An Attempt to Sort Out the Big 12 North Scenarios
Now that each team is down to two or three games remaining, it's a little more manageable to look at what remains and figure out how things may play out. Nothing about this is guaranteed to be right, and if you see something that I've missed, make a comment explaining the mistake. I'm going to break this down by the record it will take to win the North, then by what each team must have happen to win it at that record. First, the current standings:
K-State: 4-2 (Missouri, @Nebraska)
Nebraska: 3-2 (@KU, K-State, @Colorado)
Colorado: 2-3 (@Iowa State, @Oklahoma State, Nebraska)
Iowa State: 2-4 (Colorado, @Missouri)
KU: 1-4 (Nebraska, @Texas, Missouri)
Missouri: 1-4 (@K-State, Iowa State, KU)
Winning Record: 6-2 (Teams still in the running: K-State, Nebraska)
K-State: Go 2-0
If K-State gets to 6-2, then it wins the division. By winning both remaining games to get to 6-2, by necessity Nebraska must lose a game and thus cannot get to 6-2.
Nebraska: Go 3-0
If Nebraska goes 3-0, then the same as above is true. It will win the division because K-State cannot also get to 6-2.
Every other school already has at least three losses.
Winning Record: 5-3 (Teams still in the running: K-State, Nebraska, Colorado)
K-State: Go 1-1
If K-State goes 1-1 and that win is over Nebraska, it wins the division. Even if CU went 3-0 to close the season, K-State would win the three-way tiebreaker by virtue of its wins over NU and CU.
If K-State goes 1-1 and that win is over Missouri, then it needs Nebraska to lose its road games to KU and CU -- or -- it would need CU to win out and make it a three-way tie. If it's a three-way tie in that scenario, then K-State wins because it would be 4-1 against the rest of the division, while NU and CU would be 3-2.
Nebraska: Go 2-1
If Nebraska goes 2-1 and those two wins are over K-State and CU, then the Huskers win the division.
If NU's two wins are over KU and K-State, then it needs CU to lose one of its three remaining games.
In this scenario, Nebraska must beat K-State, because if it doesn't, the Wildcats win the division.
Colorado: Go 3-0*
Colorado can get to 5-3 by winning out, but it would need K-State to go 0-2 because K-State has the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Winning record: 4-4 (All teams can still get to 4-4)
While each team can still get to 4-4, it's impossible to have a six-way tie at that record because some of the four-loss teams play each other. Also, Nebraska still has to win one more game to assure itself a 4-4 record, while Colorado has to win two to reach that plateau. I'm going to omit an extended discussion of this scenario, because it seems pretty unlikely at this point that 4-4 will be the best record in the division, and it would take forever to go through every possible scenario.
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18 comments
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Comments
Forget the North for now. Let's not look ahead.
The first goal is to become bowl eligible. That should be the number one concern for the Cats right now. We can still win the North even with a loss to Nebraska, so let’s make sure we win against Mizzou.
This game with Mizzou will be absolutely crucial to the overall success of the season. Going to a bowl is huge from a rebuilding standpoint.
Unholy Alliance temporarily suspended?
Introducing the new 2008 Big 12 Football Champions: OU, UT*, TT*, and MU*!
Now Introducing the new 2009 Big 12 Baseball Tournament Champions: UT, KSU*, BU*, and MU*!
by mystman995 on Nov 9, 2009 9:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
If you guys just need someone else to hate with you...
I can do it for the week…it’d only be temporary though and I’d only be able to root for you this week and this week alone. : )
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
by Denverjhawk on Nov 9, 2009 10:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Eeek...Unholy Alliance suspended...
for Unholier Acquaintanceship? ;o)
Hail to the Purple, Hail to the White
Wildcat in spirit, Wildcat in fight
Hail Alma Mater from sea to sea
Onward forever, Hail Victory!
by MadCat on Nov 9, 2009 10:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking...
it’s more of an Apocalyptic Coalition.
www.bringonthecats.com
by EMAW on Nov 9, 2009 11:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going to go with the classic:
KU’s rooting for us this week, not that there’s anything wrong with that….
Introducing the new 2008 Big 12 Football Champions: OU, UT*, TT*, and MU*!
