BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.25.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.24.2010)


 

Parity truly is the watchword in the Big 12 this season. Given that Kansas should beat Missouri tonight, that will leave just two teams in the conference with fewer than two conference losses.

None of which makes me feel any better about what happened in the Octagon of Self-Inflicted Doom on Saturday.

Oklahoma State and Texas A&M are going to run headlong into each other this week, so it would be really nice if we can go steal one in Waco. But Frank Martin never has beat Baylor, so that might be asking too much of this squad.

The good news is that we're still on track for a Top 4 seed and a bye, though. I will elaborate on this point after the jump.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 15-1 NCAA 9 6 4 L-2 Pittsburgh Connecticut Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 15-1 NCAA 2 1 1 W-4 Temple Tennessee Bill Self
Baylor 3 12-4 NCAA 31 20 20 W-1 Xavier Colorado Scott Drew
Kansas State 4 11-5 NCAA 7 13 12 L-1 Texas Missouri Frank Martin
Missouri 5 10-6 NCAA 45 10 22 W-1 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Iowa State 6 6-10 NIT 111 80 77 L-2 Bradley Northwestern Greg McDermott
Texas A&M 7 6-10 NIT 38 47 45 W-2 Clemson Washington Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State 8 6-10 NIT 29 49 39 W-2 Kansas State Oklahoma Travis Ford
Colorado 9 4-12 None 150 96 109 L-3 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Texas Tech 10 4-12 NIT 34 88 72 W-2 Washington Wichita State Pat Knight
Oklahoma 11 4-12 None 87 92 92 L-2 Oklahoma State San Diego Jeff Capel
Nebraska 12 3-13 None 122 87 94 L-4 USC Creighton Doc Sadler

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

K-State's surprising home loss triggered a precipitous fall to a No. 4 seed and three extra losses. Baylor benefited the most, picking up two wins and moving up to fill the void.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State saw its numbers rise across the board, although a funky predicted tiebreaker situation prevented the Cowboys from advancing up the seed line at all.

The other significant movement was Texas A&M losing a predicted win due to the negative computer impact that comes with playing Colorado. That allowed Iowa State to slip upward one notch.

In other changes, Texas' numbers continue to plummet across the board (no surprise), while Texas Tech is looking very bullish all of a sudden. I'm currently showing them with a predicted 16-14 overall record, which, when coupled with the conference's strength, should be good enough for the NIT.

Oklahoma and Nebraska continue to look like crap. The game in Lincoln between those two will be like the evil soul-mate of the anticipated showdown between Kansas and Texas in Austin. Dr. Naismith might even shed a tear from heaven.

A quick note on the tournament predictions: No, I don't really think the Big 12 will get just five teams in. I suspect the biggest flaw in the model right now is that it is failing to predict games such as the one we just had. There are some coin-flip situations here and there, and it's consistently awarding those to the Big Four (BU, KU, KSU, UT) right now.

But just as Oklahoma State stole one from us, so too shall Texas A&M and Texas Tech steal some from the others.

As soon as one of those three hits a projected record of 8-8*, I'll move them up to the "big boy" tournament -- even though they might be on the bubble all the way to Selection Sunday. I tend to think being in the Big 12 will give most of them an edge that other candidates will lack. Okie Lite obviously already has a super-good quality win, and if the Aggies can pick off Kansas or the Red Raiders can pick off Texas, so will they.

Right now, I'm thinking six or seven teams make it, but if Tech can get on a little roll, eight bids are within reach. The really crazy thing would be if someone like Oklahoma got hot in Kansas City and stole the automatic bid. I think we'd get eight for sure in that scenario.

*Oklahoma State might even be in the conversation at 7-9. That would be good for an overall regular-season record of 19-11, which would put them in the last four in, at best. But the Cowboys will have a very high RPI again and at least one RPI Top 25 win -- and they still get KU and Texas at home...

GAMER: Now has K-State losing to Baylor and Colorado losing to Nebraska in Boulder.

Pomeroy: Now has Baylor beating Texas in Waco and Texas A&M in College Station.

Sagarin: Now has K-State losing to Baylor in Waco and Kansas in Manhattan, Iowa State losing to Nebraska in Ames, and Colorado losing to Texas Tech.

 

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 home teams went 9-1 last week. Guess who the 1 was?

Yup, I would have run the table if the Cats simply could have bothered to show up Saturday.

In fact, I would have had three perfect sets of games so far, but in two cases, K-State screwed it up.

90-percent accuracy still is encouraging, though, so guess what I'm doing this week? Picking all the home teams!

Cumulative pick record: 21-6 (.778)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
65 A&M
88 K-State
90 Texas
83 I-State
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
01.16
4-2 (.667)
70 O-State
83 Baylor
87 K-State
81 Colorado
63 Tech
89 Kansas
61 Missouri
66 Oklahoma
56 I-State
53 Nebraska
67 A&M
72 Texas (OT)
01.18-01.20
5-0 (1.000)
62 Texas
71 K-State
62 Oklahoma
65 A&M
78 Colorado
90 O-State
71 I-State
78 Tech
75 Baylor
81 Kansas
01.23
4-1 (.800)
63 Colorado
67 A&M
84 Kansas
61 I-State
73 O-State
69 K-State
53 Nebraska
70 Missouri
65 Oklahoma
75 Tech
01.25-01.27
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska (G)
@ Colorado (PS)
I-State
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
01.30
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State (G)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
02.01-02.03
Texas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Kansas (GPS)
@ Colorado
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
A&M
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.06
Missouri (GPS)
@ Colorado
K-State (GPS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Baylor (GP)
@ A&M (S)
O-State (P)
@ Tech (GS)
02.08-02.10
Kansas (P)
@ Texas (GS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Nebraska
02.13
Colorado
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Texas (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (P)
@ Tech (GS)
02.15-02.17
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Colorado (GPS)
O-State (G)
@ I-State (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
Texas (GS)
@ Missouri (P)
02.20
A&M (G)
@ I-State (PS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (GP)
@ O-State (S)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
02.22-02.24
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Nebraska (S)
@ I-State (GP)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
02.27
I-State (GS)
@ Colorado (P)
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Tech
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (GPS)
@ A&M
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
Texas (GS)
@ Baylor (P)
Tech (S)
@ Colorado (GP)
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
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