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SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- Big 12 North Roulette Edition

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via cdn0.sbnation.com

Another weekend, another crazy batch of results in the Big 12.  Our answers to the most pressing questions of the day are below.

This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

TB: Yes, they could compete with UT, but sadly, I can't say with certainty they would win.  I really miss 1996-2003.

Panjandrum: Honestly?  Yes.  It's not a silly question, per se, but to think that one team in this conference is THAT much better than an entire division is silly.  Texas is not a complete team themselves; they struggle running the football, and that will come back to bite them.

I get why someone would ask this question, but truthfully, the answer is simple.  The North all-star team would probably roll UT.

BracketCat: To properly answer this question, I need to see what such a team actually would look like. Here's my best stab at a two-deep:

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

Star-divide

Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

TB: K-State needs only one more win to get into a possible tiebreaker, and two more wins would probably win the division outright.  Two home games against division opponents remain.  Odds: 10-1
 
Nebraska is 1-2, so it needs to win three out of five if we assume a 4-4 tiebreaker, or four out of five if we assume 5-3 wins it.  Still has a home game with Oklahoma and road trips to Colorado and KU.  Oh, and no confidence right now.  Odds: 12-1
 
KU is 1-2 and, with road trips to Lubbock and Austin remaining, has zero margin for error.  Throw in a trip to Manhattan and playing Missouri in Kansas City, and this is looking more like history <s>a</s>waits.  Odds: 15-1
 
Missouri is 0-3 but by far has its easiest games left.  Still, they need to win out to get to 5-3, and that's a tall task for a team with a hobbled quarterback and a defense that's pointing fingers right now.  Odds: 15-1
 
While Iowa State is 2-2, they needed every bit of eight Nebraska turnovers to get there, and who knows how long they'll be without Austen Arnaud and Alexander Robinson.  Without those guys, it looks like a bleak picture for ISU, although it's entirely possible they get bowl eligible as they only need one more win.  Odds: 30-1
 
Colorado is 1-2, but has a coach who is hell-bent on playing his son at quarterback.  Also, can't win on the road.  Will be a threat at home, but they're the least likely team to take the division, in my opinion.  Odds: 50-1
 
Now, do you see why I'm not an oddsmaker?

Panjandrum: If the magic number is five, I will try and handicap how likely it is that each team gets to five wins:

KSU: KSU has two more home games against North teams (KU/MU) and two road games (OU/NU).  I still think NU beats KSU in Lincoln, but I'm going to favor KSU against KU and MU in Manhattan at this point.  Neither of those teams look good on the road, and KSU has played well enough at home to win.

Since KSU only needs to win two of their next four to get to five wins, they seem the most likely at this point.

Odds: 30%

Nebraska: I don't like discounting a team with a really good defense, but unless they get their offense right, i don't think they can win four of five to get to the title game.  A team with no confidence and a shaky QB situation is a bad, bad combo (just ask KSU about one month ago), but maybe the defense can carry them through.

Odds: 20%

Missouri: Missouri has to run the table to get to five wins.  However, that's a little more manageable now that they have NU, UT, and OSU off of the table.  We'll see how they fare against teams more on their level.  But, the real question is what their 'level' is without a healthy Gabbert.

Odds: 20%

Iowa State: The Clones are a real feel good story right now, but they shouldn't have gotten out of Lincoln with a win.  They need three wins, and with road games in College Station and Columbia, and a home game with Oklahoma State, I would say the chances of getting to five wins are pretty slim.

Odds: 15%

Kansas: KU needs four wins, and they have the most brutal schedule left of any of the North teams.  They have three true road games (Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State), one neutral site game (Missouri), and one home game (Nebraska).  There is no way in Hell that they're winning four games.  Truthfully, KU fans better hope they win one more to get bowl eligible with that schedule.

Odds: 10%

Colorado: I'm not even going to do an analysis.  Colorado is the worst football team I've watched KSU play this year (with the exception of the FCS teams).  Yes, I thought Louisiana was better.  They have no hope of winning the North or going to a bowl game, and Dan Hawkins should be fired because I can't stomach watching football that's that bad ever again.

Odds: 5%

BracketCat: Oh, man, I don't know jack about gambling. I'll defer to TB on this one.

Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

TB: I'll say that they showed they won't mail the season in.  Also, they showed that it wasn't a fluke that they lost close games to (relatively) good teams in the non-con and the RRS.  When it's all said and done, they'll be second or third in the South, meaning they'll be second or third in the conference overall.  Not what Oklahoma is used to, but with an all-new offensive line and the injury bug biting at every skill position, not bad.

