BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.13.09


Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 2.12.2009 at 1:31 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Oklahoma Sooners 10 0 24 1
Kansas Jayhawks 8 1 19 5
Missouri Tigers 8 2 21 4
Kansas St. Wildcats 6 4 17 7
Texas Longhorns 5 4 16 7
Nebraska Cornhuskers 5 4 15 7
Texas A&M Aggies 3 6 17 7
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 3 6 14 9
Baylor Bears 3 7 15 9
Iowa St. Cyclones 2 7 13 11
Texas Tech Red Raiders 2 7 12 12
Colorado Buffaloes 1 8 9 14


Well, Cats - just keep doing what you're doing. A No. 4 seed is directly in our cross-hairs if we can get the big win on Saturday. We need to hold serve at home and steal at least one win on the road. That would get us to 10-6 and I think the way things are going, we would be a solid tournament team even with our non-con resume.

Don't believe me? Take a look at the ESPN Bubble Watch. In the last month, K-State has been way more impressive than all but a handful of those bubble teams. Keep it up, and we will be one of the three hottest teams in the country down the stretch. It will take care of itself. Our motto needs to be: Stay ahead of Nebraska and Texas.

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Oklahoma 1 15-1 2 14 5 W-12 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Kansas 2 14-2 17 15 19 L-1 Washington UMass Bill Self
Missouri 3 13-3 16 10 11 W-4 Kansas Nebraska Mike Anderson
Texas 4 10-6 38 24 27 W-1 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Kansas State 5 9-7 72 37 43 W-6 Missouri Oregon Frank Martin
Oklahoma State 6 8-8 37 54 48 L-2 Nebraska Texas A&M Travis Ford
Nebraska 7 8-8 69 58 68 W-3 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Baylor 8 7-9 58 52 49 L-6 Arizona State Texas Tech Scott Drew
Texas A&M 9 6-10 48 73 66 L-2 LSU Tulsa Mark Turgeon
Iowa State 10 3-13 136 99 106 W-1 Houston SDSU Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 119 107 101 L-1 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 1-15 215 166 195 L-4 Iowa State Montana State Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

As you can see, there isn't much to discuss this week. Things are beginning to really lock in now, and barring any earth-shaking upsets, this is roughly how I expect the field to look in early March, give or take a few seeds here or there.

The one big exception is this week's only movement. Obviously, K-State didn't so much fall as get passed by Texas, who picked up a projected road win over Oklahoma State to move to 10-6 and the No. 4 seed. I'm not overly concerned about this; remember that if when K-State beats KU tomorrow, KU will fall into a tie at 13-3 with Mizzou and K-State will move up into a tie at 10-6 with Texas, who they already beat head-to-head. That No. 4 seed is ours, dammit!

Based on this week's results, Pomeroy now predicts Texas to beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater. I imagine this change of heart has something to do with the way the Longhorns stampeded over the Cowboys Tuesday night. There were no other changes in the Pomeroy projections.

There were no changes in the Sagarin projections this week.

 

Self Evaluation

I think the analysis speaks for itself. (Ha ha, get it? It-self?)

SelfEvaluation2

 

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook was 5-0 this week. Not that I'm bragging or anything, as it was pretty easy to pick those five games.

As you can see below, Big 12 Outlook likes four home teams to win this week, with Kansas and Texas pulling out road wins. I emphasize that Outlook likes those picks, because I think Pomeroy and Sagarin are wrong on one point: We're gonna tar and de-feather the Hawks tomorrow.

 

Key

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
61 Tech
73 Baylor
67 I-State
75 Texas
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
61 A&M
72 O-State
01.12-01.14
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
71 K-State
87 Kansas
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
73 Baylor
84 A&M
01.17
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)
73 Kansas
56 Colorado
46 I-State
77 Missouri
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M
71 Texas
49 Tech
01.19-01.21
53 A&M
73 Kansas
55 Colorado
63 Tech
83 Baylor
65 K-State
97 Missouri
95 O-State
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma
01.24
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)
82 Kansas
67 I-State
86 Tech
97 Missouri
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma
58 A&M
67 Texas
01.26-01.28
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State
78 Texas
72 Baylor
49 I-State
55 Colorado
72 Missouri
88 K-State
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska
70 Tech
79 A&M
01.31
78 Oklahoma
68 I-State
85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)
61 Colorado
66 Kansas
72 Baylor
89 Missouri
82 Nebraska
69 Tech
64 O-State
76 A&M
02.02-02.04
75 Kansas
65 Baylor
50 I-State
65 K-State
55 Nebraska
53 Colorado
69 Missouri
65 Texas
80 Tech
81 O-State
71 A&M
77 Oklahoma
02.07
72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma
82 Missouri
68 I-State
65 K-State
60 A&M
67 O-State
78 Kansas
55 Texas
58 Nebraska
76 Baylor
83 Tech
02.09-02.11
60 Kansas
62 Missouri
74 O-State
99 Texas
78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor
42 Colorado
70 I-State
73 Tech
85 K-State
02.14
A&M
@ Baylor (PS)
Texas (PS)
@ Colorado
I-State
@ O-State (PS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State
Nebraska
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (PS)
02.16-02.18
Texas (PS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech
02.21
Missouri (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State (PS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma (RS)
@ Texas (P)
02.23-02.25
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State
A&M
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Texas (PS)
02.28-03.01
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ A&M (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS)
Texas (PR)
@ O-State (S)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS)
03.02-03.04
Baylor
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS)
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)
X
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