BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 02.09.09


Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 2.8.2009 at 1:33 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Oklahoma Sooners 9 0 23 1
Kansas Jayhawks 8 0 19 4
Missouri Tigers 7 2 20 4
Kansas St. Wildcats 5 4 16 7
Nebraska Cornhuskers 5 4 15 7
Texas Longhorns 4 4 15 7
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 3 5 14 8
Texas A&M Aggies 3 6 17 7
Baylor Bears 3 6 15 8
Texas Tech Red Raiders 2 6 12 11
Iowa St. Cyclones 1 7 12 11
Colorado Buffaloes 1 7 9 13


In honor of the momentous development that occurred over the weekend, a thing that very few thought possible, I'd like to turn the podium over to Coach Frank Martin briefly and allow him to make a few introductory remarks for this week's edition of Big 12 Outlook. Take it away, Frank:

From 0-4 to 5-4, bitches! I'd like to thank the haters - without you guys, none of this would have been possible. You picked us 8th. Your doubt and lack of support have been instrumental in me getting my team to bust its ass at ever-increasing levels of frenzy. I'd particularly like to thank Dave Armstrong and Reid Gettys. I know I didn't have any faith in myself whatsoever until you guys ponderously decided last Saturday to concede that there is some good coaching happening here.

Also, I want to thank the bandwagon fans. I really appreciate you guys showing up this Saturday to get in the front row thanks to our new random lottery system. Where were you earlier? Oh, well, thanks for coming - yell loud and enjoy the party. Oh, and to you 500 students who haven't claimed your tickets even once this season, you damn sure better not show up in blue Saturday or I will personally break your index fingers. Thanks, and God bless!"

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Streak Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Oklahoma 1 15-1 3 18 5 W-11 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Kansas 2 14-2 14 13 18 W-8 Washington UMass Bill Self
Missouri 3 13-3 21 9 12 W-4 Texas Nebraska Mike Anderson
Kansas State 4 9-7 70 34 45 W-5 Missouri Oregon Frank Martin
Texas 5 9-7 44 27 29 L-3 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 6 9-7 31 46 43 L-1 Tulsa Texas A&M Travis Ford
Nebraska 7 8-8 68 59 69 W-3 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Baylor 8 7-9 56 45 44 L-5 Arizona State Texas Tech Scott Drew
Texas A&M 9 6-10 45 73 67 L-2 LSU Tulsa Mark Turgeon
Iowa State 10 3-13 140 122 115 L-6 Houston SDSU Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 107 108 99 W-1 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 1-15 209 145 187 L-3 Iowa State Montana State Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

First, general trends. The top three seeds appear locked in, as do the bottom four, but oh, what a shuffle in the middle. All six North teams saw an across-the-board incline in their numbers, heralding the rise of the superior division. All but one South team saw an across-the-board decline in their numbers, and Tech was the exception only because it snapped a long losing streak by beating Baylor.

Also, please note that I added streak indicators to each team on the chart so you can see who is hot and who is not. Surprise, surprise - the South owns some of the more embarrassing losing streaks in the conference, thanks to Baylor and Texas, while four of the five hottest teams reside in the North: Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Nebraska.

K-State's record did not change at all, but we shot up to a first-day bye. Thank Texas' three-game slide for that. The tie was broken first between Oklahoma State and Texas on South Division record, and then between K-State and Texas on head-to-head outcome. Keep in mind that I vehemently disagree with Pomeroy and Sagarin on one point: After Saturday, it will become clear to them that K-State will be at least 10-6.

For the first time since I started Big 12 Outlook, there were no changes in either the Pomeroy or Sagarin projections.

 

Self Evaluation

I think he really could have used some of this tonight:

SelfEvaluation1

 

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook went 4-2 yet again this week. It failed to account for Texas and Baylor's recent suckiness, which allowed supposedly inferior teams in Nebraska and Texas Tech to overcome them at home, but otherwise the model performed well.

As you can see below, I like four home teams to win this week, with only Oklahoma pulling out a road win over a Baylor squad that is just mailing it in at this point. Hell, the Bears might even fall out of the NIT picture at this rate. Premature evaluation: Since this feature is late today, I can already tell you that it is 1-for-1 this week. Ha ha, Squawks! Hate Week ain't gettin' any easier on Saturday, either!

Iowa State and Texas should end ugly losing streaks thanks to hosting teams that are doing even worse than they are - Colorado and Oklahoma State. Texas Tech had a nice little win Saturday, but they're not going to come into the Octagon of Doom and knock off the hottest team in the conference, on the veritable eve of battle with the hated rival.

 

Key

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
61 Tech
73 Baylor
67 I-State
75 Texas
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
61 A&M
72 O-State
01.12-01.14
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
71 K-State
87 Kansas
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
73 Baylor
84 A&M
01.17
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)
73 Kansas
56 Colorado
46 I-State
77 Missouri
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M
71 Texas
49 Tech
01.19-01.21
53 A&M
73 Kansas
55 Colorado
63 Tech
83 Baylor
65 K-State
97 Missouri
95 O-State
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma
01.24
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)
82 Kansas
67 I-State
86 Tech
97 Missouri
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma
58 A&M
67 Texas
01.26-01.28
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State
78 Texas
72 Baylor
49 I-State
55 Colorado
72 Missouri
88 K-State
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska
70 Tech
79 A&M
01.31
78 Oklahoma
68 I-State
85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)
61 Colorado
66 Kansas
72 Baylor
89 Missouri
82 Nebraska
69 Tech
64 O-State
76 A&M
02.02-02.04
75 Kansas
65 Baylor
50 I-State
65 K-State
55 Nebraska
53 Colorado
69 Missouri
65 Texas
80 Tech
81 O-State
71 A&M
77 Oklahoma
02.07
72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma
82 Missouri
68 I-State
65 K-State
60 A&M
67 O-State
78 Kansas
55 Texas
58 Nebraska
76 Baylor
83 Tech
02.09-02.11
Kansas
@ Missouri (PS)
O-State
@ Texas (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Baylor
Colorado
@ I-State (PS)
Tech
@ K-State (PS)
02.14
A&M
@ Baylor (PS)
Texas (PS)
@ Colorado
I-State
@ O-State (PS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State
Nebraska
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (PS)
02.16-02.18
Texas (PS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech
02.21
Missouri (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State (PS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma (RS)
@ Texas (P)
02.23-02.25
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State
A&M
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Texas (PS)
02.28-03.01
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ A&M (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ O-State (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS)
03.02-03.04
Baylor
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS)
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)
X
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