Kansas State Wildcats (2-2) VS. Iowa State Cyclones (3-1)

"Farmageddon"
Arrowhead Stadium - Kansas City, Mo.
Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009 - 2:00 PM CST

FCS Central | Cox Cable 22

Sorry for being 12 hours late, but I've simply been off-track all week. I took a vacation Monday to have a three-day weekend up in Manhattan and KC, and I've been playing catchup so much at work since then that I just haven't had time to work ahead on this like I usually do.

At any rate, thanks to Panjandrum, the Ag-pocalypse needs no more buildup or hype, but if it's statistics you're seeking, click the jump.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Carson Coffman (55 of 95, 684 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (19 catches, 223 yards)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (91 carries, 433 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Courtney Herndon (3 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 PBU)

ISU

Passing
Austen Arnaud (50 of 91, 625 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT)

Receiving
Marquis Hamilton (15 catches, 266 yards, 2 TD)

Rushing
Alexander Robinson (79 carries, 453 yards, 3 TD)

Wild Card
Jesse Smith (37 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
ISU (21) > K-State (32 | +17)

Passing Offense
K-State (91 | -4) > ISU (94)

Total Offense
ISU (51) > K-State (55 | +20)

Scoring Offense
ISU (74) > K-State (87 | +20)

Rushing Defense
K-State (17 | +45) > ISU (85)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (20 | -6) > ISU (63)

Total Defense
K-State (10 | +19) > ISU (70)

Scoring Defense
K-State (26 | +17) > ISU (36)

Net Punting
ISU (5) > K-State (106 | -6)

Punt Returns
K-State (36 | +9) > ISU (86)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5 | +43) > ISU (66)

Turnover Margin
K-State (56 | +7) > ISU (81)

Pass Defense
K-State (13 | +9) > ISU (50)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (87 | +11) > ISU (97)

Analysis

After comparing our relative statistics, I feel a lot better about this match-up. Iowa State has a marginally better offense than us, but not nearly better enough to offset our commanding advantage on defense and in the return game. Austen Arnaud basically is Carson Coffman with a few more touchdown passes, while Alexander Robinson is like a watered-down version of Daniel Thomas. Helping our cause is the loss of the Cyclones' second-leading receiver, Darius Reynolds, to a knee injury; although you never like to see a guy get hurt, I'll take anything we can get in our quest for what probably will be a rare Big 12 victory.

In addition to leading tackler Jesse Smith, keep an eye out for David Sims, who is tied with Tysyn Hartman for the league lead with three interceptions. Hopefully, Coffman keeps an eye out for him, as well. Iowa State's major edge defensively is that they have quite a few more tackles for loss than we do, indicating they actually have a legitimate defensive line. With any luck, this is our last week without Brandon Harold, so we'll just have to muddle through as best we can.

On a side note, what the hell is going on with our net punting? Not only has Ryan Doerr been a MAJOR disappointment as a place holder, but his leg hasn't been that impressive, either. Thank God he's only a redshirt freshman and has some time to improve, but it'd be nice if that improvement began this season. The only reason he's not the most appalling player on special teams is because of the chokejob artist formerly known as Josh Cherry.

And on that note, I'm going to go ahead and predict a loss in an attempt to reverse-jinx us into a win. Let's say we line up for the game-winning field goal, which Cherry shanks wide right for a crushing defeat. One-point loss? Point plankn.

Prediction: Iowa State 31, Kansas State 30
(One of the ISU touchdowns is a pick-six from Coffman to Sims.)

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Carson Coffman
FB: Braden Wilson
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Antonio Felder, Raphael Guidry
LB: John Houlik, Alex Hrebec
DB: Troy Butler, David Garrett, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

I'm not sure why I'm so pessimistic on the Big 12 in the major intersectional match-ups... just don't have a good feeling about either one. A&M hasn't proven crap yet and the last time we saw Landry Jones against an opponent with a pulse, he stunk it up. And just like everyone jumped on Miami's bandwagon way too fast, they jumped OFF of it way too fast, too.

New Mexico at Texas Tech (FSN)
Red Raiders 46, Lobos 19

Kent State at Baylor
Bears 42, Golden Flashes 25

Arkansas at Texas A&M (Arlington) (ESPN2)
Razorbacks 29, Aggies 27

#8 Oklahoma at #17 Miami (ABC)
Hurricanes 15, Sooners 14

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.