Panjandrum: Oklahoma is like a lot of the other teams in this conference; they're incomplete.  Defensively, they're very, very good.  Offensively, they struggle.  I don't know if they're 'back on track' as much as exposed as a 'good but not great' team.

BracketCat: No, because KU sucks. Don't get me wrong -- Oklahoma is better than people have been giving them credit for, but the offense still is pretty painful to watch. Ironically, the Sooners remind me a lot of some of the classic TCU teams, including the one that beat them in Norman. Lots of defense, unimaginative offense. It's ironic because I think TCU would beat OU this year nine times out of 10.

Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

TB: They showed us each team's floor and each team's ceiling.  K-State is only as bad as it played in Lubbock on its worst night, and is only as good as it played against Texas A&M on its best.  Ditto A&M and Texas Tech.  I understand the punditry's desire to use logic as an explanation for every result, but sometimes everything just goes horribly wrong in a game played by 18-22 year olds.

Panjandrum: Honestly, I think this says more about A&M than it does about any other team.  I think they have a lot of weapons, but Mike Sherman is a mouth-breathing moron that can only gameplan a victory by blind luck.

BracketCat: They told me that comparative scoring is worthless and predicting game outcomes is all about understanding matchups. Texas Tech beat Kansas State because Tech's system is a terrible matchup for any team that has trouble scoring points. K-State beat Texas A&M because A&M hadn't yet played outside the state of Texas and was starting a gazillion freshman and sophomores.

A&M beat Tech because Tech always has had a problem with A) defending mobile quarterbacks once they get going, B) getting into a rhythm if the other team's running game is controlling the line of scrimmage, and C) turning it over repeatedly and losing at home to coaching geniuses like Dan Hawkins and Mike Sherman. See? Matchups.

Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

TB: Texas definitely needed a game where it got out to the races and put up big numbers and points.  I still think OSU does have what it takes.  It's going to be one of those special nights that, if the home team wins, its fans will never forget.  The stadium will be packed, the bright national spotlight will be shining, and the inside track to a division championship and, for Texas, a national championship, is at stake.  On paper, Texas looks better, but not overpoweringly better, and perhaps not enough to overcome the fired-up team they'll face Saturday.

Panjandrum: I think Texas is the best team in the conference, so beating a crippled Missouri team wasn't a surprise.  Oklahoma State is a talented team that could possibly pull off an upset, but it's going to take a monumental effort from Zac Robinson if that's going to happen.  No Dez Bryant or Kendall Hunter makes it that much more difficult.

BracketCat: In short, yes and yes. Texas got its act together just in time, because Oklahoma State has the running game to keep Colt McCoy off the field for long stretches of time. That said, I still think Texas will find a way to win this one. They just seem to have a hex over the Cowboys in Stillwater, even when they get down by multiple touchdowns as has happened many times in the past decade.

Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

TB:

1.  Texas -- Big tilt in Stillwater will decide this team's championship aspirations.
2.  Oklahoma State -- Quietly, Mike Gundy's crew is going about its business without its biggest stars, but the big test is Saturday.
3.  Oklahoma -- Maybe not a national title contender this year, but still vastly superior to any North foe.
4.  Texas Tech -- I'd like to drop the Pirates after that debacle in Lubbock, and I'm admonishing the Tech fans for chanting "No more Potts!"  Way to throw one of your own under the bus.  But back to the question: Who do you move ahead of these guys?
5.  K-State -- On this day, in this place, I have to rank them here.  The next four weeks will either solidify or decimate that opinion.
6.  Nebraska -- Through it all, they still have that defense.  Eight giveaways and ISU only scored nine points?  If they ever get their offense figured out and get healthy, they'll be back as the favorite to win the North.
7.  KU -- Any rational person knew they would probably lose to OU, but they didn't put up much of a fight and Todd Reesing doesn't look like himself right now.  Can make amends with a win in Lubbock, but let's just say I'm not counting on that.
8.  Missouri -- It's pretty simple right now.  If Blaine Gabbert gets healthy, they're a contender in the North again.  If he doesn't, they're not.
9.  Iowa State -- I can hear the gasp to my northeast as Cyclone fans wonder how I can rank them this low at 2-2.  Maybe it's a little unfair, but while you can't take that Nebraska win away from them, they needed every single one of NU's eight turnovers to win.  On average, that's not going to happen very often.
10.  Texas A&M -- This probably seems all wrong until you remember that some were ranking the Aggies 13th last week.  Very nice win over Tech, and we're probably still putting too much stock into the big loss at K-State, but I'm not sure who I can bump.
11.  Colorado -- Momentum from the KU win vanished in Manhattan.  Buffs need to regroup.
12.  Baylor -- Yeah.

