BIG 12 OUTLOOK 02.27.09


Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 2.26.2009 at 1:22 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Kansas Jayhawks 12 1 23 5
Oklahoma Sooners 11 2 25 3
Missouri Tigers 11 2 24 4
Texas Longhorns 8 5 19 8
Kansas St. Wildcats 7 6 19 9
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 7 6 18 9
Texas A&M Aggies 6 7 20 8
Nebraska Cornhuskers 6 7 16 10
Baylor Bears 4 9 16 11
Iowa St. Cyclones 3 10 14 14
Texas Tech Red Raiders 2 11 12 16
Colorado Buffaloes 1 12 9 18


As a K-State fan, I have to say - the events that took place Monday and Wednesday really, really sucked.

As the proprietor of Big 12 Outlook, I'm even more unhappy. Hit the jump to see how I whiffed on half my predictions this week.

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Kansas 1 15-1 7 10 9 W-4 Washington UMass Bill Self
Missouri 2 13-3 12 8 10 W-7 Kansas Nebraska Mike Anderson
Oklahoma 3 13-3 4 19 7 L-2 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Kansas State 4 9-7 77 39 45 L-1 Missouri Oregon Frank Martin
Texas 5 9-7 38 29 27 W-2 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 6 9-7 32 40 36 W-4 Texas A&M Baylor Travis Ford
Texas A&M 7 8-8 34 55 53 W-3 Texas Baylor Mark Turgeon
Nebraska 8 7-9 72 67 70 L-2 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Baylor 9 6-10 60 57 55 L-2 Arizona State Texas Tech Scott Drew
Iowa State 10 4-12 146 97 105 W-1 Houston SDSU Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 132 108 112 L-5 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 1-15 228 174 204 L-8 Iowa State Montana State Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

It's time to do the Bill Self Shuffle! Kansas' win in Norman reaffirmed their status as the superpower of the league and likely paved the way to a fifth straight conference championship for the Jayhawks.

That development, coupled with Missouri's projected win over Oklahoma next Wednesday, means that Texas cost the Sooners a trophy, two spots on the seedline in Oklahoma City and probably a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance when they knocked Blake Griffin silly. Ouch.

The other major change this week was Texas A&M's unexpected win in Lincoln, which allowed them to jump the Huskers for the No. 7 seed. K-State's loss in Columbia, while ugly, had little impact on the projections as Big 12 Outlook has been predicting that outcome all season.

I still think Oklahoma State is something of a fraud, having built its recent streak with wins over hapless teams like Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State and Texas Tech. I stand by my prediction that we will win in Stillwater to finish 10-6 and claim a first-round bye. Have faith, Wildcats.

A quick analysis of the above chart yields three categories:

  1. THE GOOD: Obviously Kansas and Missouri are the hottest teams in the Big 12, and Oklahoma State is the trendy bubble pick despite having beat no one of substance, but Iowa State and Texas A&M saw very nice bumps to their projected records and computer numbers this week, too.
  2. THE BAD: Clearly, Oklahoma had a bad week. Nebraska, once one of the surprises of the league, has come back to earth a little by losing three of its last four. And despite its two-game winning streak, Texas' numbers continue to plummet, which probably guarantees them a No. 9 seed or lower in the NCAA Tournament.
  3. THE UGLY: Colorado is quite possibly one of the worst modern college basketball teams I have seen. Yet they might actually be able to win Saturday in Waco, which says a lot about how bad Baylor is playing. Just how bad are the Bears? Consider that their Pomeroy ranking dropped sufficiently this week to label them the worst loss Oklahoma State and Texas A&M have suffered. Hell, Iowa State beat them and they aren't even considered the Cyclones' best win! That's appalling...

There were no changes in the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections this week.

 

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook was a paltry 3-3 this week, missing every Monday and Tuesday game. This ties the 01.29.09 edition as my worst predictive effort yet.

As you can see below, I like Oklahoma to win at Texas Tech, even though they are shorthanded without Blake Griffin and Juan Pattillo, while the other five home teams should be able to defend their courts on Saturday.

On paper, Missouri and Texas would seem to be the biggest threats to pull a road upset, but I say watch out for Colorado. Baylor is playing like complete crap, having lost eight of their last nine, and if the Buffaloes are ever going to win a conference road game, this might be the one.

Cumulative pick record: 59-19 (.756)

 

Key

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
3-2 (.600)
61 Tech
73 Baylor
67 I-State
75 Texas
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
61 A&M
72 O-State
01.12-01.14
4-1 (.800)
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
71 K-State
87 Kansas
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
73 Baylor
84 A&M
01.17
6-0 (1.000)
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)
73 Kansas
56 Colorado
46 I-State
77 Missouri
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M
71 Texas
49 Tech
01.19-01.21
3-2 (.600)
53 A&M
73 Kansas
55 Colorado
63 Tech
83 Baylor
65 K-State
97 Missouri
95 O-State
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma
01.24
5-1 (.833)
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)
82 Kansas
67 I-State
86 Tech
97 Missouri
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma
58 A&M
67 Texas
01.26-01.28
3-3 (.500)
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State
78 Texas
72 Baylor
49 I-State
55 Colorado
72 Missouri
88 K-State
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska
70 Tech
79 A&M
01.31
4-2 (.667)
78 Oklahoma
68 I-State
85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)
61 Colorado
66 Kansas
72 Baylor
89 Missouri
82 Nebraska
69 Tech
64 O-State
76 A&M
02.02-02.04
4-2 (.667)
75 Kansas
65 Baylor
50 I-State
65 K-State
55 Nebraska
53 Colorado
69 Missouri
65 Texas
80 Tech
81 O-State
71 A&M
77 Oklahoma
02.07
4-2 (.667)
72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma
82 Missouri
68 I-State
65 K-State
60 A&M
67 O-State
78 Kansas
55 Texas
58 Nebraska
76 Baylor
83 Tech
02.09-02.11
5-0 (1.000)
60 Kansas
62 Missouri
74 O-State
99 Texas
78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor
42 Colorado
70 I-State
73 Tech
85 K-State
02.14
6-0 (1.000)
68 A&M
72 Baylor
85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT)
67 I-State
86 O-State
85 Kansas
74 K-State
47 Nebraska
70 Missouri
74 Tech
95 Oklahoma
02.16-02.18
3-1 (.750)
66 Texas
81 A&M
55 I-State
72 Kansas
41 Colorado
46 Nebraska
92 O-State
82 Tech
02.21
6-0 (1.000)
66 Missouri
53 Colorado
50 K-State
46 I-State
53 Nebraska
70 Kansas
74 Baylor
84 O-State
79 A&M
73 Tech
68 Oklahoma
73 Texas
02.23-02.25
3-3 (.500)
87 Kansas
78 Oklahoma
62 Baylor
71 I-State
57 A&M
55 Nebraska
76 O-State
55 Colorado
74 K-State
94 Missouri
81 Tech
87 Texas
02.28-03.01
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ A&M (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ O-State (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS)
03.02-03.04
Baylor
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS)
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)
X
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