BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.16.10


Big 12 Conference Standings

(updated 1.16.2010)


 

We're just one week in, and there's been a few surprises already. For the most part, the chart above looks about like you would expect, except that nobody thought Missouri would be up there at the top or that Colorado and Oklahoma wouldn't be down there at the bottom.

For further analysis, follow the yellow-brick jump.

Seed* Record* Tourney* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Texas 1 16-0 NCAA 13 3 1 W-16 Pittsburgh none Rick Barnes
Kansas 2 14-2 NCAA 3 2 2 W-1 Temple Tennessee Bill Self
Kansas State 3 13-3 NCAA 4 9 7 W-1 Xavier Ole Miss Frank Martin
Missouri 4 11-5 NCAA 37 10 18 W-9 Kansas State Oral Roberts Mike Anderson
Baylor 5 9-7 NCAA 41 32 27 L-1 Xavier Colorado Scott Drew
Texas A&M 6 7-9 NIT 35 43 44 L-1 Clemson Washington Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State 7 6-10 NIT 34 54 52 L-1 Texas Tech Oklahoma Travis Ford
Colorado 8 5-11 None 140 96 112 W-1 Baylor Oregon State Jeff Bzdelik
Texas Tech 9 4-12 None 50 89 76 L-2 Washington Wichita State Pat Knight
Iowa State 10 4-12 None 131 76 75 L-1 Bradley Northwestern Greg McDermott
Nebraska 11 4-12 None 108 77 81 L-2 USC Creighton Doc Sadler
Oklahoma 12 3-13 None 109 105 101 W-1 Oklahoma State San Diego Jeff Capel

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will bold and color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to RealTimeRPI

 

Discussion

As I predicted, road teams continued to suffer early in the week, defying the collective predictions of my silly little model. From here on out, whenever BIG 12 OUTLOOK predicts more than half of the road teams will win in a given set of games, I'm just going to chalk up a couple of whiffs on my record beforehand.

But on Wednesday, Big 12 road teams Kansas, Missouri and Texas broke through in a big way, winning all three games to cement themselves as the league leaders.

K-State has a chance to join them today by winning at Colorado in what almost becomes a must-win game if we want to stay within a game of Missouri and head into Big Monday on the right note (and with a winning conference record).

That's even more crucial, because Missouri has a better-than-average chance to collect its second road win in conference play today before our game even tips off. We need to keep up with the Tigers if they beat a paltry Oklahoma team in Norman.

Meanwhile, Colorado and Nebraska basically switched places. Colorado's win over Baylor propelled the Buffaloes into uncharted projection territory. Escaping the bottom four would be amazing for the Buffs, and 6-10 actually looks attainable if they can keep beating some people at home. The inverse of that is Nebraska, whose schedule in the North just looks totally brutal right now.

Right now, it looks like the bottom of the league simply will beat up on each other all season, splitting the home-and-home series in almost all instances. I think there's only one projected road win by a team other than Baylor, KU, K-State, Mizzou or Texas — A&M at Tech. That's just crazy.

The net effect is that right now, it only looks like five tourney teams for the Big 12, based on recent history. A&M and OSU will need to pick off a few upsets, because right now, they each look like 12-loss teams, and I'm not sure that will be enough to keep their bubbles from popping. In the past, it certainly wouldn't be, but the strength of this league could be sufficient to push them over the edge this year. We shall see.

By the way, how brutal is this conference if 7-9 can get you a No. 6 seed?

GAMER: Now has K-State beating Baylor and Texas Tech; Colorado beating Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas Tech at home; and Missouri beating Oklahoma State.

Pomeroy: Now has K-State beating Baylor and Texas; Colorado beating Nebraska at home; and Iowa State beating Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

Sagarin: Now has K-State beating Baylor on the road and Kansas* at home; Colorado beating Iowa State, Nebraska and Texas Tech at home; and Oklahoma beating Texas Tech at home.

*This result is marked with an asterisk above and below because — once home-court advantage was factored into the equation — KU and K-State were tied by Sagarin rating. So I flipped a coin (heads = KU, tails = KSU) and it came up tails.

 

Self-Evaluation

Well, I knew there was no way in hell five road teams were going to win. The question was: Who would fall?