Panjandrum:

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech
5. Nebraska
6. K-State
7. Missouri
8. Kansas
9. Texas A&M
10. Iowa State
11. Colorado
12. Baylor

BracketCat: Man, this gets harder every week.

1. Texas -- Finally playing like the most powerful team in the Big 12, and just in time.
2. Oklahoma -- Defense alone makes them the second-best team in the conference.
3. Oklahoma State -- After this week, both Oklahoma schools should have the same Big 12 record.
T4. Nebraska  -- Despite an embarrassing two-week stretch, I still think this is the most talented defense in the North. Combined with a sort-of-favorable schedule, it should be enough.
T4. Texas Tech -- You gave up 50+ to Mike Sherman? WTF? Sorry, that negates even the head-to-head tiebreaker.
T6. Kansas -- Let's just call this the muddied middle. It should sort itself out in the next three weeks.
T6. Iowa State -- Ditto. I'm making allowances for injuries here.
T6. Missouri -- Not as bad as their record, but not as good as the hype.
T6. Kansas State - Still not sure we're not a product of our schedule a little bit. Again, will know a lot more in three weeks.
10. Texas A&M -- Big win gets you out of the basement... for a while.
11. Baylor -- Despite meeting my 12th-place criteria with an ugly blowout loss at home, I still think the Bears would beat the Buffs on a neutral field.
12. Colorado -- Oops. Guess you actually do suck after all. You just sucked a little less than KU on one particular Saturday.

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Ties Bracket?

We want the truth!

I love the question about Texas vs. the Big 12 North. But I am in disagreement with you guys (maybe except for Bracket – looks like he changed his mind after he made the rosters – and for a good reason) but there is no way this team doesn’t roll the Longhorns. The Big 12 North as a whole may not be great, but we’ve got some damn fine players.

I am certain that a line consisting of Suh and Fitz on the left would get pressure on the quarterback every play. Suh gets pressure nearly every single play by himself – while doubleteamed!

The only question mark we have would be at quarterback. I’d probably give the nod to Reesing, but I’m not very confident he’s all-star caliber. When was the last time he won a big game? Crickets…that’s what I thought. If this was last season, I would have chosen Josh Freeman, Chase McDanielson, and possibly even Joe Ganz…no nevermind scratch that last one….over Reesing.

Big 12 North Rolls 62-14

Introducing the new 2008 Big 12 Football Champions: OU, UT*, TT*, and MU*!
Now Introducing the new 2009 Big 12 Baseball Tournament Champions: UT, KSU*, BU*, and MU*!

by mystman995 on Oct 29, 2009 8:44 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

BCS Playoff feel?

As I read through all the great analysis and look forward to all the great games to come in the next few weeks, I was wondering if this is what it would feel like during a BCS 8 team playoff. It’s fun to think about the matchups all week and watch it all unfold on Saturdays (not Thurs, Wed, or Fri.) All this is made so much more exciting when my favorite team is leading the race!

I really hope we can take care of KU & MU at home. I’m still haunted by our defensive meltdowns of the Prince years (last year!) I’d like to see our WRs get untracked. Lamark and Snipes have been invisible.

I also think we could give UT a good game if we can run the ball.

by ohiocats84 on Oct 29, 2009 9:53 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

In short, yes

A playoff would be like this, only with GOOD teams. It would be glorious.

by BracketCat on Oct 29, 2009 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

but Mike Sherman is a mouth-breathing moron that can only gameplan a victory by blind luck

Thanks for the great laugh this morning. Pulling for KState in the north this year since our games is already concluded. And I love this blog 2nd read of the morning. Good job here guys.

If you not having fun....then your not playing the game right.

by texastfan on Oct 29, 2009 9:57 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey, ya gotta admit. This beats the hell out of one team running away with the division!!

I like the fact that most teams still have a chance. It makes the remaining games much more meaningful. Basically, the next four weeks or so will have that ‘playoff’ feel that so many want for College Football (myself included). I also like the Cats getting a little confidence by the half way point in the year since that can make a big difference in close games. Hopefully, we can retain at least some of that confidence with a reasonably close game against a powerful OU team this weekend and get on a roll at home the following couple of weeks!

by jboot1 on Oct 29, 2009 10:18 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well if the trend continues

I’m all for getting blown out by OU in Norman (Tech in Lubbock), then beating the hell out of KU (A&M), and then winning a defensive battle with Mizzou (CU).

