BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.30.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.29.2010)


 

Well, the Big Three remained the Big Three, but Oklahoma State is coming on strong. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cowboys replace Baylor in next week's rankings, especially if they can snap Missouri's streak.

After that is a muddied middle of teams with either two or three conference wins.

That middle will sort itself out eventually, although I still like Mizzou to rise to the top of the pack.

And then there's the Three Northtards, or as I like to call them, Dopey, Shorty and Zero.

Those were references to marijuana, thin rosters and conference wins, in case you didn't catch my esoteric thinking. I think you can figure out the identities from there.

Anyhow, let's at least give the Unholy Trinity a round of applause for trying.

Follow the jump for my early report card on the conference season, as well as my usual analysis and predictions.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 15-1 NCAA 9 6 4 W-1 Michigan State Connecticut Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 15-1 NCAA 2 1 1 W-5 Temple Tennessee Bill Self
Kansas State 3 12-4 NCAA 5 10 7 W-1 Texas Missouri Frank Martin
Baylor 4 11-5 NCAA 33 21 25 L-1 Xavier Colorado Scott Drew
Missouri 5 10-6 NCAA 45 12 21 L-1 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Texas A&M 6 6-10 NIT 35 49 46 L-1 Clemson Washington Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State 7 6-10 NIT 27 45 38 W-3 Kansas State Oklahoma Travis Ford
Iowa State 8 5-11 NIT 115 81 81 L-3 Bradley Oklahoma Greg McDermott
Colorado 9 5-11 None 132 95 102 W-1 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Texas Tech 10 4-12 NIT 34 83 70 L-1 Washington Wichita State Pat Knight
Oklahoma 11 4-12 None 82 91 88 W-1 Oklahoma State San Diego Jeff Capel
Nebraska 12 3-13 None 138 92 97 L-5 Tulsa Colorado Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

Since everyone basically has played 20 games, or roughly two-thirds of the regular season, I thought this might be a good time to hand out some early grades. Clearly, I'm grading on a high curve.

Kansas: A

Single blemish notwithstanding, this is a no-duh pick, right?

Texas: A-

But for last week, this easily would be an A or an A+.

Kansas State: B

Yes, we're having a historic season, but I have very high standards. The OSU loss keeps this from being an A.

Oklahoma State: B-

The schedule has been week, but this team's resume still is surprisingly strong.

Baylor: C+

Things looked good early, but they've hit a slide lately. Not to mention the Colorado loss...

Missouri: C

The good: Beating us. The bad: Losing to OU. The ugly: Losing to Oral Roberts and the Big Monday disaster.

Texas A&M: C-

About as well as could be expected after what happened in Seattle, but man, what a bad loss that turned into.

Texas Tech: C-

Great start, ugly middle, starting to recuperate, then ran into Texas. Uneven is the best word to describe them.

Iowa State: D-

There's something rotten in the state of Iowa...

Nebraska: D-

The German invasion didn't save this talent-devoid team. Today might be their best chance for a win all season.

Oklahoma: D-

Ugly, ugly, ugly. But there have been a few bright moments, such as the consecutive wins over OSU and MU.

Colorado: F

The Buffs are much improved, but go back and look at the non-con losses. This still is a very mediocre team.

 

GAMER: No changes.

Pomeroy: Now has Oklahoma State and Texas A&M both losing to Texas Tech in Lubbock.

Sagarin: Now has Iowa State beating Nebraska in Ames and losing to Colorado in Boulder.

 

Self-Evaluation

Our beloved Wildcats once again kept me from completing a perfect segment of game picks.

Not that I'm complaining, mind you. I guess the lesson of the past week is to pick the home team, unless they're playing the Wildcats or they are the Wildcats.

Which leads to my picks: All of the home teams, except the Wildcats. I hate to say it, but the computer numbers for KU are staggering.

Let's hope GAMER is the correct model tonight and that the longest winning streak in the league ends as a result.

And if that happens, then let's also hope that the league's longest losing streak also ends tonight, or else Tuesday in Lincoln could be Oklahoma State II: The Letdowns Continue. The last thing I want to face, either off a loss or a win, is an 0-6 Nebraska team, at home, with its back against a wall.

Cumulative pick record: 26-7 (.788)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
65 A&M
88 K-State
90 Texas
83 I-State
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
01.16
4-2 (.667)
70 O-State
83 Baylor
87 K-State
81 Colorado
63 Tech
89 Kansas
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
01.18-01.20
5-0 (1.000)
62 Texas
71 K-State
62 Oklahoma
65 A&M
78 Colorado
90 O-State
71 I-State
78 Tech
75 Baylor
81 Kansas
01.23
4-1 (.800)
63 Colorado
67 A&M
84 Kansas
61 I-State
73 O-State
69 K-State
53 Nebraska
70 Missouri
65 Oklahoma
75 Tech
01.25-01.27
5-1 (.833)
65 Missouri
84 Kansas
76 K-State
74 Baylor
60 Nebraska
72 Colorado
84 I-State
89 Oklahoma
69 A&M
76 O-State
83 Tech
95 Texas
01.30
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
02.01-02.03
Texas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Kansas (GPS)
@ Colorado
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
A&M
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.06
Missouri (GPS)
@ Colorado
K-State (GPS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Baylor (GP)
@ A&M (S)
O-State (P)
@ Tech (GS)
02.08-02.10
Kansas (P)
@ Texas (GS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Nebraska
02.13
Colorado
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Texas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M
@ Tech (GPS)
02.15-02.17
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Colorado (GPS)
O-State (G)
@ I-State (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas (GS)
@ Missouri (P)
02.20
A&M (G)
@ I-State (PS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (GP)
@ O-State (S)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.22-02.24
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.27
I-State (G)
@ Colorado (PS)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Tech
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (GPS)
@ A&M
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
Texas (GS)
@ Baylor (P)
Tech (S)
@ Colorado (GP)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
X
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