I thought Oklahoma might win, but was pretty shocked that Colorado did. I was even more shocked by Missouri winning, given their road history in recent years. Looks like the Tigers are legit this season.

So, chalk up a 4-2 record and hope the computers get a little smarter about predicting (or rather, not predicting) so many road wins, I say.

For today, I've got us and Missouri netting road wins, and the home teams holding serve in the other four games.

Sounds perfectly reasonable, but we shall see...

Cumulative pick record: 8-3 (.727)

 

Key

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order. Winners are predicted by a best-of-three system comprising three statistical prediction models:

Predicted Outcomes

01.09
4-1 (.800)
86 Colorado
103 Texas
68 K-State
74 Missouri
53 Nebraska
64 A&M
60 Oklahoma
91 Baylor
52 Tech
81 O-State
01.11-01.13
4-2 (.667)
57 O-State
62 Oklahoma (OT)
65 A&M
88 K-State
71 Baylor
78 Colorado
90 Texas
83 I-State
84 Kansas
72 Nebraska
94 Missouri
89 Tech (OT)
01.16
Missouri (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Tech
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Colorado
O-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
A&M
@ Texas (GPS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (GPS)
01.18-01.20
Texas (GS)
@ K-State (P)
Oklahoma
@ A&M (GPS)
Colorado
@ O-State (GPS)
Baylor
@ Kansas (GPS)
I-State
@ Tech (GPS)
01.23
O-State
@ K-State (GPS)
Colorado
@ A&M (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Missouri (GPS)
Oklahoma
@ Tech (GPS)
01.25-01.27
Missouri
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Baylor
A&M
@ O-State (GPS)
I-State (P)
@ Oklahoma (GS)
Tech
@ Texas (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Colorado (GPS)
01.30
Oklahoma
@ Nebraska (GPS)
O-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
Baylor
@ Texas (GPS)
Kansas (P)
@ K-State (GS*)
Colorado
@ I-State (GPS)
Tech
@ A&M (GPS)
02.01-02.03
Texas (GPS)
@ O-State
K-State (GPS)
@ Nebraska
Kansas (GPS)
@ Colorado
A&M
@ Missouri (GPS)
I-State
@ Baylor (GPS)
02.06
O-State (P)
@ Tech (GS)
K-State (GPS)
@ I-State
Missouri (GPS)
@ Colorado
Baylor (G)
@ A&M (PS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Nebraska
@ Kansas (GPS)
02.08-02.10
Kansas
@ Texas (GPS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Nebraska
I-State
@ Missouri (GPS)
02.13
Missouri (P)
@ Baylor (GS)
Oklahoma
@ O-State (GPS)
Nebraska
@ Texas (GPS)
A&M (P)
@ Tech (GS)
Colorado
@ K-State (GPS)
I-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
02.15-02.17
Kansas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Baylor (GPS)
O-State (G)
@ I-State (PS)
Oklahoma
@ Colorado (GPS)
Texas (GS)
@ Missouri (P)
Nebraska
@ K-State (GPS)
02.20
Baylor (G)
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (G)
@ I-State (PS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Tech
Colorado
@ Kansas (GPS)
Missouri (GPS)
@ Nebraska
K-State (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
02.22-02.24
Oklahoma
@ Kansas (GPS)
K-State (GPS)
@ Tech
O-State
@ Texas (GPS)
A&M
@ Baylor (GPS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (GPS)
Nebraska
@ I-State (GPS)
02.27
I-State (G)
@ Colorado (PS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Texas (GPS)
@ A&M
Tech
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ O-State
Missouri
@ K-State (GPS)
03.01-03.03
Oklahoma
@ Texas (GPS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (GPS)
Baylor (GPS)
@ Tech
Missouri (GPS)
@ I-State
K-State
@ Kansas (GPS)
O-State
@ A&M (GPS)
03.06
A&M (GPS)
@ Oklahoma
Nebraska
@ O-State (GPS)
Kansas (GPS)
@ Missouri
Tech
@ Colorado (GPS)
Texas (GPS)
@ Baylor
I-State
@ K-State (GPS)
X
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