BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.23.09


Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 2.22.2009 at 1:33 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Oklahoma Sooners 11 1 25 2
Kansas Jayhawks 11 1 22 5
Missouri Tigers 10 2 23 4
Kansas St. Wildcats 7 5 19 8
Texas Longhorns 7 5 18 8
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 6 6 17 9
Nebraska Cornhuskers 6 6 16 9
Texas A&M Aggies 5 7 19 8
Baylor Bears 4 8 16 10
Iowa St. Cyclones 2 10 13 14
Texas Tech Red Raiders 2 10 12 15
Colorado Buffaloes 1 11 9 17


Well, Big 12 Outlook was 6-0 again, and I totally called that Texas win, but I'll try to keep my smug satisfaction to a minimum. Oklahoma's loss means tonight's game is well and truly for the Big 12 Championship, except for that nagging little Missouri team that still gets to play both teams. Maybe K-State can do something about that Wednesday to help tonight's victor?

As for the Cats, our tourney prospects remain the same: Win and you're in, lose and you have no one to blame but yourself. Texas is keeping pace with us for now, but their closing schedule is harder than ours and besides - if we do what we need to do, the Big 12 will be a 5-bid league and it won't matter anyway. At least our Texas win carries more weight; we and Missouri are the only teams to win there in three years - not Kansas, not Oklahoma, not Texas A&M.

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Oklahoma 1 14-2 2 18 5 L-1 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Kansas 2 14-2 9 10 14 W-3 Washington UMass Bill Self
Missouri 3 13-3 15 7 11 W-6 Kansas Nebraska Mike Anderson
Kansas State 4 9-7 77 37 45 W-2 Missouri Oregon Frank Martin
Texas 5 9-7 35 25 25 W-1 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 6 9-7 32 46 38 W-3 Baylor Texas A&M Travis Ford
Nebraska 7 8-8 66 67 67 L-1 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Texas A&M 8 7-9 39 56 59 W-2 Texas Tulsa Mark Turgeon
Baylor 9 7-9 57 52 48 L-1 Arizona State Texas Tech Scott Drew
Iowa State 10 3-13 153 104 117 L-3 Houston SDSU Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 131 111 112 L-4 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 1-15 225 165 196 L-7 Iowa State Montana State Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

The convenient side effect of a 6-0 week is that I don't have to spend very much time discussing the newest projections, since there were absolutely no changes. I had already accounted for Texas beating Oklahoma, and the Cats still end up with the No. 4 seed despite projected losses to both Missouri and Oklahoma State.

I'll go on record right now, though, as saying that K-State will win one of those two games and finish 10-6 for the third consecutive season. Call it a gut feeling, if you want. I don't think we're quite good enough to finish 11-5, and frankly I expect to lose to a good Missouri team on Wednesday, but I also don't think we're as bad as 9-7, either. We'll need to win a conference tournament game against either Colorado or Texas (preferably Texas) to feel safe, I think.

There were no changes in the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections after Saturday.

 

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook was 6-0 this week. Not too much else to say, I guess.

As you can see below, I like Baylor and Oklahoma State to win road games against the bottom-feeders of the North (although I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see either team lose, since neither of them is inclined to play defense very often), while Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas should hold serve at home (although I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see any of them lose, except Texas, who should roll the Dead Faders in the Drum).

Cumulative pick record: 56-16 (.778)

 

Key

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
3-2 (.600)
61 Tech
73 Baylor
67 I-State
75 Texas
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
61 A&M
72 O-State
01.12-01.14
4-1 (.800)
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
71 K-State
87 Kansas
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
73 Baylor
84 A&M
01.17
6-0 (1.000)
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)
73 Kansas
56 Colorado
46 I-State
77 Missouri
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M
71 Texas
49 Tech
01.19-01.21
3-2 (.600)
53 A&M
73 Kansas
55 Colorado
63 Tech
83 Baylor
65 K-State
97 Missouri
95 O-State
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma
01.24
5-1 (.833)
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)
82 Kansas
67 I-State
86 Tech
97 Missouri
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma
58 A&M
67 Texas
01.26-01.28
3-3 (.500)
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State
78 Texas
72 Baylor
49 I-State
55 Colorado
72 Missouri
88 K-State
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska
70 Tech
79 A&M
01.31
4-2 (.667)
78 Oklahoma
68 I-State
85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)
61 Colorado
66 Kansas
72 Baylor
89 Missouri
82 Nebraska
69 Tech
64 O-State
76 A&M
02.02-02.04
4-2 (.667)
75 Kansas
65 Baylor
50 I-State
65 K-State
55 Nebraska
53 Colorado
69 Missouri
65 Texas
80 Tech
81 O-State
71 A&M
77 Oklahoma
02.07
4-2 (.667)
72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma
82 Missouri
68 I-State
65 K-State
60 A&M
67 O-State
78 Kansas
55 Texas
58 Nebraska
76 Baylor
83 Tech
02.09-02.11
5-0 (1.000)
60 Kansas
62 Missouri
74 O-State
99 Texas
78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor
42 Colorado
70 I-State
73 Tech
85 K-State
02.14
6-0 (1.000)
68 A&M
72 Baylor
85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT)
67 I-State
86 O-State
85 Kansas
74 K-State
47 Nebraska
70 Missouri
74 Tech
95 Oklahoma
02.16-02.18
3-1 (.750)
66 Texas
81 A&M
55 I-State
72 Kansas
41 Colorado
46 Nebraska
92 O-State
82 Tech
02.21
6-0 (1.000)
66 Missouri
53 Colorado
50 K-State
46 I-State
53 Nebraska
70 Kansas
74 Baylor
84 O-State
79 A&M
73 Tech
68 Oklahoma
73 Texas
02.23-02.25
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State
A&M
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Texas (PS)
02.28-03.01
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ A&M (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ O-State (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS)
03.02-03.04
Baylor
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS)
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)
X
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