BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.16.09


Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 2.15.2009 at 4:10 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Oklahoma Sooners 11 0 25 1
Kansas Jayhawks 9 1 20 5
Missouri Tigers 9 2 22 4
Texas Longhorns 6 4 17 7
Kansas St. Wildcats 6 5 17 8
Nebraska Cornhuskers 5 5 15 8
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 4 6 15 9
Baylor Bears 4 7 16 9
Texas A&M Aggies 3 7 17 8
Iowa St. Cyclones 2 8 13 12
Texas Tech Red Raiders 2 8 12 13
Colorado Buffaloes 1 9 9 15


I'd like to offer some kind of reasoned and insightful analysis for this edition of Big 12 Outlook, but all I could come up with is this:

Jayhawks, burn in Hell.

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Oklahoma 1 14-2 2 14 5 W-13 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Kansas 2 14-2 12 11 17 W-1 Washington UMass Bill Self
Missouri 3 13-3 17 8 10 W-5 Kansas Nebraska Mike Anderson
Texas 4 11-5 41 25 28 W-2 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Kansas State 5 9-7 77 38 50 L-1 Missouri Oregon Frank Martin
Oklahoma State 6 8-8 38 48 45 W-1 Tulsa Texas A&M Travis Ford
Nebraska 7 8-8 64 63 68 L-1 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Baylor 8 7-9 52 54 46 W-1 Arizona State Texas Tech Scott Drew
Texas A&M 9 6-10 51 69 65 L-3 Arizona Tulsa Mark Turgeon
Iowa State 10 3-13 141 100 107 L-1 Houston SDSU Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 112 107 102 L-2 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 1-15 220 163 194 L-5 Iowa State Montana State Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

I guess the upside to an 11-0 week on picks is that the projections don't change at all. We're in a dogfight with Texas for the No. 4 seed, and that's all there is to it. However, I almost think the No. 5 seed would be better because it would give us an easy extra win over Colorado. We need all the wins we can get now to impress the committee.

I still think we can steal a game at either Columbia or Stillwater to get to 10-6 for the third straight season, but if Texas gets that win over Oklahoma, 10-6 still may not get us a bye. At any rate, it's clear we are going to finish much better than where we were picked preseason, as long as we don't fall apart in the wake of this latest loss.

There were no changes in the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections this week.

 

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook was 6-0 again on Saturday. That's 11-0 for the week in total, if you're counting. Unfortunately, both Pomeroy and Sagarin were right about KU's chances in Manhattan. This won't be the start of another streak, though. These players will play harder than you can imagine when next the Jayhawks visit the Octagon of Doom.

As you can see below, Big 12 Outlook likes Kansas and Nebraska to win home games against woeful Iowa State and Colorado, as well as Oklahoma State and Texas to nab crucial road wins against rivals Texas Tech and Texas A&M.

 

Key

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
61 Tech
73 Baylor
67 I-State
75 Texas
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
61 A&M
72 O-State
01.12-01.14
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
71 K-State
87 Kansas
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
73 Baylor
84 A&M
01.17
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)
73 Kansas
56 Colorado
46 I-State
77 Missouri
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M
71 Texas
49 Tech
01.19-01.21
53 A&M
73 Kansas
55 Colorado
63 Tech
83 Baylor
65 K-State
97 Missouri
95 O-State
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma
01.24
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)
82 Kansas
67 I-State
86 Tech
97 Missouri
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma
58 A&M
67 Texas
01.26-01.28
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State
78 Texas
72 Baylor
49 I-State
55 Colorado
72 Missouri
88 K-State
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska
70 Tech
79 A&M
01.31
78 Oklahoma
68 I-State
85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)
61 Colorado
66 Kansas
72 Baylor
89 Missouri
82 Nebraska
69 Tech
64 O-State
76 A&M
02.02-02.04
75 Kansas
65 Baylor
50 I-State
65 K-State
55 Nebraska
53 Colorado
69 Missouri
65 Texas
80 Tech
81 O-State
71 A&M
77 Oklahoma
02.07
72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma
82 Missouri
68 I-State
65 K-State
60 A&M
67 O-State
78 Kansas
55 Texas
58 Nebraska
76 Baylor
83 Tech
02.09-02.11
60 Kansas
62 Missouri
74 O-State
99 Texas
78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor
42 Colorado
70 I-State
73 Tech
85 K-State
02.14
68 A&M
72 Baylor
85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT)
67 I-State
86 O-State
85 Kansas
74 K-State
47 Nebraska
70 Missouri
74 Tech
95 Oklahoma
02.16-02.18
Texas (PS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech
02.21
Missouri (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State (PS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma (S)
@ Texas (PR)
02.23-02.25
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State
A&M
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Texas (PS)
02.28-03.01
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ A&M (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS)
Texas (PR)
@ O-State (S)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS)
03.02-03.04
Baylor
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS)
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)
X
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