The trend is key to bowl eligibility!

Introducing the new 2008 Big 12 Football Champions: OU, UT*, TT*, and MU*!
Now Introducing the new 2009 Big 12 Baseball Tournament Champions: UT, KSU*, BU*, and MU*!

by mystman995 on Oct 29, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

good point mystman..

I was thinking the same thing. Get crushed by OU by 50 and then do the same to KU at home! Hell that might make the season right there, but a win over MU at least ties the north then.

I don’t know though. I have the same feeling about the OU game as I did with the tech game, but it would REALLY surprise me to have the same result. I think Snyder keeps it close but we probably come short. It’s actually about time he beats his old assistant in Norman. I’ll be screaming at the TV every play though!

Wildcat for life

by mjk7166 on Oct 29, 2009 10:48 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Oooh! Handicapping the North. That looks like fun. Can I play?

I followed Panjandrum’s lead of assuming that 5-3 will probably win this thing. I figured I’d assign probabilities to each team’s remaining games, multiply them together, then apply a few fudge factors and see what falls out.

Nebraska
20% = 50%(KU) * 50%(CU) * 80%(they beat KSU and don’t wind up in a head to head tiebreaker vs. ISU)
beat Baylor, lose to OU, tossups at KU & CU, favorite over KSU, need ISU under 5 wins or KSU with 5 wins

I know their stock is down after last week, but any defense that can give up only 9 points on 8 turnovers and keep their team within a field goal the entire game under those circumstances is a force to be reckoned with. That should keep them in every game, with the possible exception of Oklahoma. Whether the offense can close the deal is another matter, but they should at least have a chance every time and I doubt they lose all or even most of them.

K-State
20% = 50%(KU) * 50%(MU) * 80%(NU and MU don’t get 5 wins)
lose to OU, tossups vs. KU and MU, underdog at NU, need NU and MU under 5 wins

The ’Cats probably have the easiest path to 5 wins in the North at this point, mostly because they only need 2, but a loss makes them vulnerable on tiebreakers if that team gets to 5 wins.

Iowa State
13% = 50%(A&M) * 33%(MU) * 75%(KSU under 5 wins)
beat CU, lose to OSU, tossup at A&M, underdog at MU, need KSU under 5 wins

Getting to face CU(road variant) should get them to 3 conference wins (and a bowl game, go Cyclones!), which means they only need 2 more. While road games against Texas A&M and Missouri are not going to make that easy, it would still be far from the strangest thing that’s happened in the Big 12 this year. By the way, kudos to Paul Rhoads for doing everything he can to get “best coach in the Big 12” down to him and Bill Snyder.

Missouri
7% = 50%(CU) * 50%(KSU) * 50%(KU) * 67%(ISU) * 80%(NU under 5 wins)
beat Baylor, tossups vs. CU, KSU, KU, favorite over ISU, need NU under 5 wins

5 must win games, 1 gimme, 1 favored but not overwhelmingly so, 3 tossups. They’ll probably win 3 or 4, but all 5 … it’s more likely they’ll drop at least 1.

Kansas
5% = 33%(TT) * 50%(KSU) * 50%(NU) * 50%(MU)
lose to Texas, underdog at TT, tossups vs. KSU, NU, MU

If they lose at Tech, anything they do after that will be too little too late. The have had the toughest schedule in the North this year, but that just means the Colorado loss hurts them more. I’ll admit they do look good in 4-4 tiebreakers if the division winds up there and they’re in the mix, but they’re not a lock for even 4-4 at this point.

Colorado
0% = chance of CU winning a road game

Can’t win on the road, but could provide some interesting upsets at home.

Now those of you playing along at home will have realized that that all adds up to just 65%. So, you’re asking, “What about the other 35%?” Well I figure that’s the chance that it all ends up in a tangled mess at 4-4, but I won’t attempt to unravel that for two reasons: One, I value my sanity; Two, by the time I finished the season would be over.

I’ve got both Nebraska and K-State rated at 20%, but if I had to pick a favorite I think I’d go with Nebraska. They do better on tiebreakers, and while I’ve got the Colorado game as a tossup right now, that could easily change by the time it’s played, and I would bet on those changes favoring Nebraska. At any rate, all of this is subject to further revision as more information becomes available.

by grmann on Oct 29, 2009 6:05 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Love all the analytics on our board!

Now, about that healthcare problem….

Signed,
Sr. Financial Analyst in Ohio

by ohiocats84 on Oct 30, 2009 7:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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