Now Introducing the new 2009 Big 12 Baseball Tournament Champions: UT, KSU*, BU*, and MU*!
by mystman995 on Nov 9, 2009 11:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sadly, I am returning the favor
And that’s not what Hate Week was supposed to be about. Oh, well…
by BracketCat on Nov 9, 2009 4:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think we're in the same boat.
You want us to beat Mizzou and we need you guys to beat Nebraska. The circle is complete and therefore nobody gets hurt.
Introducing the new 2008 Big 12 Football Champions: OU, UT*, TT*, and MU*!
Now Introducing the new 2009 Big 12 Baseball Tournament Champions: UT, KSU*, BU*, and MU*!
by mystman995 on Nov 9, 2009 5:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This is so sweet
Nebraska and Missouri: Bringing Kansas together.
by Wolvie on Nov 9, 2009 11:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm actually going to Columbia this evening for work...
However, I’ll get there late and leave early tomorrow, so no Unholy good times shall be had.
I do look forward to meeting some of the RMN brethren next weekend though.
Bring on the Cats
"Without getting into specifics, my exit involves a McFlurry machine and a video tape of risque commercials from overseas." -- Jack Donaghy
by Panjandrum on Nov 9, 2009 12:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Unholy good times
Why does this sound mind-blowingly good?
Hail to the Purple, Hail to the White
Wildcat in spirit, Wildcat in fight
Hail Alma Mater from sea to sea
Onward forever, Hail Victory!
by MadCat on Nov 9, 2009 4:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Just become bowl eligible...
Instead of giving ourselves a headache over all the possible permutations of the North scenario…let’s just get the job done against Mizzou. Everything after that is just implausible gravy on the whole season.
by Catbacker98 on Nov 9, 2009 8:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I didn’t think a whole post was necessary regarding what needed to be done to reach a bowl, as there are only so many ways you can say “if we win one more game, we’re going bowling!” But yeah, getting to a bowl needs to be our primary goal at this point. Winning the North would be fantabulous, but the extra practice time is what this team really needs right now.
We'll carry the banner high!
Bring On The Cats
by TB on Nov 9, 2009 10:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I stated in May
that the North would come down to us at Nebraska. Unfortuately the way they get calls there with the home crowd it would take a domination by us to win I think and I don’t know if we can do it. The winner of this game wins the North.
Wildcat for life
by mjk7166 on Nov 10, 2009 7:30 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
How are Phil Steele's predictions looking now?
1. Nebraska
T2. Colorado
T2. Kansas State
4. Kansas
5. Missouri
6. Iowa State
Hail to the Purple, Hail to the White
Wildcat in spirit, Wildcat in fight
Hail Alma Mater from sea to sea
Onward forever, Hail Victory!
by MadCat on Nov 10, 2009 11:06 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
5-3 Scenario
You are correct that KSU would be the winner in a 3-way tie, but it wouldn’t be because of head-to-head…
The following scenario would get us to Tie-Breaker B.2.
http://www.big12sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=10410&ATCLID=1546006
KSU beats MU, loses to NU
NU beats KU, KSU, loses to CU
CU wins out.
Tie breaker 1 is round-robin head-to-head, and they are all 1-1.
Tie breaker 2 is Big 12 North record. KSU is 4-1, NU and CU is 3-2.
GO HUSKERS!
by NugsRoxHusker on Nov 10, 2009 4:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Hmm..
So we need to be rooting for KU (against NU) and CU for it’s remaining games….
I think we’ve got better odds just flat out beating Nebraska…
Introducing the new 2008 Big 12 Football Champions: OU, UT*, TT*, and MU*!
Now Introducing the new 2009 Big 12 Baseball Tournament Champions: UT, KSU*, BU*, and MU*!
by mystman995 on Nov 10, 2009 4:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I said
If K-State goes 1-1 and that win is over Missouri, then it needs Nebraska to lose its road games to KU and CU — or — it would need CU to win out and make it a three-way tie. If it’s a three-way tie in that scenario, then K-State wins because it would be 4-1 against the rest of the division, while NU and CU would be 3-2.
We'll carry the banner high!
Bring On The Cats
by TB on Nov 10, 2009 5:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
bowl eligibility
unfortunately the loss to misery and the 2 FCS teams played means the only way for bowl eligibility is winning the big12 championship game.
by dmpohl on Nov 15, 2009 2:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs















