KICKING THE TIRES: Texas Tech University

by BracketCat on Oct 9, 2009 12:01 PM CDT in Football Comment 7 comments

KansasStateLeft TexasTechRight

Kansas State Wildcats (3-2 | 1-0) AT Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2 | 0-1)

The Likely Loss in Lubbock
Jones AT&T Stadium - Lubbock, Texas
Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009 - 6:00 PM CST

FSN

Arr, mateys. Click the jump for a scurvy preview of Capt. Leach's scalawags.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (18 of 29, 227 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 30 carries, 121 yards, 2 TD)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (23 catches, 289 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (116 carries, 529 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Brandon Harold* (45 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 PBU, 2 FF)

*2008 stats

TTU

Passing
Steven Sheffield (20 of 29, 290 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Alex Torres (29 catches, 301 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Baron Batch (44 carries, 226 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Lyle Leong (22 catches, 281 yards, 5 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (36 | -4) > TTU (120)

Passing Offense
TTU (2) > K-State (90 | +1)

Total Offense
TTU (8) > K-State (63 | -8)

Scoring Offense
TTU (11) > K-State (87)

Rushing Defense
TTU (28) > K-State (38 | -21)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (22 | -2) > TTU (48)

Total Defense
K-State (16 | -6) > TTU (69)

Scoring Defense
K-State (29 | -3) > TTU (51)

Net Punting
TTU (62) > K-State (101 | +5)

Punt Returns
K-State (31 | +5) > TTU (43)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (4 | +1) > TTU (23)

Turnover Margin
K-State (61 | -5) > TTU (100)

Pass Defense
K-State (7 | +6) > TTU (99)

Passing Efficiency
TTU (27) > K-State (71 | +16)

Analysis

I'll keep this simple: Texas Tech loves to pass the ball and really sucks at running it. They also turn it over a lot.

This would seem to favor us, because we have a really good passing defense, but we also haven't truly been tested downfield by anyone yet. And our rushing defense got exposed a little last week, too, so that remains an area of concern. Our lack of a pass rush also is a major concern.

We have sucked at passing, but might get a lot better now that Grant Gregory is starting. We are good at running the ball, but Tech is really good at stopping the run too. Our chief advantage is in the return game.

What does it all mean? I have no earthly idea. On paper, we should get killed by the talent mismatch, but Tech is breaking in a new starting QB for the first time in the Mike Leach era and also might not take us as seriously as it should. We are, after all, slightly better than the 0-5 New Mexico team that gave the Red Raiders fits last week.

I think the game will be closer than the experts think, but we just won't generate enough of a pass rush to pressure Sheffield — even if Brandon Harold starts, as is rumored.

Prediction: Texas Tech 31, Kansas State 22

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Raphael Guidry, Brandon Harold
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

As I write this, Nebraska just pulled off a stunning comeback that clearly anoints them as the front-runner in the North. With games against Oklahoma State and Texas next, Missouri is in serious danger of an 0-3 start.

Oklahoma State is depleted, yes, but Texas A&M is just terrible. The Cowboys should be able to escape College Station with a win.

Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas all are served sacrificial lambs on a platter this week. Hell, our game might end up being one of the more competitive. It's too bad that the Big Ten and SEC showdowns aren't paralleled by great games in the Big 12 on Saturday. Hell, we moved our best game to a Thursday. Brilliant.

#15 Oklahoma State at Texas A&M (FSN)
Cowboys 25, Aggies 23

Iowa State at #16 Kansas (Versus)
Jayhawks 33, Cyclones 17

Baylor at #19 Oklahoma (ABC)
Sooners 27, Bears 15

Colorado at #2 Texas (ESPN)
Longhorns 33, Buffaloes 11

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

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Comments

Scoring first...

I think we have to score first or this could turn into a wide margin. One thing about kstate is that it seems we do much better when we score first to gain confidence. I like our chances with our dbacks and thier back up QB. You are right that it will come down to getting pressure on the QB if we can keep it close. Every team has bad games and let’s just hope with Potts out this is Tech’s.

Wildcat for life

by mjk7166 on Oct 9, 2009 1:09 PM CDT reply actions

Another point...

A lot has been said regarding the match up between the Texas Tech passing attack vs. the K-State passing defense. Mike Leach even statied that this is the first time we (KSU) will have seen a potent passing attack all year. All true and valid points. Conversely, Mr. Leach and Texas Tech will finally meet a team that is going to run the ball right at them for the first time all year. If Gregory starts we are talking a trio of runners to account for on defense. I give the nod to Tech at home but I don’t think they will pile up 550-600 yards as they have in previous years on this defense and with Snyder playing keep away from the Tech offense. Should be an interesting game to watch.

by Catbacker98 on Oct 9, 2009 10:26 PM CDT reply actions