Kansas State Wildcats (5-4 | 3-2) VS. Kansas Jayhawks (5-3 | 1-3)

The Sunflower Showdown
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

VERSUS

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Rock Chalk Talk — but I don't recommend it. They have diseases over there.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (61 of 98, 665 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (42 catches, 524 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (181 carries, 902 yards, 10 TD)

Wild Card
Jeffrey Fitzgerald (29 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 6 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PBU, 2 FF, 2 FR)

KU

Passing
Todd Reesing (205 of 320, 2,385 yards, 16 TD, 7 INT)

Receiving
Kerry Meier (65 catches, 666 yards, 6 TD)

Rushing
Toben Opurum (114 carries, 491 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Dezmon Briscoe (54 catches, 841 yards, 5 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (32 | -7) > KU (76)

Passing Offense
KU (7) > K-State (102 | +2)

Total Offense
KU (11) > K-State (75 | -1)

Scoring Offense
KU (19) > K-State (58 | +6)

Rushing Defense
KU (14) > K-State (24 | -5)

Pass Efficiency Defense
KU (56) > K-State (63 | -12)

Total Defense
K-State (43 | -4) > KU (47)

Scoring Defense
K-State (59 | -13) > KU (71)

Net Punting
KU (85) > K-State (87 | +5)

Punt Returns
K-State (43 | -1) > KU (85)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5) > KU (87)

Turnover Margin
K-State (14) > KU (57)

Pass Defense
K-State (81 | -7) > KU (100)

Passing Efficiency
KU (35) > K-State (70 | -3)

Analysis

See all those pretty numbers above? This may be the only time you hear this from a stats guy like me, so enjoy it:

Throw 'em out the window. They don't mean jack.

Nothing would surprise me in this game. Not another 12-3 slugfest, not K-State passing for 300 yards, not Sharp rumbling for 200 again (well, that would be a little surprising).

Both teams want this one and it will be a war. Mark that down.

I will say this: KU, like OU, is rated ahead of us in most categories, which you should take with a grain of salt because of the weak non-conference competition. As the Jayhawks get further into the conference season, those numbers have continued to plummet.

But unlike OU, KU is worse than K-State in four key areas, by a significant margin: total defense, scoring defense, punt returns and pass defense. And we're at home, in front of a near-sellout crowd, with a legend on the sidelines. I'm just sayin'...

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Kansas 26

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, David Garrett, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Texas rolls in a laugher and suddenly dominant Texas A&M should cruise in high altitude.

Mizzou will get more fight from the hibernating Bears than they might expect, but that has more to do with Gary Pinkel's crappy halftime adjustments than anything else.

Iowa State is a hot upset pick, but I think T. Boone's boys will get it done. "Win one for the Dezzer!"

And that leaves the rumble in Memorial Stadium. If the over for this game was 400 cumulative yards for both teams, I might be tempted to bet the under. Should be fun.

UCF at #2 Texas (FSN)
Longhorns 33, Golden Knights 7

Texas A&M at Colorado
Aggies 32, Buffaloes 27

Baylor at Missouri
Tigers 34, Bears 23

#18 Oklahoma State at Iowa State (ABC)
Cowboys 26, Cyclones 21

#20 Oklahoma at Nebraska (ABC)
Sooners 20, Cornhuskers 19

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.