Diego Jeff Capel

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

I'll be brief, since this part is so late in coming. Basically, my aim this year is to be more accurate, and I think incorporating a third statistical perspective — in the form of RealTimeRPI's GAMER model (see below) — instead of flipping a virtual coin, should help in that regard.

The first slice at prediction isn't too surprising. Kansas, Kansas State and Texas clearly have separated themselves from the rest of the Big 12 thus far. That dropoff after the Wildcats is not unusual, by the way. There was a similar dropoff last season in the first edition of this feature, after Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri did the most damage in the non-conference season.

The next six teams will be in a dogfight for the next two months, for anywhere from three to five NCAA Tournament bids. I give Baylor the upper hand for now because of their guards, their post presence and their rugged schedule, but Texas Tech is in good shape if it can just figure out how to win on the road. Missouri probably will have to go at least 10-6 because of the weaker schedule, but the Tigers certainly are capable of that when eight of those games will come at home.

It's hard to know what to make of the Aggies, but their early non-con was good and I still think they have the necessary talent. But Derrick Roland's injury makes it a crapshoot until we have a larger data set by which to judge their reaction to that tragic event. As for Oklahoma State and Nebraska, get back to me when they actually beat an RPI Top 100 opponent.

(Note: This was written before Oklahoma State's win over Texas Tech.)

Iowa State is an enigma. Everyone keeps expecting them to break through and become the dark horse to end all dark horses, but I just don't see it. They had their chances and missed on all four of them. Colorado is improving, but the schedule just gets brutal from here. I don't see how they can have much success, but they should have more than last season. Oklahoma simply is a goddamn train wreck, and at this point, I'd be shocked if the Sooners even finished with a winning record.

 

Key

I took the results and plugged them into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order for all teams, for your viewing pleasure. It's slightly more scientific than just plugging in wins randomly, but less systematic than Pomeroy's system, so it's right up my alley. Hopefully, some readers will find this information useful/interesting/yet another way to waste time at work.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
Colorado
@ Texas (GPS)
K-State (GS)
@ Missouri (P)
Nebraska
@ A&M (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (GPS)
Tech
@ O-State (GPS)
01.11-01.13
O-State (GS)
@ Oklahoma (P)
A&M
@ K-State (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Colorado
Texas (GPS)
@ I-State
Kansas (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Missouri (P)
@ Tech (GS)
01.16
Missouri (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Colorado
O-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
A&M
@ Texas (GPS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
01.18-01.20
Texas (GPS)
@ K-State
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
Colorado
@ O-State (GPS)
Baylor
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Tech (GPS)
01.23
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ A&M (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
01.25-01.27
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Baylor
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
I-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
Nebraska (GPS)
@ Colorado
01.30
Oklahoma
@ Nebraska (GPS)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
02.01-02.03
Texas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Kansas (GPS)
@ Colorado
A&M (G)
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
02.06
O-State
@ Tech (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ I-State
Missouri (GPS)
@ Colorado
Baylor
@ A&M (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Nebraska
@ Kansas (GPS)
02.08-02.10
Kansas
@ Texas (GPS)
Tech (GS)
@ Oklahoma (P)
Baylor (GS)
@ Nebraska (P)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.13
Missouri (P)
@ Baylor (GS)
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Texas (GPS)
A&M (P)
@ Tech (GS)
Colorado
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
02.15-02.17
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
O-State
@ I-State (GPS)
Oklahoma (G)
@ Colorado (PS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
02.20
Baylor
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (G)
@ I-State (PS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Nebraska
K-State (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
02.22-02.24
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
02.27
I-State (GPS)
@ Colorado
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor
@ Tech (GPS)
Missouri (GP)
@ I-State (S)
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Tech (GPS)
@ Colorado
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
X
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