Kansas State Wildcats (6-4 | 4-2) VS. Missouri Tigers (5-4 | 1-4)

Senior Day
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

VERSUS

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Rock M Nation — unofficial second home of the temporarily suspended Unholy Alliance.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (68 of 114, 731 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (43 catches, 529 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (205 carries, 1,087 yards, 11 TD)

Wild Card
Emmanuel Lamur (51 tackles, 1 TFL, 3 INT, 2 FR)

MU

Passing
Blaine Gabbert (181 of 314, 2,364 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT)

Receiving
Danario Alexander (71 catches, 1,038 yards, 8 TD)

Rushing
Derrick Washington (140 carries, 562 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
Sean Weatherspoon (84 tackles, 11 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (23 | +9) > MU (102)

Passing Offense
MU (21) > K-State (106 | -4)

Total Offense
MU (56) > K-State (78 | -3)

Scoring Offense
MU (57) > K-State (69 | -11)

Rushing Defense
MU (17) > K-State (20 | +4)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (60 | +3) > MU (63)

Total Defense
K-State (43) > MU (45)

Scoring Defense
K-State (45 | +14) > MU (63)

Net Punting
MU (7) > K-State (77 | +10)

Punt Returns
K-State (44 | -1) > MU (49)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (4 | +1) > MU (103)

Turnover Margin
K-State (6 | +8) > MU (69)

Pass Defense
K-State (83 | -2) > MU (89)

Passing Efficiency
MU (49) > K-State (76 | -6)

Analysis

Second verse, same as the first. If you covered up the numbers and just listed them as "Team A" and "Team B," you would see very little statistical difference between Kansas and Missouri. They're both spread teams who are good at passing the ball and defending the pass (likely because they see it every day in practice), but they both also suck at running the ball or stopping the run.

And just like last week, I say to throw out the stats. I think Mizzou will come in with their backs against the wall and give us everything we want in the first half. Blaine Gabbert isn't nearly as turnover-prone as Todd Reesing, so we're going to have to win this the old-fashioned way: D-Train left, D-Train right, D-Train up the middle.

One thing's for sure: If we lead at halftime, it's over. Missouri hasn't scored a TD in the second half of any of its conference games and Bill Snyder has a prodigious record when leading at the half, especially at home.

Furthermore, Bill Snyder is undefeated against Missouri at home in November and undefeated against Gary Pinkel. Things are unraveling in Columbia, and I don't think this is the best place for them to try and put it all back together.

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Missouri 25

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

We're keeping it all in the divisions this week, and the pecking order in both the North and the South should become a lot clearer after Saturday's games.

In general, I like the home teams, except in the case of rapidly fading Kansas and outmatched Baylor. Whaddaya know? The two traditional Big 12 bottom-feeders, unable to defend their home turf? Just like old times, says I.

#2 Texas at Baylor (FSN)
Longhorns 28, Bears 10

Colorado at Iowa State
Cyclones 35, Buffaloes 28

Nebraska at Kansas (ABC)
Cornhuskers 25, Jayhawks 22

Texas A&M at Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 28, Aggies 18

Texas Tech at #17 Oklahoma State (ABC)
Cowboys 22, Red Raiders 16

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.